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The fact that Wallstreetbets and superstonk have picked up on this is a sure indication to me that this means absolutely nothing at all. Their track record appr

The fact that Wallstreetbets and superstonk have picked up on this is a sure indication to me that this means absolutely nothing at all. Their track record approaches 0%

tyleo 4y ago
What? Sure there is a lot of chaos in WSB but they really were onto something with GME and literally squeezed some institutional investors into bankruptcy. Sure, they are mostly smoke but their mere interest in something doesn’t disqualify it.
- mox1 4y ago
  So 'superstonk' was created after all that. It was basically the crazies from WSB after the WSB mods wanted to tone down the conspiracy theories. Prior to the GME squeeze, the talk on WallStreeBets was basically "GME is sound fundamentally, its got +revenue AND its shorted to hell, conditions are right for upward movement". It wasn't about sticking it to anyone, screwing hedge funds, etc, it was like "we think short sellers are perhaps screwing up here, we suggest you buy some GME".
- ixnay 4y ago
  They weren't on to something with GME, their enthusiasm was its cause.
  - tyleo 4y ago
    This is plainly wrong. Their enthusiasm did not create short interest in GameStop, they simply took advantage of it.
    - brookst 4y ago
      Sure, but it was self-fulfilling. It wasn't a brilliant analysis, it was a demonstration that a large group of loosely coordinated individual investors can move markets by collective action.
- pgwhalen 4y ago
  What exactly were they “onto” with GME? It isn’t exactly news that an investor with a short position will blow out if the stock increases in value by 10x or 100x.
  - tyleo 4y ago
    “It isn’t exactly news that…” interesting that you say this considering it literally was news for weeks. Short squeezes are rare events. Fact of the matter is WSB was right about GameStop when other investors were not. It may seem obvious now but was certainly not at the time.
    - pgwhalen 4y ago
      You've misread my comment. Of course it was news, but it didn't reveal anything spectacular about the structure of the financial markets, at least certainly not something WSB predicted ahead of time (as other commenters note, Superstonk only arose after the GameStop situation to concentrate financial conspiracy theories to that sub alone).
  - Invictus0 4y ago
    Something like 140% of outstanding GME shares were shorted. They figured that out and then exploited it.
    - david927 4y ago
      * are exploiting it It's still going
      - reducesuffering 4y ago
        GameStop as a business hasn't made any profit in 4 years while their revenues consistently decline. It is a dying unprofitable business, worth the scrap assets that can be salvaged on the balance sheet, not it's current market cap of $7.8 BILLION. Anyone buying or holding $GME is being swindled, a la FTX and crypto scams, by people interested in making big $$ betting against a $200m business being worth $7.8 BILLION. I'll bet you've never even had one look at their balance sheet or income statement, are just winging it from Reddit comments when it comes to financial evaluation, and that should tell anyone rational, including yourself hopefully, whether you're with the smart money on this position... If not, enjoy the new QAnon. r/wsb completed it's transformation into r/the_donald of dumb finance echo chamber by the advent of GME. Truly, they will both be case studies of the anti-wisdom of crowds when it comes to current digital interfaces with a sprinkle of bot propaganda.
- wavesounds 4y ago
  "their mere interest in something doesn’t disqualify it" - It certainly raises suspicions though. It really feels like certain groups have gotten good at turning particular news events or ideas into memes and sharing them as widely as possible in order to push a narrative that manipulates the markets. Which is probably why this story is now on the front page of HN. We certainly saw this with crypto and now it feels to me at least like those same tactics are being applied more and more to the larger stock market.
