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Okay, cool. So if I read [1] right, some kind of average price for electricity used in the transport sector in the US as of September 2022 was 12.48 cents/kWh.

by unwind 4y ago

Okay, cool. So if I read [1] right, some kind of average price for electricity used in the transport sector in the US as of September 2022 was 12.48 cents/kWh. That would mean that the 500-mile trip costs 500 * 1.5 * 12.48 / 100 = $93.6 in energy. If that includes hauling tens of thousands of pounds of cargo, that sounds rather a lot like it would make transport powered by electricity commercially sane, right? Nice. EDIT: I hadn't read the article much; it seems the current power value given is actually 1.7 kWh/mile, so that increased the price to 500 * 1.7 * 12.48 / 100 = $106.08. Not a huge increase, obviously.

verdenti 4y ago
Thanks for that math. Seems relatively cheap. How does it compare to gasoline?
- lern_too_spel 4y ago
  You appear to be shadow-banned because of your second ever comment, which, while wildly offensive, does not appear to be a statement that you believe but instead an explanation of what Meloni believes.
- mbell 4y ago
  (500mi / 6.5mpg) * $5.313 = $408.69 6.5mpg - I just Googled average MPG for a fully loaded Semi, could be wrong. $5.313 - Most recent highway diesel price (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/). I'd expect this is high due to fleet discounts and such.
  - olyjohn 4y ago
    I feel like that average is really low. Talking with my buddy who is a trucker, he said that 6mpg is on the low end. His truck, which isn't anything special, would usually get 8-9. He said those guys getting 6 or lower are usually owner / operators who have older trucks, either because they like the older trucks or they can't afford to get a new one. Most fleets have much newer trucks, a lot of which can get up to 10mpg or more. That may not seem like a huge improvement, but over thousands of miles it adds up really fast.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- js2 4y ago
  Semi-trucks use diesel. Diesel is between $5-$6/gallon: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ Let's use $5/gallon. According to random website https://motorask.com/semi-trucks-mileage/ https://motorask.com/semi-trucks-mileage/ > On average, semi-trucks get around 6.5 miles a gallon But according to https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-per-gallon-do-semi-trucks-get/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-per-gallon-do-se... > Transporting freight from one location to another isn’t cheap. We all pay so much for shipping because semi-trucks are gas guzzlers. In the early ’70s, it was estimated that the average semi got about 5.6 MPG, but that amount has increased slightly. In 2014, new semi-trucks were required to get 7.2 MPG on average. Heck, let's use 10 MPG. 500 miles ÷ 10 miles/gallon x $5/gallon = $250. So even with liberal estimates in diesel's favor, unless my numbers are way off, electric comes out way ahead.
  - Arainach 4y ago
