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> The exponential advances in technology and their convergences are making it possible to solve some of the grand challenges of humanity: problems such as disea

> The exponential advances in technology and their convergences are making it possible to solve some of the grand challenges of humanity: problems such as disease, hunger, lack of clean water, energy shortages, and poor education. Amazing things are now possible. Exponentialist technosolutionism at its best. Unfazed on the face of the technology hype of the past decade contributing nothing substantial on the very real and growing challenges humanity is facing and actually intentionally degrading various critical social contracts. Yes, amazing things are now possible, no amount of realistic pessimism can negate this. But are they remotely probable?

ben_w 4y ago
Just as that quote is over-optimistic, I think you’re over-pessimistic. Specifically, with regard to energy, PV went from 70.5 GW to 850 GW between 2010 and 2020, while the cost per Watt of a module went from $1-2 to $0.1-0.2 in the same period: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics But yeah, from a purely technological point of view and disregarding all the politics relating to this that have actually held this back in the real world, we could’ve fixed most of today’s pressing disease issues — and probably all hunger, clean water, and education issues — decades ago, perhaps even before 1900, but certainly by 1950.
- college_physics 4y ago
  You might be right. You better be right :-). Energy should be a solvable problem on a planet drenched (quite democratically) with sunlight. Lots of other challenges piggybag on energy tech... and so forth. The pessimism is just a reflection of how successfully we have managed to actually not use technology anywhere close to its potential for so long and how tech "naturally" gravitates to its worst possible use. E.g., we don't have drones for delivering anything useful but we do have drones for delivering munitions and visiting death. The channels that would help unleash the positive potential are missing or severely limited and there is little indication that this is going to change in the short term. Fundamentally the reason for this irrational and emotionally broken behavior is that the absolute state of the human condition and any deficit versus a theoretical optimum is not a relevant concern. Politics and the overwhelming energy and effort associated with it is about managing relative status. Persistently poor or even deteriorating conditions for the entire collective are not a problem unless they threaten an existing social organization. So "progress" proceeds at the "minimum required" pace.
- scottLobster 4y ago
  Not an expert, but my understanding is Solar is only so cheap due to Chinese strategic industrial dumping. That's an artificial, political distortion that will likely evaporate in the near future.
  - college_physics 4y ago
    there is a long-running secular trend [0] that simply reflects the general efficiencies that accrue as we dig deeper into and manage to optimize specific science/engineering domains. the Chinese dumping politics might be real / relevant as of late but is just a small part in a long story [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Dumping (selling below manufacturing cost) is only viable in the short term. Let's check back in ten years, and see if LONGi, JA Solar, Trina, Jinko, Hanwha, and company are still in business, and what happened to price.
friend_and_foe 4y ago
It's negativity bias. Lots of big problems have been solved with technology. We just dont think of them because they're not problems anymore. The author may be wrong about what problems they expect to be solved, or even the rate at which problems will be solved, but technological development solves problems, that's why it exists in the first place.
- college_physics 4y ago
  technology also created enormous problems and some of them may become existential. we just don't think of them because we assume that's how things are and there is no alternative. I am not anti-tech btw, just very skeptical that we have the social and political maturity to benefit from its powers without creating more harm than good.
  - friend_and_foe 4y ago
    I agree with you, but I'd say the proof is in the pudding. 8 billion people, a third of which live very comfortable lives. Technology has solved a lot more problems than it has created. It is yet to be determined if we have crossed the threshold of diminishing returns, it's possible further progress leads to more problems than it solves, and also one thing to consider is all technology doesn't contribute equally to problems and solutions, so the direction of advancement has a lot to do with it also.

ben_w 4y ago

Just as that quote is over-optimistic, I think you’re over-pessimistic. Specifically, with regard to energy, PV went from 70.5 GW to 850 GW between 2010 and 2020, while the cost per Watt of a module went from $1-2 to $0.1-0.2 in the same period: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics But yeah, from a purely technological point of view and disregarding all the politics relating to this that have actually held this back in the real world, we could’ve fixed most of today’s pressing disease issues — and probably all hunger, clean water, and education issues — decades ago, perhaps even before 1900, but certainly by 1950.

college_physics 4y ago
You might be right. You better be right :-). Energy should be a solvable problem on a planet drenched (quite democratically) with sunlight. Lots of other challenges piggybag on energy tech... and so forth. The pessimism is just a reflection of how successfully we have managed to actually not use technology anywhere close to its potential for so long and how tech "naturally" gravitates to its worst possible use. E.g., we don't have drones for delivering anything useful but we do have drones for delivering munitions and visiting death. The channels that would help unleash the positive potential are missing or severely limited and there is little indication that this is going to change in the short term. Fundamentally the reason for this irrational and emotionally broken behavior is that the absolute state of the human condition and any deficit versus a theoretical optimum is not a relevant concern. Politics and the overwhelming energy and effort associated with it is about managing relative status. Persistently poor or even deteriorating conditions for the entire collective are not a problem unless they threaten an existing social organization. So "progress" proceeds at the "minimum required" pace.
scottLobster 4y ago
Not an expert, but my understanding is Solar is only so cheap due to Chinese strategic industrial dumping. That's an artificial, political distortion that will likely evaporate in the near future.
- college_physics 4y ago
  there is a long-running secular trend [0] that simply reflects the general efficiencies that accrue as we dig deeper into and manage to optimize specific science/engineering domains. the Chinese dumping politics might be real / relevant as of late but is just a small part in a long story [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Dumping (selling below manufacturing cost) is only viable in the short term. Let's check back in ten years, and see if LONGi, JA Solar, Trina, Jinko, Hanwha, and company are still in business, and what happened to price.

friend_and_foe 4y ago

It's negativity bias. Lots of big problems have been solved with technology. We just dont think of them because they're not problems anymore. The author may be wrong about what problems they expect to be solved, or even the rate at which problems will be solved, but technological development solves problems, that's why it exists in the first place.

college_physics 4y ago
technology also created enormous problems and some of them may become existential. we just don't think of them because we assume that's how things are and there is no alternative. I am not anti-tech btw, just very skeptical that we have the social and political maturity to benefit from its powers without creating more harm than good.
- friend_and_foe 4y ago
  I agree with you, but I'd say the proof is in the pudding. 8 billion people, a third of which live very comfortable lives. Technology has solved a lot more problems than it has created. It is yet to be determined if we have crossed the threshold of diminishing returns, it's possible further progress leads to more problems than it solves, and also one thing to consider is all technology doesn't contribute equally to problems and solutions, so the direction of advancement has a lot to do with it also.