6 ms·

A grenade (or IED) or two thrown in coordination into a few of those local-area transformer / power distribution stations would cause state-level chaos. Where

A grenade (or IED) or two thrown in coordination into a few of those local-area transformer / power distribution stations would cause state-level chaos. Where I live, these seemingly critical infrastructure outposts, are protected by nothing more than high chicken-wire fences. Cyber Squirrel is the best and longest-lived exemplification of the sensitivity and scale of this vulnerability: https://cybersquirrel1.com/ https://cybersquirrel1.com/ This being my favourite: 14.01.2015 Eagle Geraldton, WA, Australia Sheep's head dropped by eagle blamed for power outage

dmix 4y ago
Apparently "Lead time on replacement parts" is the biggest issue today with dealing with the issue in a prompt time frame. Maybe they should stock up on at least 1x set of repair parts that would take a long timeframe to replace? Ukraine has shown how important electric substation part supply chains are.
- BLKNSLVR 4y ago
  Quoting from the movie Contact: "Why build one, when you could build two for twice the price?" I'd assume this isn't standard procedure, but agree that it should be, considering the increasing importance of power supply to society and in the current terror-paranoia state of the world.
  - dmix 4y ago
    It's probably as idealistic as it gets, governments acting in the long-term interests extending beyond their elected position AND hopefully not turning a it into something costing 10x and 2x as long. But maybe it can focus on a limited set of parts? Terrorism and security has always been a great motivator for gov capital. Although it typically goes to Washington consultants rather than spending it on critical parts.
    - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
      Based on actual events (ie. fiction): The report, which cost taxpayers $x million, recommended the purchase of spare parts costing $y thousand, which would reduce the downtime of power transmission, due to the failure of these parts, to hours rather than days or possibly weeks. Actions based on this report are due to be debated following the election, due to be held in 8 months' time.
  - dismalpedigree 4y ago
    This is Duke Energy we are talking about. No way are they going to allocate capital to tons of spares when they could be buying back shares.
  - myself248 4y ago
    I've heard, but have no sources for it, that it's difficult to scale up production of large transformers. And as everyone's said, without government invention, there's no money in having a reserve. It's even worse if the _rate_ of consumption doesn't go up, then adding production to build up a reserve is folly, because the plant is guaranteed to go idle once the reserve is achieved. So, I don't have high hopes for that, at least not in a significant way. Going the other way, decentralizing the grid, putting solar and batteries on as many homes as possible, is already happening. There's already financial incentive. Utilities are adding _disincentives_ every chance they get, because they see it as reducing their customer base, rather than adding resiliency. But, customers and regulators are pushing back, and the situation in most places isn't terrible. And as a result, it's scaling up as fast as the market can scale it. Neither of these things will solve the problem completely, but I think we'll meet in the middle. Over the coming years, an interconnected grid will become decreasingly relevant for larger and larger fractions of the population. And outages, and even the very concept of outages, will approach quaint-memory status. Initially and particularly, this will benefit folks out in the boonies with lots of land for panels, who are usually on the losing end of the response time for outage restoration in the first place.
    - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
      I was previously going to mention the decentralisation that could be provided by micro-grids as a mitigating factor, but don't know enough about how they work to know whether it's just replacing one vulnerability for another, but your mention of home batteries reminds me that, with micro-grids, it should be possible to narrow down to a single household "island" level of granularity if all households have solar and batteries (and the same argument for apartment blocks at equivalent scale). Ideally, this allows for each individual unit (household, apartment complex, commercial building) to bear the costs of the "reserve assets" at the same time as being able to take advantage of them down to that granular level - as long as their battery is able to hold out and their solar able to recharge it. And the reserve assets being smaller, fit better into a manufacturing scenario as there should be a more consistent, less surge-style, demand.
      - fbdab103 4y ago
- SoylentYellow 4y ago
  Exactly. Critical infrastructure needs a strategic reserve.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- baybal2 4y ago
- jrs235 4y ago
  There's a 1 year lead time for reserve replacement parts too. And if everyone orders now because of long lead times then the lead time will increase (for non reserve replacement we need it now parts).
- throw0101c 4y ago
