There are no exponentials in real life, only S-curves. A given exponential may not flatten anytime soon, or it may flatten tomorrow. I'm generally a techno-op

There are no exponentials in real life, only S-curves. A given exponential may not flatten anytime soon, or it may flatten tomorrow. I'm generally a techno-optimist, but looking at high-level numbers and trends and then drawing fantastical conclusions as if those trends are infinite is just... juvenile. Take his first example of Boston Dynamic's progress in robotics (showing the various robot dances/acrobatics) and then talking about how some time this decade we'll have humanoid sci-fi robot assistants (he specifically cites Rosie from the Jetsons). Yeah, Boston Dynamics has done some amazing work and has some great marketing, let me know when a big dog variant can go down all the flights of stairs in my house (some are carpeted, some are smooth), open my top-loading washing machine, sort through a pile of wet, clumped-together clothing for my wife's bras because those need to be hang-dried (additionally they're in a white mesh bag, so the robot needs to undo the zipper, unfold the drying rack, pull them out of the bag individually and hang them up), put the remainder in the dryer, clean the lint filter, manipulate the dryer controls to their proper settings based on visual observation/deduction of what was just washed, and start the dryer. Never mind other household chores. Oh, the issue is we need to make washers and dryers more robot-accessible you say? Cool, who's going to buy me a new high-end washer/dryer? My landlord? I still don't own a home and my kids' college funds need filling, and I have a washer/dryer that works. So I'm not getting new appliances until something breaks beyond repair, and then I'll be taking the most reliable option at the lowest price, which won't be any shiny new tech. Maybe rich people can afford the robot-friendly appliances of the next ten years, if this guy is to be believed. The rest of us will do laundry more-or-less like it's 1949. Nobody likes being the bucket of cold water, but blind optimism is just denial. I imagine this guy is just assuming "AI" is going to fix the problems I mentioned above. Yeah we can't even get self-driving cars to be reliable on government-regulated roads without insane amounts of effort. I'll believe it when it's more than a power-point slide