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That's significant. The ayatollahs came to power thanks to big popular support (audio cassettes of khomeini). Now a popular uprising is specifically against rel

That's significant. The ayatollahs came to power thanks to big popular support (audio cassettes of khomeini). Now a popular uprising is specifically against religious restrictions. In the meantime empirically the army has all the power of the sword. That's a step towards sidelining the ayatollahs. I guess we will see if it will evolve toward a military dictatorship (as I predict), a democracy, or the existing religious regime will manage to keep the power.

stuaxo 4y ago
- guntherhermann 4y ago
  For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta... That was 70 years ago. Are countries, their people, and their policies immutable? If this was a genuine question and not the snide remark that it appears to be, then a good place to investigate whether or not the UK government has any support for it or not would be to check out BBC Persia. De jure the BBC are not a government entity, but they are de facto. https://www.bbc.com/persian https://www.bbc.com/persian
  - croes 4y ago
    Look what a happened in Egypt
    - yywwbbn 4y ago
      Well they elected religious extremists who weren’t particularly keen about democracy either. I think democracy is more than just majority rule. Of course El-Sisi’s regime is not much better..
      - croes 4y ago
        So instead of a flawed democracy we rather support a military dictatorship.
        0dayz 4y ago
        If by flawed democracy you mean a dictatorship akin to Gaza, sure.
      - ReptileMan 4y ago
        Yes democracy is majority rule that complies with the current zeitgeist of the blue checkmarks. Majority rule that doesn't is populism or authoritarianism
      - EGreg 4y ago
        It’s gonna be Bibi and Sisi again soon! And Gaza is in the middle, with millions of trapped people. There are ways to solve these issues but they involve a regional solution where everyone works together. Like approaching Hamas with a roadmap for building up Gaza and replacing them with moderates and free and fair elections. Or like having all Arab countries agree to offer citizenship and equal rights to people of Palestinian descent who were born in the country and so were their parents. And then after that Israel can offer a right of return to them, so they actually have a choice of where to go. Unfortunately that will take another 10 years to materialize.
      - barry-cotter 4y ago
  - bnralt 4y ago
    It's also strange how people portray Mossadegh's government at the time of his removal as democratic. If you look at the history[1], Mossadegh had a power struggle had a power struggle with parliament. Mossadegh responded with a fraudulent referendum that dissolved parliament and gave him sole power to rule by fiat, his government claimed 99.94% of voters voted in favor of it. He asked the Shah to call new elections, the Shah had him dismissed (which he had constitutional authority to do), Mossadegh refused the dismissal, and he was removed by the military. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/1953/08/16/archives/mossadegh-terms-majlis-dissolved-premier-asks-shah-to-order-new.html https://www.nytimes.com/1953/08/16/archives/mossadegh-terms-...
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
inglor_cz 4y ago
"In the meantime empirically the army has all the power of the sword." Isn't it the Revolutionary Guard who wields the real power of the sword? From what I have heard, the regular army is kept somewhat underinvested precisely because the young recruits cannot be trusted, while the RG consists of utterly dedicated individuals supporting the regime at any cost.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  There is true to that split, but the real army can not be fully de-powered. They still have a lot of the heavy weapons and large numbers. The Revolutionary Guard outside the professional core isn't that dangerous. I believe this split between Revolutionary Guard and the Army is what will one-day allow Iran to turn democratic.
sfifs 4y ago
You do realize I assume that in the whole of middle east, Israel and Iran are the only reasonably functional countries where people get to elect their government to some extent and the people leading the government actually change based on the vote? Maybe that's why the governments hate each other :-) Perhaps Lebanon as well but the country has been non-functional for a long time. Every other country including every western ally is a de-facto dictatorship of some form or the other.
- yyyk 4y ago
  There are no real elections in Iran, since every significant challenger to whomever the Supreme Leader decides to support will be disqualified (e.g. Raisi's election).
  - peoplefromibiza 4y ago
    You mean like the center-right in Israel that will always win against the Arab left?
    - josh_fyi 4y ago
      An Arab party and two leftist parties were in the last coalition, though the Arab party was Islamist and the leftists parties were not Arab parties.
      - JZM8yKnRvGv 4y ago
        AFAIK from 2019 to 2022 there were five elections, all of them where won by the center right (the center or the right) The right is (was) led by Netanyahu, the center by Ganz, a retired military general, former ministry of defense. Not exactly two champions of progressivism. I don't recall a victory of the left or the Arab parties in Israel, maybe it's because, like in Iran, the situation in the area forces them to act in a certain way, to not disappear. I don't condone what's happening in Iran, but I think I understand why there isn't a democracy of the same kind we like to pride ourselves in the west. I think OP meant to say that Iran is to be considered more democratic than its neighbouring countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Emirates (and so on). Some of them (we all know who they are) are close friends of the west or some western countries, one in particular (we all know which one is it), and I honestly believe they are more dangerous than Iran.
kbrkbr 4y ago
The moral police was introduced under Ahmadinedshad‘s rein, so not long ago. It is not a fundament of the current regime.