  Examples: > The supply chain for grid components is even tighter now than it was earlier this year, Robinson said. The lead time for large-scale transformers is 90 weeks on average and the lead time for distribution transformers is six to nine months, she said. * https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/101322-despite-incentives-us-manufacturers-still-could-fall-short-of-renewable-grid-demand https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight... > “I deal with a number of different clients on the utility side and about a year ago we started to see lead times from transformer manufacturers creep up. Before the pandemic, you could get a large transformer ordered in less than a year. Today that is rare. A relatively large manufacturer in the US was at about 38 months. That used to be 38 weeks if you were to compare,” Templeton said. […] > It is still relatively easy to get a 10 MVA transformer from a supplier utilities know and are used to dealing with, but a 1000 MVA transformer might not be available from a reliable source, Templeton said. * https://www.tdworld.com/utility-business/article/21243198/transformative-times-update-on-the-us-transformer-supply-chain https://www.tdworld.com/utility-business/article/21243198/tr... Expansion of factories: * https://electrek.co/2022/10/12/hitachi-energy-power-transformer-factory/ https://electrek.co/2022/10/12/hitachi-energy-power-transfor...
throwawaytoilet 4y ago
A VHS cassette tape thrown over transmission lines in the middle of nowhere coordinated at 3 or 4 key locations would do that too… and much easier ordinance to acquire. NMS systems can’t react and load shedding chaos is likely.
- BLKNSLVR 4y ago
  Hah. My point was that it's scarily easy. I like that your point is that it's way scarily easiER. Wouldn't Beta be slightly more effective? /s
  - throwawaytoilet 4y ago
    Yeah. The VHS thought experiment came from a brainstorm with an old timer after 9/11 about how to protect network infrastructure. You simply can’t.
    - throwawaytoilet 4y ago
      For anyone curious. If you short out transmission lines downstream of large generator, the protection is to vent steam and wind down generation fast. Do this to a few plants and might take a long time to bring things back up.
    - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
      The best protection may well be the nigh-impossible 'satisfaction of your constituents'; good government, good social services, equality of opportunity. The pursuit of which can, ironically, result in the opposite, as those with existing privilege flail against its erosion by claiming it is doing otherwise, thus fomenting dissatisfaction amongst some of those who would actually be better off. The subjectivity of any position within the spectrum above provides the impossibility. The long-horizon of any such decisions cannot be seen with any clarity, which this proverb captures nicely: A farmer and his son had a beloved horse who helped the family earn a living. One day, the horse ran away and their neighbours exclaimed, “Your horse ran away, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” A few days later, the horse returned home, leading a few wild horses back to the farm as well. The neighbours shouted out, “Your horse has returned, and brought several horses home with him. What great luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” Later that week, the farmer’s son was trying to break one of the horses and she threw him to the ground, breaking his leg. The neighbours cried, “Your son broke his leg, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” A few weeks later, soldiers from the national army marched through town, recruiting all boys for the army. They did not take the farmer’s son, because he had a broken leg. The neighbours shouted, “Your boy is spared, what tremendous luck!” To which the farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”
burritas 4y ago
Don't underestimate meth heads looking for copper. I knew a power company employee that told me there were more than a couple of incidents of a tweeker getting fried at the local sub station after they scaled a 9-foot wall covered with warning signs, topped with razor wire, and monitored by a few security cameras...presumably with the notion they'd get a whole lot of copper out of there while everything was energized.
- BLKNSLVR 4y ago
  This highlights the vulnerability beautifully. If your random meth-head can get close enough to do some amount of infrastructure damage (frying themselves or not), a coherent enemy, mis-guided or otherwise, with time and resources to plan and execute, could do exponentially more. But maybe drug-seekers are more crafty than I give them credit for. They're probably amongst the most motivated of humanity to reach their end-goal, so maybe it's not as good an example. "If you want a problem solved, tell a meth-head there's a score in it for them if they succeed"
  - burritas 4y ago
    If terrorists farmed out work to meth heads I'm sure we'd see some creative solutions for spreading mayhem. A lot of those guys are very familiar with critical infrastructure.
defrost 4y ago
Thank you for the cybersquirrel link, it made my day although I'd personally like to see the addition of lightning strikes, floods, and other non human vectors of destruction. While I have nothing (for now) to directly add to transmission network down time, I can at least add another Western Australian bird story to yours . . . [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/zebra-finch-makes-nest-in-dingo-carcass-wa/101627980 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/zebra-finch-makes-nes... The linked video rivals anything David Attenborough voiced.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
  There could be another angle to this! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenograd#/media/File:Zelenograd_district_of_Moscow_coa.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenograd#/media/File:Zelenog... Ahem. Just kidding, OFC...

dmix 4y ago

Apparently "Lead time on replacement parts" is the biggest issue today with dealing with the issue in a prompt time frame. Maybe they should stock up on at least 1x set of repair parts that would take a long timeframe to replace? Ukraine has shown how important electric substation part supply chains are.

