6 ms·

So the issue is that many of their nuclear plants require long maintenance downtime simultaneously? That seems like something that could have been foreseen.

by cdot2 4y ago

lm28469 4y ago
Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine Without these two things we most likely wouldn't have blackouts
- Normille 4y ago
  >What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated general energy crisis in Europe... >Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine... Yes. Who could possibly have foreseen that announcing you're stopping imports of gas from Europe's biggest supplier, in the run up to winter, might lead to... er... a shortage of gas supplies. No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK, apparently.
  - lm28469 4y ago
    If you plan for these events you'll quickly stop all imports and exports because you'd have to be self sufficient 24/7
  - f6v 4y ago
    > No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK, apparently. The whole conflict is just the other party calling bluff. But both the West and Russia have invested so much neither is going to settle. So they up the stakes and get dragged downwards. The only thing left is to complain that “it’s unfair the the US is profiting”.
    - sgt 4y ago
      And those pesky Norwegians.
    - nivenkos 4y ago
      As a European, it's not our problem. Ukraine isn't an EU member. But we need electricity and industry.
      - f6v 4y ago
        You might be right, but that’s not where the EU is at right now. You can’t see people protest in the EU capitals, can you? At least not the extent where the governments have to cut the aid.
oezi 4y ago
If anything can be learnt here it is A.) that many things cannot be easily foreseen which includes record draughts and the Ukraine conflict. B.) It makes sense to have a diversified energy mix where no single source is used predominantly.
- johnchristopher 4y ago
  > A.) that many things cannot be easily foreseen which includes record draughts and the Ukraine conflict. I don't know. These record draughts are directly tied to climate change and I have known since the 90's that the Pentagon and the UN knew climate change would bring wars, population displacement et resources problems. I think that's where we are.
  - Symbiote 4y ago
    Droughts (lack of rain) in case others don't understand the typo.
  - STM32F030R8 4y ago
    You think that the war in Ukraine was caused by climate change? Can you expand on that?
seszett 4y ago
Maintenance had been postponed during the corona crisis. What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated general energy crisis in Europe.
- oska 4y ago
  > What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine The Russian reaction to the eastward expansion of NATO right up to Russia's borders has been foreseen and warned about since the 90s, including by top level US officials such as George Kennan and William Burns and by informed & insightful commentators such as John Mearsheimer. [1,2] The Russian government made very clear protests in December of 2021 (the last in a long line of such protests) that they felt existentially threatened and would have to act. > and the associated general energy crisis in Europe Many people also warned about how stupid the sanctions that Europe imposed on Russia were, with the very high risk that they would harm European states (and their peoples) much more than Russia itself. One person I remember making such warnings in advance or concurrently was Philip Pilkington in UnHerd. [3,4,5] [1] https://www.cato.org/commentary/many-predicted-nato-expansion-would-lead-war-those-warnings-were-ignored https://www.cato.org/commentary/many-predicted-nato-expansio... [2] https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999 https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-w... [3] https://unherd.com/thepost/sanctions-wont-hurt-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/sanctions-wont-hurt-russia/ [4] https://unherd.com/thepost/oil-and-gas-sanctions-hurt-the-west-more-than-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/oil-and-gas-sanctions-hurt-the-we... [5] https://unherd.com/thepost/gas-embargoes-will-hurt-europe-much-more-than-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/gas-embargoes-will-hurt-europe-mu...
  - stefan_ 4y ago
    Yes, clearly, NATO expansion means Russia must invade... a non NATO member? Meanwhile the actual border state of Finland joins and... not a peep? Depleting vast amounts of key personnel and equipment all along the very line you claim was the source of danger? No, Russian propaganda will variably claim NATO, Nazis and Jews are responsible, depending on what bigger fool they are trying to address. Well, one bit!
masklinn 4y ago
Yes and no. The 10 years maintenance was foreseeable, but during that they discovered a stress corrosion issue, initially on the (somewhat beleaguered) N4 plants but which turned out to be a lot more widespread than that. It’s also chicken-decisions coming home to roost: maintenance delays due to covid, poor maintenance conditions leading to strikes, and training of new maintenance staff had apparently been slashed because an expected shift to renewables means you apparently don’t need to train staff to maintain 50+ nuclear plants expected to run for decades more.
- School-Cotton 4y ago
  > maintenance delays due to covid Due to the response to Covid, not due to Covid itself.

