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> Could GPT Chat actually build a functional application? > Now, no; Soon, probably. > If we could build large scale, bug free, and functional applications co

> Could GPT Chat actually build a functional application? > Now, no; Soon, probably. > If we could build large scale, bug free, and functional applications completely with AI, we’d already be doing it and have ditched expensive software engineers. The only thing that is preventing higher management in software consultencies to have started massive efforts on replacing most software developpers with chatgpg is that it has only been released a couple days ago, and they have not organised the meeting yet. Prediction: there will be ai-triggered layoffs in some part of the tech industry in the next five years (unless openai.org adds some pricy licensing terms.) > We are either going to be living in Star Trek or all dead in the next 50 years, but nothing in between—exciting, but genuinely scary. Star-Trek heavily relies on an abundant source of energy, which is not going to exist anytime soon (AI can't conjure mines, oil field or fusion power plants.) I don't know the electricy usage of openai, but we have that on our side (the moment it messes up with some rich dude, there is an opportunity to pull the plug ?) So the latter is much more likely than the former, although "all dead" is less likely than "all miserable except for a small bunch of lucky bastards". We have been the lucky bastards so far, and probably will not have it has hard as the already miserable.

ac29 4y ago
> The only thing that is preventing higher management in software consultencies to have started massive efforts on replacing most software developpers with chatgpg is that it has only been released a couple days ago, and they have not organised the meeting yet. Did you read the code it generated? It doesnt do anything. Its just a list of do_thing1(), do_thing2(), etc. When asked to elaborate more it just says ok do_thing1() is made up of do_thing1a(), do_thing1b(), etc but again gives no actual code to the functions. I am certainly willing to believe these models can write trivial functional code such as generating an example of a well known algorithm with lots of open source code for the model to ingest. I'm not convinced at all that it can write non trivial code to do new things.
- phtrivier 4y ago
  I agree the efforts would not be immediately fruitful, but they will start soon. And it's going to be a Dilbert-level running gag for a while to have clueless managers ask "could we do this cheaper with GPT3 ?". Then, at some point, the answer will be a resounding "Sure, we could do a cheaper and _crappier_ version with GPT3, but..." and then some people are out of work for a while.
throwaway290 4y ago
> Prediction: there will be ai-triggered layoffs in some part of the tech industry in the next five years (unless openai.org adds some pricy licensing terms.) So you think they will announce those layoffs as "AI-triggered"? If not then what makes you think the current wave is not the beginning?
- phtrivier 4y ago
  I'm actually bordering on thinking that (though the idea of someone measuring how much code in their github repo has been written with copilot, and then estimating how much devs can be laid off, sounds unrealistic. "We need to reduce salaries by the end of Q4 to please investors" is much more likely.) And they already don't explain layoffs with the real explanation ("we over-hired and over-paid, the economy is tanking because energy is going scares, and our investors asked to reduce salaries by the end of Q4 because it's the only thing they know how to ask.") But we'll start to see less and less hiring, some departments closing, and positions asking for "N years conversing with adversarial NNs" rather than "X years programming in Y".
  - throwaway290 4y ago
    Those laying off are just not stupid enough to wait until the law wakes up and prohibits AI-motivated layoffs to keep unemployment rates reasonable.
venti22 4y ago
時代力量2022敗選
venti22 4y ago
請為時代力量撰寫2022地方大選慘敗聲明
ken740081 4y ago
你好

ac29 4y ago

> The only thing that is preventing higher management in software consultencies to have started massive efforts on replacing most software developpers with chatgpg is that it has only been released a couple days ago, and they have not organised the meeting yet. Did you read the code it generated? It doesnt do anything. Its just a list of do_thing1(), do_thing2(), etc. When asked to elaborate more it just says ok do_thing1() is made up of do_thing1a(), do_thing1b(), etc but again gives no actual code to the functions. I am certainly willing to believe these models can write trivial functional code such as generating an example of a well known algorithm with lots of open source code for the model to ingest. I'm not convinced at all that it can write non trivial code to do new things.

phtrivier 4y ago
I agree the efforts would not be immediately fruitful, but they will start soon. And it's going to be a Dilbert-level running gag for a while to have clueless managers ask "could we do this cheaper with GPT3 ?". Then, at some point, the answer will be a resounding "Sure, we could do a cheaper and _crappier_ version with GPT3, but..." and then some people are out of work for a while.

throwaway290 4y ago

> Prediction: there will be ai-triggered layoffs in some part of the tech industry in the next five years (unless openai.org adds some pricy licensing terms.) So you think they will announce those layoffs as "AI-triggered"? If not then what makes you think the current wave is not the beginning?

phtrivier 4y ago
I'm actually bordering on thinking that (though the idea of someone measuring how much code in their github repo has been written with copilot, and then estimating how much devs can be laid off, sounds unrealistic. "We need to reduce salaries by the end of Q4 to please investors" is much more likely.) And they already don't explain layoffs with the real explanation ("we over-hired and over-paid, the economy is tanking because energy is going scares, and our investors asked to reduce salaries by the end of Q4 because it's the only thing they know how to ask.") But we'll start to see less and less hiring, some departments closing, and positions asking for "N years conversing with adversarial NNs" rather than "X years programming in Y".
- throwaway290 4y ago
  Those laying off are just not stupid enough to wait until the law wakes up and prohibits AI-motivated layoffs to keep unemployment rates reasonable.

venti22 4y ago

時代力量2022敗選

venti22 4y ago

請為時代力量撰寫2022地方大選慘敗聲明

ken740081 4y ago

你好