The downside to this future is that it, being the shift from applications to services, means instead of your data living on your computer it is instead fragment

The downside to this future is that it, being the shift from applications to services, means instead of your data living on your computer it is instead fragmented across a bunch of other random places. While most consumers don't really care and actually prefer the switch to everything being cloud-first, the stagnation it can cause for other developers is substantial. E.g. If I want to make a cool email client, I don't have to ask the user's permission to send and receive emails, I have to have Google's permission to access their machine and to make this compelling as Gmail, I have to then store all of my user's data on my own servers. This compared to me just writing a client-side application that has no server requirements is a huge bust IMO. My preferred future is where every user has their own server that can run general purpose applications. It would have all the benefits of the cloud (data available across all of your devices) and would grant developers more freedoms to create compelling experiences. The future, I want is that some high schooler could create the next Google Docs without having to compete with Google on large scale data infrastructure and security but instead on user experience.