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yes. QE was through the banks, they filter loan applications. stimulus was direct. but the important thing is that the supply chain issues were already in ful

by pas 4y ago

yes. QE was through the banks, they filter loan applications. stimulus was direct. but the important thing is that the supply chain issues were already in full force. COVID shifted consumption from services to products, put a lot of logistics people out of work in an already stressed sector, plus China's zero covid plus their financial problems decimated products supply. then demand shifted back. wages started to rise millions are missing from the labor force (died, early retirement, low immigration numbers) and this all combined with the fucking war (which led to an energy market shock, which absolutely rocked everything) .. well, it's just not the same game at this point. 2008 recovery was too little both fiscal (ARRA) and monetary (QE was new) this was okay, then Trump wanted one more check... and it was not means-tested.

bumby 4y ago
>wages started to rise I think everything you said made sense. But just to balance it out, there was a recent Planet Money podcast that explained that wage inflation is not the primary cause and that 55% of inflation is attributed to increased profit margin. The rebuttal from another Econ is this is just temporary anomaly and we’ll see wages rise to erode those profits.
- pas 4y ago
  wages will definitely (okay, very very likely) rise, because there is just such a huge gap in jobs and workers. graph here: https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1598042298717155329 https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1598042298717155329 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221...
  - bumby 4y ago
    I think the larger point I was getting at is that current inflation may not be attributed to wage inflation. I’m not discounting that future inflation may come from increased wages, just that it doesn’t seem to be the whole story in the current scenario.

by pas 4y ago

bumby 4y ago

>wages started to rise I think everything you said made sense. But just to balance it out, there was a recent Planet Money podcast that explained that wage inflation is not the primary cause and that 55% of inflation is attributed to increased profit margin. The rebuttal from another Econ is this is just temporary anomaly and we’ll see wages rise to erode those profits.

pas 4y ago
wages will definitely (okay, very very likely) rise, because there is just such a huge gap in jobs and workers. graph here: https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1598042298717155329 https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1598042298717155329 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221...
- bumby 4y ago
  I think the larger point I was getting at is that current inflation may not be attributed to wage inflation. I’m not discounting that future inflation may come from increased wages, just that it doesn’t seem to be the whole story in the current scenario.