stuaxo 4y ago

guntherhermann 4y ago
For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta... That was 70 years ago. Are countries, their people, and their policies immutable? If this was a genuine question and not the snide remark that it appears to be, then a good place to investigate whether or not the UK government has any support for it or not would be to check out BBC Persia. De jure the BBC are not a government entity, but they are de facto. https://www.bbc.com/persian https://www.bbc.com/persian
- croes 4y ago
  Look what a happened in Egypt
  - yywwbbn 4y ago
    Well they elected religious extremists who weren’t particularly keen about democracy either. I think democracy is more than just majority rule. Of course El-Sisi’s regime is not much better..
    - croes 4y ago
      So instead of a flawed democracy we rather support a military dictatorship.
      - 0dayz 4y ago
        If by flawed democracy you mean a dictatorship akin to Gaza, sure.
    - ReptileMan 4y ago
      Yes democracy is majority rule that complies with the current zeitgeist of the blue checkmarks. Majority rule that doesn't is populism or authoritarianism
    - EGreg 4y ago
      It’s gonna be Bibi and Sisi again soon! And Gaza is in the middle, with millions of trapped people. There are ways to solve these issues but they involve a regional solution where everyone works together. Like approaching Hamas with a roadmap for building up Gaza and replacing them with moderates and free and fair elections. Or like having all Arab countries agree to offer citizenship and equal rights to people of Palestinian descent who were born in the country and so were their parents. And then after that Israel can offer a right of return to them, so they actually have a choice of where to go. Unfortunately that will take another 10 years to materialize.
    - barry-cotter 4y ago
- bnralt 4y ago
  It's also strange how people portray Mossadegh's government at the time of his removal as democratic. If you look at the history[1], Mossadegh had a power struggle had a power struggle with parliament. Mossadegh responded with a fraudulent referendum that dissolved parliament and gave him sole power to rule by fiat, his government claimed 99.94% of voters voted in favor of it. He asked the Shah to call new elections, the Shah had him dismissed (which he had constitutional authority to do), Mossadegh refused the dismissal, and he was removed by the military. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/1953/08/16/archives/mossadegh-terms-majlis-dissolved-premier-asks-shah-to-order-new.html https://www.nytimes.com/1953/08/16/archives/mossadegh-terms-...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

inglor_cz 4y ago

"In the meantime empirically the army has all the power of the sword." Isn't it the Revolutionary Guard who wields the real power of the sword? From what I have heard, the regular army is kept somewhat underinvested precisely because the young recruits cannot be trusted, while the RG consists of utterly dedicated individuals supporting the regime at any cost.

panick21_ 4y ago
There is true to that split, but the real army can not be fully de-powered. They still have a lot of the heavy weapons and large numbers. The Revolutionary Guard outside the professional core isn't that dangerous. I believe this split between Revolutionary Guard and the Army is what will one-day allow Iran to turn democratic.

sfifs 4y ago

You do realize I assume that in the whole of middle east, Israel and Iran are the only reasonably functional countries where people get to elect their government to some extent and the people leading the government actually change based on the vote? Maybe that's why the governments hate each other :-) Perhaps Lebanon as well but the country has been non-functional for a long time. Every other country including every western ally is a de-facto dictatorship of some form or the other.

yyyk 4y ago
There are no real elections in Iran, since every significant challenger to whomever the Supreme Leader decides to support will be disqualified (e.g. Raisi's election).
- peoplefromibiza 4y ago
  You mean like the center-right in Israel that will always win against the Arab left?
  - josh_fyi 4y ago
    An Arab party and two leftist parties were in the last coalition, though the Arab party was Islamist and the leftists parties were not Arab parties.
    - JZM8yKnRvGv 4y ago
      AFAIK from 2019 to 2022 there were five elections, all of them where won by the center right (the center or the right) The right is (was) led by Netanyahu, the center by Ganz, a retired military general, former ministry of defense. Not exactly two champions of progressivism. I don't recall a victory of the left or the Arab parties in Israel, maybe it's because, like in Iran, the situation in the area forces them to act in a certain way, to not disappear. I don't condone what's happening in Iran, but I think I understand why there isn't a democracy of the same kind we like to pride ourselves in the west. I think OP meant to say that Iran is to be considered more democratic than its neighbouring countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Emirates (and so on). Some of them (we all know who they are) are close friends of the west or some western countries, one in particular (we all know which one is it), and I honestly believe they are more dangerous than Iran.

kbrkbr 4y ago

The moral police was introduced under Ahmadinedshad‘s rein, so not long ago. It is not a fundament of the current regime.