BLKNSLVR 4y ago
Quoting from the movie Contact: "Why build one, when you could build two for twice the price?" I'd assume this isn't standard procedure, but agree that it should be, considering the increasing importance of power supply to society and in the current terror-paranoia state of the world.
- dmix 4y ago
  It's probably as idealistic as it gets, governments acting in the long-term interests extending beyond their elected position AND hopefully not turning a it into something costing 10x and 2x as long. But maybe it can focus on a limited set of parts? Terrorism and security has always been a great motivator for gov capital. Although it typically goes to Washington consultants rather than spending it on critical parts.
  - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
    Based on actual events (ie. fiction): The report, which cost taxpayers $x million, recommended the purchase of spare parts costing $y thousand, which would reduce the downtime of power transmission, due to the failure of these parts, to hours rather than days or possibly weeks. Actions based on this report are due to be debated following the election, due to be held in 8 months' time.
- dismalpedigree 4y ago
  This is Duke Energy we are talking about. No way are they going to allocate capital to tons of spares when they could be buying back shares.
- myself248 4y ago
  I've heard, but have no sources for it, that it's difficult to scale up production of large transformers. And as everyone's said, without government invention, there's no money in having a reserve. It's even worse if the _rate_ of consumption doesn't go up, then adding production to build up a reserve is folly, because the plant is guaranteed to go idle once the reserve is achieved. So, I don't have high hopes for that, at least not in a significant way. Going the other way, decentralizing the grid, putting solar and batteries on as many homes as possible, is already happening. There's already financial incentive. Utilities are adding _disincentives_ every chance they get, because they see it as reducing their customer base, rather than adding resiliency. But, customers and regulators are pushing back, and the situation in most places isn't terrible. And as a result, it's scaling up as fast as the market can scale it. Neither of these things will solve the problem completely, but I think we'll meet in the middle. Over the coming years, an interconnected grid will become decreasingly relevant for larger and larger fractions of the population. And outages, and even the very concept of outages, will approach quaint-memory status. Initially and particularly, this will benefit folks out in the boonies with lots of land for panels, who are usually on the losing end of the response time for outage restoration in the first place.
  - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
    I was previously going to mention the decentralisation that could be provided by micro-grids as a mitigating factor, but don't know enough about how they work to know whether it's just replacing one vulnerability for another, but your mention of home batteries reminds me that, with micro-grids, it should be possible to narrow down to a single household "island" level of granularity if all households have solar and batteries (and the same argument for apartment blocks at equivalent scale). Ideally, this allows for each individual unit (household, apartment complex, commercial building) to bear the costs of the "reserve assets" at the same time as being able to take advantage of them down to that granular level - as long as their battery is able to hold out and their solar able to recharge it. And the reserve assets being smaller, fit better into a manufacturing scenario as there should be a more consistent, less surge-style, demand.
    - fbdab103 4y ago
SoylentYellow 4y ago
Exactly. Critical infrastructure needs a strategic reserve.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 4y ago
jrs235 4y ago
There's a 1 year lead time for reserve replacement parts too. And if everyone orders now because of long lead times then the lead time will increase (for non reserve replacement we need it now parts).
throw0101c 4y ago
Examples: > The supply chain for grid components is even tighter now than it was earlier this year, Robinson said. The lead time for large-scale transformers is 90 weeks on average and the lead time for distribution transformers is six to nine months, she said. * https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/101322-despite-incentives-us-manufacturers-still-could-fall-short-of-renewable-grid-demand https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight... > “I deal with a number of different clients on the utility side and about a year ago we started to see lead times from transformer manufacturers creep up. Before the pandemic, you could get a large transformer ordered in less than a year. Today that is rare. A relatively large manufacturer in the US was at about 38 months. That used to be 38 weeks if you were to compare,” Templeton said. […] > It is still relatively easy to get a 10 MVA transformer from a supplier utilities know and are used to dealing with, but a 1000 MVA transformer might not be available from a reliable source, Templeton said. * https://www.tdworld.com/utility-business/article/21243198/transformative-times-update-on-the-us-transformer-supply-chain https://www.tdworld.com/utility-business/article/21243198/tr... Expansion of factories: * https://electrek.co/2022/10/12/hitachi-energy-power-transformer-factory/ https://electrek.co/2022/10/12/hitachi-energy-power-transfor...

