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It could be an exponential graph, but it could also be a discrete step chart. When you're at the point where a leap in technology is happening, it looks like it
by mjr00 4y ago
It could be an exponential graph, but it could also be a discrete step chart. When you're at the point where a leap in technology is happening, it looks like it's exponential for a brief period of time. But after that jump, things remain largely flat for indefinite periods of time. This is what leads to AI hype cycles and AI winters.
- csande17 4y agoAnother aspect to consider is that a lot of the recent growth in AI is economic, not technological. The kind of language model that makes Hacker News headlines today is a thousand times larger than models were four years ago. GPUs haven't gotten a thousand times better, and the underlying algorithms aren't a thousand times better; companies are just spending a lot more money. There is no particular reason to expect that trend to continue indefinitely.