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> I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into

> I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media? Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people. Underpromise and overimpress me. Enough with this overpromising-because-have-to as if that's the only way to innovate or get investment. It isn't the only way and I wish investors would do a little more due diligence to get behind innovators who know what they are doing, not just throwing money at cool things saying they'll be ready by the end of the year over an 8 year period.

AYBABTME 4y ago
People want EV transportation because the world population is at risk. So they cut some slack to Tesla. Tesla makes compelling vehicles even if flawed. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals?
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  People want point of care testing, and everyone is at risk of dying of cancer. Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals? Oh wait...
  - oxplot 4y ago
    What a disingenuous analogy to make, between Tesla that has delivered time and time again and surpassed expectations, led the market for the past 10 years and continues to outsell all of its century old competitors, with Theranos which burnt investor money and never produced a working machine, ever.
    - Planktonne 4y ago
      > Tesla that has delivered time and time again and surpassed expectations Tesla has consistently failed to meet the expectations set by its own management.
      - oxplot 4y ago
        It's called aiming high!
        dmitriid 4y ago
        "We want FSD some day and are working on it" is aiming high. Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying
        oxplot 4y ago
        > Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying OK, finally an actual example and the one I expected. TL;DR is that if Tesla was in fact doing anything the regulators found to be hurting the customers, they would be forcing Tesla to make changes (and they have re FSD in some minor ways). It's fun to make a big deal about nothing but no one is buying FSD and thinking, Tesla robbed me $10K. They get it, play with it, it doesn't do what they promised, they can get a refund for the FSD package, and even a full refund for the entire car. People tend to keep their Teslas, so that's a non issue. Majority of people don't buy Teslas for promise of FSD (in fact, most don't even believe it). They buy it because right now, it's a great car. As far as delivering great cars is concerned (which is the vast majority of cases), Tesla has delivered time and again. Also, Tesla has never lied about FSD, only missing deadlines. If anything, their progress has shown anything but any attempt to lie to customers. They are moving as fast as they can and no one in the industry comes close. I'll be happy to see, for once, someone talk about misleading marketing about anything but FSD. You can take FSD away any day and it won't make a blip of difference to Tesla's sales or margins.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    The problem with that, is that “Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction.” wasn’t true, and that’s why Elizabeth Holmes was convicted for fraud. Now, I’m not happy that Tesla is still calling the driving assistance software “autopilot” given some governments are criticising this name choice as misleading, but it’s not like the (limited and not ready) software is completely fictional — it can actually get people from A to B by itself, even if though it really isn’t at the quality level where this is a generally wise replacement for most humans, but only for, e.g. impaired humans in a medical emergency and even then it’s really only sane on highways (old story, but probably still illustrative based on the published safety statistics): https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/08/tesla-model-x-missouri-medical-emergency https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/08/tesla-mod... However, considering Tesla as an EV company rather than as an AI company: it does what it says on the tin. There’s no secret gasoline tank hiding inside the batteries.
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      It was true. They had 2-3 working tests running on their machines by the end of the company. They sold over 100. In my mind, this is the same as advertising "the human is only there for liability reasons" on an L2 ADAS system. As to what Tesla is, the moment people accept that it's an EV company, I will be happy. The market currently does not, largely due to the insane promises of the company's CEO. Let's not forget that Elizabeth Holmes was acquitted of defrauding patients. She was convicted of defrauding investors. What's the difference?
      - avgDev 4y ago
        Theranos defrauded investors. Lied about their product and NEVER delivered on what was promised.
oxplot 4y ago
Outcomes speak for themselves. Tesla has had their timelines set back years and they're still ahead of everyone else in every category and their products sell like hot cakes. People who actually care about innovation and progress aren't pedantic about slipped timelines, panel gaps or hiccups, ESPECIALLY on projects that are on the cutting edge. If you think investors, most of whom worked their ass off to build their capital, are so gullible, over so many years, then you're not giving them enough credit (unless you think Tesla is misleading investors Theranos style - at which point, I'm off). As for the whole Apple situation. If all companies tried to do what Apple does all the time, we'd be living in the stone age. Apple is an exception to the rule in that they're perfectionists in their tiny little bubble. Perhaps you didn't catch Apple's abondoned plan to build their own car. Did you hear about Dyson? Making an EV you can actually sell for profit is something even Apple, with all their money and talent, can't do and Tesla does like it's child play. Tesla has has the highest per unit margin of any automaker out there by factors of 3x and more. Apple does not hold a single candle to Tesla.
- jonasdegendt 4y ago
  I largely agree with you but if I can be pedantic, they’re not the only manufacturer with high margins, Porsche does too for example. Teslas are still a luxury vehicle so it’s no surprise they’re able to fetch higher margins than say, Toyota, who’s main sales are economy cars. Apples to apples and all.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Tesla is about to overtake companies like BMW who have existed for 100 years. They already outsell Porsche. And without having entered into major markets like Pickups, Semis and a number of others. And they make their margin on EV, while many other companies simply lose money on EV and simply hide that fact. Or make minimal margin on the cars and lose money on EV overall. Only a few years ago it was widely believed that you can't make money on EVs.
  - vel0city 4y ago
    Another concept to look at for margin comparison is the fact all the other manufacturers are still playing the dealer network game. Lots of the profits on the cars aren't going to the old manufacturers, it's going to the local dealers. Tesla doesn't have dealers, so all the dealer profits go to Tesla.
TeMPOraL 4y ago
> When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media? Since forever? You're comparing a new product category with already existing and optimized one. To keep close to the topic, think about the history of ICEs and cars in general: the first ones that got popular were all pretty much beta products. > Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people. That's some pretty revisionist history. Apple made solid, polished hardware, in an established market with plenty of competition. About the only large leap they made was with the first iPhone, and it's considered both transformative and very much a beta version.
- bombcar 4y ago
  People forget just how basic (and sometimes bad!) the original of many things was. And everyone has an iPhone now but they didn’t all buy the first one, neither. The original iPod was Mac only and FireWire, for goodness sake! People made do and it improved over time.

