That's just Bayesian reasoning. If you told me that you saw the sun rise in the east this morning, I'd probably believe you. If you told me that you saw the s

That's just Bayesian reasoning. If you told me that you saw the sun rise in the east this morning, I'd probably believe you. If you told me that you saw the sun rise in the north this morning, I'd probably not believe you. In both cases, "the data is the data," and all I have is your report. However, given a strong prior probability based on personal experience and first-principles reasoning, in the second case above I'm still more likely to think you mistaken than the conventional cosmological model wrong.