4 ms·

What? Is the USA going to sell their chips to China? Because when Taiwan gets invaded the Fabs will be destroyed and/or made inoperable with no way to get them

• vineyardmike 4y ago
  China is already working on their own chips. It’s only a matter of time before it’s good enough.
  • holoduke 4y ago
    They are lightyears behind. 20 years if not more. These chip machines is work of many decates of iterative work. You cannot simply step in and produce similar tech.
    • vineyardmike 4y ago
      You don’t need to actually replace them with equal alternatives, just enough so the digital economy doesn’t implode. Even 2015 is probably a target year in terms of performance that doesn’t destroy the entire electronics industry.
    • FooBarWidget 4y ago
      If they are "lightyears behind", and everyone on HN thinks that China will invade Taiwan in order to get chips, then why the ** is the US trying to cripple China's domestic semiconductor industry?!? Isn't this a self-fulfulling prophecy? If HNers are so concerned about Taiwan's peace and independence then why aren't HNers protesting more against the US' effort to cripple China's semiconductor industry so that China has no incentive to invade Taiwan for chips? These questions are only half rhetorical. I really want to hear what people have to say about this.
      • vineyardmike 4y ago
        > and everyone on HN thinks that China will invade Taiwan in order to get chips Most everyone things China will invade Taiwan because they want to own the land. It was once part of "china" but now is a (politically unrecognized) separate nation. Everyone thinks that the only reason not to invade is that warfare will surely destroy all semiconductor manufacturing on the island. The US wants to cripple the Chinese semiconductor industry to ensure that Taiwan can't be invaded without severely hurting the Chinese economy.
    • KenChicken 4y ago
      You underestimate the insane R&D investment china can put on its chip industry to get ahead quicker
      • ekianjo 4y ago
        If money was the driver the US would be first, not Taiwan.
      • alex_suzuki 4y ago
        I may be naive, but I think R&D in those cutting-edge sectors is not something you can just throw money at and then get results, you need to create the foundation for it first. Is there evidence that links more open societies and liberal economies to technological progress?
      • astrange 4y ago
        TSMC isn’t the only thing they need to replace. ASML isn’t either. There’s multiple levels of sole suppliers for chipmaking that nobody can replace. China can’t replicate an mRNA vaccine either.
        • FooBarWidget 4y ago
          They already have mRNA vaccine in trial? Check AWCorna.
    • FooBarWidget 4y ago
      Okay so what's the plan after 20 years? Or do you think China won't be a problem for you anymore by then?
  • tooltalk 4y ago
    Sure, we are talking probably 20-30 years.
  • dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
    Good enough for what? The free world isn't standing still so China will always be several generations behind. The market wants the latest and greatest. It's only if the free world can't compete will China catch up, in which case it will get what it deserves.
    • FooBarWidget 4y ago
      Good enough for 70% of dometic market demand, which analists have found is satisified by 14nm. The thing is, "latest and greatest" is actually a niche demand, even if we don't feel like that's the case because of phones and laptops. The market for non-phone, non-laptop, boring unsexy applications that don't require more than 14nm is apparently much bigger.
  • ekianjo 4y ago
    lol your overstimate the Chinese tech by a generation at least.
• sofixa 4y ago
  > Because when Taiwan gets invaded the Fabs will be destroyed and/or made inoperable with no way to get them functional again. You can't know that. Taiwan might plan to do this, which China surely anticipates, thus in any invasion plans would be made to stop it - paratroopers dropping on top to seize control quickly during the night, covert operatives swooping in to take out critical personnel in charge of sabotage, etc. etc. > Is the USA going to sell their chips to China? China is already working on improving their own industry and reducing reliance on imports.
  • midasz 4y ago
    China is decades behind and will stay so because the industry is not standing still either. The chip machines need maintenance which the Chinese cannot do themselves. They don't have the knowledge. They'd need ASML (European company) for that.
• jazzyjackson 4y ago
  > Because when Taiwan gets invaded the Fabs will be destroyed and/or made inoperable with no way to get them functional again. And as long as this fucks us, we will be extremely protective of Taiwan. Once USA is silicon-independent, we'll have one less reason to threaten China with war, and China will have one less reason not to invade.
• ekianjo 4y ago
  who says there is only one way to invade Taiwan? a maritime blockade would be super effective to suffocate Taiwan in a matter of months and destroy their economy.
  • mdp2021 4y ago
    > a maritime blockade would be super effective to to create a total war involving the countries dependent on products from Taiwan.
    • ekianjo 4y ago
      The US does not the balls anymore to do anything against China, unfortunately. (Nor the financial interests to do so, with most of the US debt being owned by China)