  - tyleo 4y ago
    I agree with this point. It isn’t the case that WSB interest disqualifies the viability of financial information… but it also doesn’t make it more credible. The point I disagree with (and I think the original post is making) is just because an unpopular group (WSB) is interested in something, doesn’t discredit it.
    - this_user 4y ago
      > The point I disagree with (and I think the original post is making) is just because an unpopular group (WSB) is interested in something, doesn’t discredit it. If that groups has consistently been wrong about everything for two years, then it absolutely does. It's like Jim Cramer: If he states something, there is at least a 90% chance that the opposite will happen.
      - qwytw 4y ago
        > there is at least a 90% chance that the opposite will happen. That'd be cool. You could make a lot of money. Unfortunately he's probably closer to 50%.
      - rcarr 4y ago
        They’re at 60% of the float locked up with DRS now. Once they get to 100% then the true measure of whether they were right or wrong can be ascertained.
- googlryas 4y ago
  WSB ignored or laughed at roaring kitty until he showed actual large gains, and then they jumped on. They never proactively got anything right as far as I know.
  - Firmwarrior 4y ago
    Man, you just dredged up a painful memory I was there watching him get shat upon, and thought "Man, maybe this guy's on to something.. ah, screw it, it's not worth the risk" He was consistently posting about GME for a long time, slowly losing his life's savings to its mediocre performance in the process and getting laughed at by everyone. Before GME took off, he'd actually stopped posting to WSB for the most part since he'd get jeered about it so much, haha.
david927 4y ago
That's bizarre logic. I'm a fan of Superstonk (WSB is long over). There's another couple years to go to see the track record. We'll see.
- paywallasinbeer 4y ago
  >I'm a fan of Superstonk Out of curiosity, why is that? Would you care to prove the profits you've made from following GME?
  - rcarr 4y ago
    Not a finance expert so apologies if any of this is wrong but from my understanding there’s a new strategy now. The theory, is that stock brokers are taking advantage of a mechanism which allows them to create and trade hundreds of thousands of ghost shares in GME that don’t really exist which, if true, means they can never lose and the casino is rigged. Superstonkers are direct registering their shares which means stock brokers don’t have any ability to trade them. The theory, is that once they direct register all the available shares it will expose the number of fake shares the brokers have created causing the mother of all short squeezes as people start calling in their positions but there are no real shares available for the brokers to purchase and fulfil their positions. The superstonkers think this will be enough to crash the entire market and expose the traders to fraud as there will be no legitimate reason that will hold up in court for the vast quantity of these imaginary shares - they believe the quantity will vastly outweigh the acceptable number that could be created for the purposes of the mechanism. The percentage of the shares that have been registered so far is around 60% and growing. Whether the Superstonkers are right or wrong about the outcome won’t be able to be determined until they reach 100% or maybe close to it if the brokers start panicking beforehand and a short starts. I don’t have any shares but it is really fun to watch as an outsider.
    - jcranmer 4y ago
      > The percentage of the shares that have been registered so far is around 60% and growing. I actually did a cursory search, and the actual number appears to be 23.4% as of the most recent filing.