So the issue is that many of their nuclear plants require long maintenance downtime simultaneously? That seems like something that could have been foreseen.

by cdot2 4y ago

So the issue is that many of their nuclear plants require long maintenance downtime simultaneously? That seems like something that could have been foreseen.

lm28469 4y ago

Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine Without these two things we most likely wouldn't have blackouts

Normille 4y ago
>What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated general energy crisis in Europe... >Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine... Yes. Who could possibly have foreseen that announcing you're stopping imports of gas from Europe's biggest supplier, in the run up to winter, might lead to... er... a shortage of gas supplies. No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK, apparently.
- lm28469 4y ago
  If you plan for these events you'll quickly stop all imports and exports because you'd have to be self sufficient 24/7
- f6v 4y ago
  > No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK, apparently. The whole conflict is just the other party calling bluff. But both the West and Russia have invested so much neither is going to settle. So they up the stakes and get dragged downwards. The only thing left is to complain that “it’s unfair the the US is profiting”.
  - sgt 4y ago
    And those pesky Norwegians.
  - nivenkos 4y ago
    As a European, it's not our problem. Ukraine isn't an EU member. But we need electricity and industry.
    - f6v 4y ago
      You might be right, but that’s not where the EU is at right now. You can’t see people protest in the EU capitals, can you? At least not the extent where the governments have to cut the aid.

oezi 4y ago

If anything can be learnt here it is A.) that many things cannot be easily foreseen which includes record draughts and the Ukraine conflict. B.) It makes sense to have a diversified energy mix where no single source is used predominantly.

johnchristopher 4y ago
> A.) that many things cannot be easily foreseen which includes record draughts and the Ukraine conflict. I don't know. These record draughts are directly tied to climate change and I have known since the 90's that the Pentagon and the UN knew climate change would bring wars, population displacement et resources problems. I think that's where we are.
- Symbiote 4y ago
  Droughts (lack of rain) in case others don't understand the typo.
- STM32F030R8 4y ago
  You think that the war in Ukraine was caused by climate change? Can you expand on that?

seszett 4y ago

Maintenance had been postponed during the corona crisis. What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated general energy crisis in Europe.

oska 4y ago
> What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine The Russian reaction to the eastward expansion of NATO right up to Russia's borders has been foreseen and warned about since the 90s, including by top level US officials such as George Kennan and William Burns and by informed & insightful commentators such as John Mearsheimer. [1,2] The Russian government made very clear protests in December of 2021 (the last in a long line of such protests) that they felt existentially threatened and would have to act. > and the associated general energy crisis in Europe Many people also warned about how stupid the sanctions that Europe imposed on Russia were, with the very high risk that they would harm European states (and their peoples) much more than Russia itself. One person I remember making such warnings in advance or concurrently was Philip Pilkington in UnHerd. [3,4,5] [1] https://www.cato.org/commentary/many-predicted-nato-expansion-would-lead-war-those-warnings-were-ignored https://www.cato.org/commentary/many-predicted-nato-expansio... [2] https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999 https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-w... [3] https://unherd.com/thepost/sanctions-wont-hurt-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/sanctions-wont-hurt-russia/ [4] https://unherd.com/thepost/oil-and-gas-sanctions-hurt-the-west-more-than-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/oil-and-gas-sanctions-hurt-the-we... [5] https://unherd.com/thepost/gas-embargoes-will-hurt-europe-much-more-than-russia/ https://unherd.com/thepost/gas-embargoes-will-hurt-europe-mu...
- stefan_ 4y ago
  Yes, clearly, NATO expansion means Russia must invade... a non NATO member? Meanwhile the actual border state of Finland joins and... not a peep? Depleting vast amounts of key personnel and equipment all along the very line you claim was the source of danger? No, Russian propaganda will variably claim NATO, Nazis and Jews are responsible, depending on what bigger fool they are trying to address. Well, one bit!

masklinn 4y ago

Yes and no. The 10 years maintenance was foreseeable, but during that they discovered a stress corrosion issue, initially on the (somewhat beleaguered) N4 plants but which turned out to be a lot more widespread than that. It’s also chicken-decisions coming home to roost: maintenance delays due to covid, poor maintenance conditions leading to strikes, and training of new maintenance staff had apparently been slashed because an expected shift to renewables means you apparently don’t need to train staff to maintain 50+ nuclear plants expected to run for decades more.

School-Cotton 4y ago
> maintenance delays due to covid Due to the response to Covid, not due to Covid itself.