throwawaytoilet 4y ago

A VHS cassette tape thrown over transmission lines in the middle of nowhere coordinated at 3 or 4 key locations would do that too… and much easier ordinance to acquire. NMS systems can’t react and load shedding chaos is likely.

BLKNSLVR 4y ago
Hah. My point was that it's scarily easy. I like that your point is that it's way scarily easiER. Wouldn't Beta be slightly more effective? /s
- throwawaytoilet 4y ago
  Yeah. The VHS thought experiment came from a brainstorm with an old timer after 9/11 about how to protect network infrastructure. You simply can’t.
  - throwawaytoilet 4y ago
    For anyone curious. If you short out transmission lines downstream of large generator, the protection is to vent steam and wind down generation fast. Do this to a few plants and might take a long time to bring things back up.
  - BLKNSLVR 4y ago
    The best protection may well be the nigh-impossible 'satisfaction of your constituents'; good government, good social services, equality of opportunity. The pursuit of which can, ironically, result in the opposite, as those with existing privilege flail against its erosion by claiming it is doing otherwise, thus fomenting dissatisfaction amongst some of those who would actually be better off. The subjectivity of any position within the spectrum above provides the impossibility. The long-horizon of any such decisions cannot be seen with any clarity, which this proverb captures nicely: A farmer and his son had a beloved horse who helped the family earn a living. One day, the horse ran away and their neighbours exclaimed, “Your horse ran away, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” A few days later, the horse returned home, leading a few wild horses back to the farm as well. The neighbours shouted out, “Your horse has returned, and brought several horses home with him. What great luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” Later that week, the farmer’s son was trying to break one of the horses and she threw him to the ground, breaking his leg. The neighbours cried, “Your son broke his leg, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not.” A few weeks later, soldiers from the national army marched through town, recruiting all boys for the army. They did not take the farmer’s son, because he had a broken leg. The neighbours shouted, “Your boy is spared, what tremendous luck!” To which the farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”

burritas 4y ago

Don't underestimate meth heads looking for copper. I knew a power company employee that told me there were more than a couple of incidents of a tweeker getting fried at the local sub station after they scaled a 9-foot wall covered with warning signs, topped with razor wire, and monitored by a few security cameras...presumably with the notion they'd get a whole lot of copper out of there while everything was energized.

BLKNSLVR 4y ago
This highlights the vulnerability beautifully. If your random meth-head can get close enough to do some amount of infrastructure damage (frying themselves or not), a coherent enemy, mis-guided or otherwise, with time and resources to plan and execute, could do exponentially more. But maybe drug-seekers are more crafty than I give them credit for. They're probably amongst the most motivated of humanity to reach their end-goal, so maybe it's not as good an example. "If you want a problem solved, tell a meth-head there's a score in it for them if they succeed"
- burritas 4y ago
  If terrorists farmed out work to meth heads I'm sure we'd see some creative solutions for spreading mayhem. A lot of those guys are very familiar with critical infrastructure.

defrost 4y ago

Thank you for the cybersquirrel link, it made my day although I'd personally like to see the addition of lightning strikes, floods, and other non human vectors of destruction. While I have nothing (for now) to directly add to transmission network down time, I can at least add another Western Australian bird story to yours . . . [1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/zebra-finch-makes-nest-in-dingo-carcass-wa/101627980 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-08/zebra-finch-makes-nes... The linked video rivals anything David Attenborough voiced.

LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
There could be another angle to this! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenograd#/media/File:Zelenograd_district_of_Moscow_coa.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenograd#/media/File:Zelenog... Ahem. Just kidding, OFC...