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> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require [... for]
by 3pt14159 4y ago
> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require [... for] electric needs without losing money on every load.
> Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business.
This is a basic economics problem then. The cost of writing the software. The cost of hydrocarbons. The cost of electricity. The cost of time. The cost of maintenance. The cost of breakdowns.
I don't know too much about long haul trucking, but I know a decent amount about vehicles in general, and I have an engineering degree so my knowledge of physics is better than average.
I have yet to see a compelling reason why non-electrified trucks will survive. If you only look at the cost of breakdowns and fuel, and compare it to the cost of time, those breakdowns will pay for themselves. Completely leaving aside self driving technology. Even if we have to pay for drivers for the next thirty years. It does not matter.
Everything else will bend around the basic economics of electrified trucking. The law, the charging stations, the software, the schedules, everything. When an industry has such tiny margins as you correctly observe, an entrance of a technology can that can only serve a niche, but at extremely wide margins compared to existing players, will absolutely dominate.
There is a reason Pepsi is one of their first major buyers. The soft drinks are in the cities. But as these trucks dominate there more research will go into supporting them elsewhere. Fast swappable batteries, MASER charging along highways, more charge points per truck.
It doesn't matter. All these problems will be eaten by the massive wave of cash coming towards them by the early entrants that applied the technology where it was most suited in the short-term.
And then after that we'll get self-driving and it will be truly lights out for the legacy logistics companies. The only question is where in the five to fifty year period that will be.
- bluGill 4y agoFor trips to very remote places that get shipments once a week or so diesel with the ability to strap on extra tanks seems like a niche that will last for a long time. And collectors will keep a handful of engiens going. Probably other niches too, but the vast majority seem like ev is the future.