    ....per trip. What about lifetime? With a more pessimistic 6.5MPG, using mbell's math, that's 82 cents per mile in fuel. Electric is 19 cents per mile. An average semi lasts 750,000 miles: https://www.tristatetruck.com/blog/posts/what-is-the-average-lifespan-of-a-long-haul-truck https://www.tristatetruck.com/blog/posts/what-is-the-average... Let's assume for a moment that Tesla has made a motor and batteries that will last that long (far from guaranteed). Heck, let's take some random internet claims at face value and say that the motor will last "millions" of miles and the batteries will last 300,000 miles: https://www.vehiclehistory.com/articles/how-many-miles-will-a-tesla-typically-last https://www.vehiclehistory.com/articles/how-many-miles-will-.... Will these batteries last 300k with a likely use case of being driven to their absolute maximum range every single day? In that 300,000 miles, the fuel savings of electric will save you 300k * (0.82-0.19) = $189k. Replacing all the battery modules in a Model 3 (82kWh) will cost somewhere in the range of $25k. How much would replacing this giant battery cost? It's possibly better, but the math isn't particularly clear.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      A dead battery isn't dead, it just has a reduced capacity. Usually the battery is considered dead at 80%, so it's a 400 mile truck then. That 400 mile truck is still useful, so it'd probably be cheaper to sell the 400 mile truck and buy a new truck then to replace the battery and sell the old battery. Another question is: how much of the savings in fuel costs going to go to the operator and how much is going to go to Tesla in purchase price? 5 years ago it was announced at $180K, but it's certainly going to sell for a lot more than that. A Nikola Tre with 360 mile range goes for $270K, so it's quite possible that Tesla will charge $400K for theirs. So you might start off at about $250K in the hole so it'll be hundreds of thousands of miles before the Tesla is cheaper than a diesel.
citilife 4y ago
> If that includes hauling tens of thousands of pounds of cargo... That is the question. I am very curious if that includes cargo and if so how much weight. I suspect it doesn't include cargo. If it doesn't include cargo, diesel trucks will be far cheaper If you're looking at historic fuel prices ($3/gal diesel [1]) and what modern trucks are getting (7-10mpg [2]) with loads. You're talking ~$150-$215 for a diesel truck. Plus you have fuel everywhere (less infrastructure costs), quicker refuels, easier repairs, etc. The cold and time will also siphon off the efficiency of the battery powered trucks. Colder climates will see a 5-10% drop in efficiency in winter, and that'll grow over time. Making it less cost effective in northern climates. The only way this truck makes any sense would be short-haul (single day round-trip deliveries) and government subsidies IMO. Plenty of market, but not quite where it needs to be. [1] https://agtransport.usda.gov/Fuel/Historical-Diesel-Fuel-Prices/u2kh-s8ke https://agtransport.usda.gov/Fuel/Historical-Diesel-Fuel-Pri... [2] https://lonestarclassictruckclub.org/average-fuel-mileage-for-semi-trucks/ https://lonestarclassictruckclub.org/average-fuel-mileage-fo...
- Fatnino 4y ago
  Had you bothered to watch the presentation from last night, or done any cursory research this morning in place of inserting your "suspect it doesn't include cargo", you might know that this includes 82,000lbs of cargo. Tesla also released a video[1] showing a time-lapse of a fully loaded truck going from Fremont to San Diego fully loaded with no charge stop. (The trip does include a 30 minute bio break as required by law.) [1] https://youtu.be/GtgaYEh-qSk https://youtu.be/GtgaYEh-qSk

