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I’m not gonna bet any money on this and I discourage anyone from doing so. Willingness to bet proves nothing about a merit of a prediction, and only loosely abo

I’m not gonna bet any money on this and I discourage anyone from doing so. Willingness to bet proves nothing about a merit of a prediction, and only loosely about ones faith in it. 10 years is a long time, and a lot can happen in that time. In 2017 there was an administration in the White House that was quite hostile to public infrastructure projects and withheld all the federal funding the previous administration had promised. For all we know there will be another administration like that in 2 or 6 years which does the same (or even more) to sabotage the project. In 2018 a new CEO took over the project and took a hard policy against over promising. This is when we saw the initial operating segment being scaled back to only include Bakerfield to Merced by the end of this decade. Since then we’ve actually seen a lot truer projections which have come true. For example Construction Package 4 is almost complete and pretty much on time and on budget.

onphonenow 4y ago
Right - and if you asked the new guy if they will actually run at 2:40 minutes - and he answered, the answered would be - no way. Project is still badly managed. This was in early 2021: “It is beyond comprehension that as of this day, more than two thousand and six hundred calendar days after (official approval to start construction) that the authority has not obtained all of the right of way … ” wrote Tutor Perini Vice President of Operations Ghassan Ariqat to Garth Fernandez, the contracting chief at the state rail authority. And that has only continued. They literally are asking Tutor to build on land they don't own, utility relocations have been going on for YEARS. And the costs to now tunnel back to the coasts (long tunnels near seismic fault lines!). I don't think any plan is credible on that front. The rights of way as you get closer to SF and LA are going to be BRUTAL to get.

onphonenow 4y ago

Right - and if you asked the new guy if they will actually run at 2:40 minutes - and he answered, the answered would be - no way. Project is still badly managed. This was in early 2021: “It is beyond comprehension that as of this day, more than two thousand and six hundred calendar days after (official approval to start construction) that the authority has not obtained all of the right of way … ” wrote Tutor Perini Vice President of Operations Ghassan Ariqat to Garth Fernandez, the contracting chief at the state rail authority. And that has only continued. They literally are asking Tutor to build on land they don't own, utility relocations have been going on for YEARS. And the costs to now tunnel back to the coasts (long tunnels near seismic fault lines!). I don't think any plan is credible on that front. The rights of way as you get closer to SF and LA are going to be BRUTAL to get.