I think there are two roughly important rates to consider here: 1) Peter Thiel’s 10x improvement concept from Zero-to-One. 2) The exponentially increasing rat

I think there are two roughly important rates to consider here: 1) Peter Thiel’s 10x improvement concept from Zero-to-One. 2) The exponentially increasing rate of AI research and improvement. additionally, a third point is relevant: 3) Max Tegmark’s idea that the best AI agents will have been generated by AI. I think we’re seeing an ‘intelligence’ explosion begin to rustle from its sleep. It’s difficult to predict when it’s coming, but I don’t think SE’s are the ones with the safest jobs. The inflection point will be a ChatGPT that costs $10k/yr to run, as that’s basically a 10x improvement in the cost of devs.