AYBABTME 4y ago

People want EV transportation because the world population is at risk. So they cut some slack to Tesla. Tesla makes compelling vehicles even if flawed. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals?

pclmulqdq 4y ago
People want point of care testing, and everyone is at risk of dying of cancer. Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals? Oh wait...
- oxplot 4y ago
  What a disingenuous analogy to make, between Tesla that has delivered time and time again and surpassed expectations, led the market for the past 10 years and continues to outsell all of its century old competitors, with Theranos which burnt investor money and never produced a working machine, ever.
  - Planktonne 4y ago
    > Tesla that has delivered time and time again and surpassed expectations Tesla has consistently failed to meet the expectations set by its own management.
    - oxplot 4y ago
      It's called aiming high!
      - dmitriid 4y ago
        "We want FSD some day and are working on it" is aiming high. Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying
      - oxplot 4y ago
        > Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying OK, finally an actual example and the one I expected. TL;DR is that if Tesla was in fact doing anything the regulators found to be hurting the customers, they would be forcing Tesla to make changes (and they have re FSD in some minor ways). It's fun to make a big deal about nothing but no one is buying FSD and thinking, Tesla robbed me $10K. They get it, play with it, it doesn't do what they promised, they can get a refund for the FSD package, and even a full refund for the entire car. People tend to keep their Teslas, so that's a non issue. Majority of people don't buy Teslas for promise of FSD (in fact, most don't even believe it). They buy it because right now, it's a great car. As far as delivering great cars is concerned (which is the vast majority of cases), Tesla has delivered time and again. Also, Tesla has never lied about FSD, only missing deadlines. If anything, their progress has shown anything but any attempt to lie to customers. They are moving as fast as they can and no one in the industry comes close. I'll be happy to see, for once, someone talk about misleading marketing about anything but FSD. You can take FSD away any day and it won't make a blip of difference to Tesla's sales or margins.
- ben_w 4y ago
  The problem with that, is that “Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction.” wasn’t true, and that’s why Elizabeth Holmes was convicted for fraud. Now, I’m not happy that Tesla is still calling the driving assistance software “autopilot” given some governments are criticising this name choice as misleading, but it’s not like the (limited and not ready) software is completely fictional — it can actually get people from A to B by itself, even if though it really isn’t at the quality level where this is a generally wise replacement for most humans, but only for, e.g. impaired humans in a medical emergency and even then it’s really only sane on highways (old story, but probably still illustrative based on the published safety statistics): https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/08/tesla-model-x-missouri-medical-emergency https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/08/tesla-mod... However, considering Tesla as an EV company rather than as an AI company: it does what it says on the tin. There’s no secret gasoline tank hiding inside the batteries.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    It was true. They had 2-3 working tests running on their machines by the end of the company. They sold over 100. In my mind, this is the same as advertising "the human is only there for liability reasons" on an L2 ADAS system. As to what Tesla is, the moment people accept that it's an EV company, I will be happy. The market currently does not, largely due to the insane promises of the company's CEO. Let's not forget that Elizabeth Holmes was acquitted of defrauding patients. She was convicted of defrauding investors. What's the difference?
    - avgDev 4y ago
      Theranos defrauded investors. Lied about their product and NEVER delivered on what was promised.