by unwind 4y ago

verdenti 4y ago

Thanks for that math. Seems relatively cheap. How does it compare to gasoline?

lern_too_spel 4y ago
You appear to be shadow-banned because of your second ever comment, which, while wildly offensive, does not appear to be a statement that you believe but instead an explanation of what Meloni believes.
mbell 4y ago
(500mi / 6.5mpg) * $5.313 = $408.69 6.5mpg - I just Googled average MPG for a fully loaded Semi, could be wrong. $5.313 - Most recent highway diesel price (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/). I'd expect this is high due to fleet discounts and such.
- olyjohn 4y ago
  I feel like that average is really low. Talking with my buddy who is a trucker, he said that 6mpg is on the low end. His truck, which isn't anything special, would usually get 8-9. He said those guys getting 6 or lower are usually owner / operators who have older trucks, either because they like the older trucks or they can't afford to get a new one. Most fleets have much newer trucks, a lot of which can get up to 10mpg or more. That may not seem like a huge improvement, but over thousands of miles it adds up really fast.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
js2 4y ago
Semi-trucks use diesel. Diesel is between $5-$6/gallon: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ Let's use $5/gallon. According to random website https://motorask.com/semi-trucks-mileage/ https://motorask.com/semi-trucks-mileage/ > On average, semi-trucks get around 6.5 miles a gallon But according to https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-per-gallon-do-semi-trucks-get/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-per-gallon-do-se... > Transporting freight from one location to another isn’t cheap. We all pay so much for shipping because semi-trucks are gas guzzlers. In the early ’70s, it was estimated that the average semi got about 5.6 MPG, but that amount has increased slightly. In 2014, new semi-trucks were required to get 7.2 MPG on average. Heck, let's use 10 MPG. 500 miles ÷ 10 miles/gallon x $5/gallon = $250. So even with liberal estimates in diesel's favor, unless my numbers are way off, electric comes out way ahead.
- Arainach 4y ago
  ....per trip. What about lifetime? With a more pessimistic 6.5MPG, using mbell's math, that's 82 cents per mile in fuel. Electric is 19 cents per mile. An average semi lasts 750,000 miles: https://www.tristatetruck.com/blog/posts/what-is-the-average-lifespan-of-a-long-haul-truck https://www.tristatetruck.com/blog/posts/what-is-the-average... Let's assume for a moment that Tesla has made a motor and batteries that will last that long (far from guaranteed). Heck, let's take some random internet claims at face value and say that the motor will last "millions" of miles and the batteries will last 300,000 miles: https://www.vehiclehistory.com/articles/how-many-miles-will-a-tesla-typically-last https://www.vehiclehistory.com/articles/how-many-miles-will-.... Will these batteries last 300k with a likely use case of being driven to their absolute maximum range every single day? In that 300,000 miles, the fuel savings of electric will save you 300k * (0.82-0.19) = $189k. Replacing all the battery modules in a Model 3 (82kWh) will cost somewhere in the range of $25k. How much would replacing this giant battery cost? It's possibly better, but the math isn't particularly clear.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    A dead battery isn't dead, it just has a reduced capacity. Usually the battery is considered dead at 80%, so it's a 400 mile truck then. That 400 mile truck is still useful, so it'd probably be cheaper to sell the 400 mile truck and buy a new truck then to replace the battery and sell the old battery. Another question is: how much of the savings in fuel costs going to go to the operator and how much is going to go to Tesla in purchase price? 5 years ago it was announced at $180K, but it's certainly going to sell for a lot more than that. A Nikola Tre with 360 mile range goes for $270K, so it's quite possible that Tesla will charge $400K for theirs. So you might start off at about $250K in the hole so it'll be hundreds of thousands of miles before the Tesla is cheaper than a diesel.

citilife 4y ago

> If that includes hauling tens of thousands of pounds of cargo... That is the question. I am very curious if that includes cargo and if so how much weight. I suspect it doesn't include cargo. If it doesn't include cargo, diesel trucks will be far cheaper If you're looking at historic fuel prices ($3/gal diesel [1]) and what modern trucks are getting (7-10mpg [2]) with loads. You're talking ~$150-$215 for a diesel truck. Plus you have fuel everywhere (less infrastructure costs), quicker refuels, easier repairs, etc. The cold and time will also siphon off the efficiency of the battery powered trucks. Colder climates will see a 5-10% drop in efficiency in winter, and that'll grow over time. Making it less cost effective in northern climates. The only way this truck makes any sense would be short-haul (single day round-trip deliveries) and government subsidies IMO. Plenty of market, but not quite where it needs to be. [1] https://agtransport.usda.gov/Fuel/Historical-Diesel-Fuel-Prices/u2kh-s8ke https://agtransport.usda.gov/Fuel/Historical-Diesel-Fuel-Pri... [2] https://lonestarclassictruckclub.org/average-fuel-mileage-for-semi-trucks/ https://lonestarclassictruckclub.org/average-fuel-mileage-fo...

Fatnino 4y ago
Had you bothered to watch the presentation from last night, or done any cursory research this morning in place of inserting your "suspect it doesn't include cargo", you might know that this includes 82,000lbs of cargo. Tesla also released a video[1] showing a time-lapse of a fully loaded truck going from Fremont to San Diego fully loaded with no charge stop. (The trip does include a 30 minute bio break as required by law.) [1] https://youtu.be/GtgaYEh-qSk https://youtu.be/GtgaYEh-qSk