The fact that Wallstreetbets and superstonk have picked up on this is a sure indication to me that this means absolutely nothing at all. Their track record approaches 0%

tyleo 4y ago

What? Sure there is a lot of chaos in WSB but they really were onto something with GME and literally squeezed some institutional investors into bankruptcy. Sure, they are mostly smoke but their mere interest in something doesn’t disqualify it.

mox1 4y ago
So 'superstonk' was created after all that. It was basically the crazies from WSB after the WSB mods wanted to tone down the conspiracy theories. Prior to the GME squeeze, the talk on WallStreeBets was basically "GME is sound fundamentally, its got +revenue AND its shorted to hell, conditions are right for upward movement". It wasn't about sticking it to anyone, screwing hedge funds, etc, it was like "we think short sellers are perhaps screwing up here, we suggest you buy some GME".
ixnay 4y ago
They weren't on to something with GME, their enthusiasm was its cause.
- tyleo 4y ago
  This is plainly wrong. Their enthusiasm did not create short interest in GameStop, they simply took advantage of it.
  - brookst 4y ago
    Sure, but it was self-fulfilling. It wasn't a brilliant analysis, it was a demonstration that a large group of loosely coordinated individual investors can move markets by collective action.
pgwhalen 4y ago
What exactly were they “onto” with GME? It isn’t exactly news that an investor with a short position will blow out if the stock increases in value by 10x or 100x.
- tyleo 4y ago
  “It isn’t exactly news that…” interesting that you say this considering it literally was news for weeks. Short squeezes are rare events. Fact of the matter is WSB was right about GameStop when other investors were not. It may seem obvious now but was certainly not at the time.
  - pgwhalen 4y ago
    You've misread my comment. Of course it was news, but it didn't reveal anything spectacular about the structure of the financial markets, at least certainly not something WSB predicted ahead of time (as other commenters note, Superstonk only arose after the GameStop situation to concentrate financial conspiracy theories to that sub alone).
- Invictus0 4y ago
  Something like 140% of outstanding GME shares were shorted. They figured that out and then exploited it.
  - david927 4y ago
    * are exploiting it It's still going
    - reducesuffering 4y ago
      GameStop as a business hasn't made any profit in 4 years while their revenues consistently decline. It is a dying unprofitable business, worth the scrap assets that can be salvaged on the balance sheet, not it's current market cap of $7.8 BILLION. Anyone buying or holding $GME is being swindled, a la FTX and crypto scams, by people interested in making big $$ betting against a $200m business being worth $7.8 BILLION. I'll bet you've never even had one look at their balance sheet or income statement, are just winging it from Reddit comments when it comes to financial evaluation, and that should tell anyone rational, including yourself hopefully, whether you're with the smart money on this position... If not, enjoy the new QAnon. r/wsb completed it's transformation into r/the_donald of dumb finance echo chamber by the advent of GME. Truly, they will both be case studies of the anti-wisdom of crowds when it comes to current digital interfaces with a sprinkle of bot propaganda.
wavesounds 4y ago
"their mere interest in something doesn’t disqualify it" - It certainly raises suspicions though. It really feels like certain groups have gotten good at turning particular news events or ideas into memes and sharing them as widely as possible in order to push a narrative that manipulates the markets. Which is probably why this story is now on the front page of HN. We certainly saw this with crypto and now it feels to me at least like those same tactics are being applied more and more to the larger stock market.
- tyleo 4y ago
  I agree with this point. It isn’t the case that WSB interest disqualifies the viability of financial information… but it also doesn’t make it more credible. The point I disagree with (and I think the original post is making) is just because an unpopular group (WSB) is interested in something, doesn’t discredit it.
  - this_user 4y ago
    > The point I disagree with (and I think the original post is making) is just because an unpopular group (WSB) is interested in something, doesn’t discredit it. If that groups has consistently been wrong about everything for two years, then it absolutely does. It's like Jim Cramer: If he states something, there is at least a 90% chance that the opposite will happen.
    - qwytw 4y ago
      > there is at least a 90% chance that the opposite will happen. That'd be cool. You could make a lot of money. Unfortunately he's probably closer to 50%.
    - rcarr 4y ago
      They’re at 60% of the float locked up with DRS now. Once they get to 100% then the true measure of whether they were right or wrong can be ascertained.
googlryas 4y ago
WSB ignored or laughed at roaring kitty until he showed actual large gains, and then they jumped on. They never proactively got anything right as far as I know.
- Firmwarrior 4y ago
  Man, you just dredged up a painful memory I was there watching him get shat upon, and thought "Man, maybe this guy's on to something.. ah, screw it, it's not worth the risk" He was consistently posting about GME for a long time, slowly losing his life's savings to its mediocre performance in the process and getting laughed at by everyone. Before GME took off, he'd actually stopped posting to WSB for the most part since he'd get jeered about it so much, haha.

david927 4y ago

That's bizarre logic. I'm a fan of Superstonk (WSB is long over). There's another couple years to go to see the track record. We'll see.

paywallasinbeer 4y ago
>I'm a fan of Superstonk Out of curiosity, why is that? Would you care to prove the profits you've made from following GME?
- rcarr 4y ago
  Not a finance expert so apologies if any of this is wrong but from my understanding there’s a new strategy now. The theory, is that stock brokers are taking advantage of a mechanism which allows them to create and trade hundreds of thousands of ghost shares in GME that don’t really exist which, if true, means they can never lose and the casino is rigged. Superstonkers are direct registering their shares which means stock brokers don’t have any ability to trade them. The theory, is that once they direct register all the available shares it will expose the number of fake shares the brokers have created causing the mother of all short squeezes as people start calling in their positions but there are no real shares available for the brokers to purchase and fulfil their positions. The superstonkers think this will be enough to crash the entire market and expose the traders to fraud as there will be no legitimate reason that will hold up in court for the vast quantity of these imaginary shares - they believe the quantity will vastly outweigh the acceptable number that could be created for the purposes of the mechanism. The percentage of the shares that have been registered so far is around 60% and growing. Whether the Superstonkers are right or wrong about the outcome won’t be able to be determined until they reach 100% or maybe close to it if the brokers start panicking beforehand and a short starts. I don’t have any shares but it is really fun to watch as an outsider.
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    > The percentage of the shares that have been registered so far is around 60% and growing. I actually did a cursory search, and the actual number appears to be 23.4% as of the most recent filing.