oxplot 4y ago

Outcomes speak for themselves. Tesla has had their timelines set back years and they're still ahead of everyone else in every category and their products sell like hot cakes. People who actually care about innovation and progress aren't pedantic about slipped timelines, panel gaps or hiccups, ESPECIALLY on projects that are on the cutting edge. If you think investors, most of whom worked their ass off to build their capital, are so gullible, over so many years, then you're not giving them enough credit (unless you think Tesla is misleading investors Theranos style - at which point, I'm off). As for the whole Apple situation. If all companies tried to do what Apple does all the time, we'd be living in the stone age. Apple is an exception to the rule in that they're perfectionists in their tiny little bubble. Perhaps you didn't catch Apple's abondoned plan to build their own car. Did you hear about Dyson? Making an EV you can actually sell for profit is something even Apple, with all their money and talent, can't do and Tesla does like it's child play. Tesla has has the highest per unit margin of any automaker out there by factors of 3x and more. Apple does not hold a single candle to Tesla.

jonasdegendt 4y ago
I largely agree with you but if I can be pedantic, they’re not the only manufacturer with high margins, Porsche does too for example. Teslas are still a luxury vehicle so it’s no surprise they’re able to fetch higher margins than say, Toyota, who’s main sales are economy cars. Apples to apples and all.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Tesla is about to overtake companies like BMW who have existed for 100 years. They already outsell Porsche. And without having entered into major markets like Pickups, Semis and a number of others. And they make their margin on EV, while many other companies simply lose money on EV and simply hide that fact. Or make minimal margin on the cars and lose money on EV overall. Only a few years ago it was widely believed that you can't make money on EVs.
- vel0city 4y ago
  Another concept to look at for margin comparison is the fact all the other manufacturers are still playing the dealer network game. Lots of the profits on the cars aren't going to the old manufacturers, it's going to the local dealers. Tesla doesn't have dealers, so all the dealer profits go to Tesla.

TeMPOraL 4y ago

> When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media? Since forever? You're comparing a new product category with already existing and optimized one. To keep close to the topic, think about the history of ICEs and cars in general: the first ones that got popular were all pretty much beta products. > Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people. That's some pretty revisionist history. Apple made solid, polished hardware, in an established market with plenty of competition. About the only large leap they made was with the first iPhone, and it's considered both transformative and very much a beta version.

bombcar 4y ago
People forget just how basic (and sometimes bad!) the original of many things was. And everyone has an iPhone now but they didn’t all buy the first one, neither. The original iPod was Mac only and FireWire, for goodness sake! People made do and it improved over time.