If it were the case that 538 were better than the betting markets, then obviously the bettors would just start following 538's odds until the gap closed. Like

If it were the case that 538 were better than the betting markets, then obviously the bettors would just start following 538's odds until the gap closed. Like if you believe betting markets work at all, you should have always expected them to be at least as good as the best publicly available models. The only interesting outcome would have been if the betting markets were significantly better. All this tells me is that betting markets offer little to no (depending on how large or small you think the error bars on their brier scores are) additional information over statistical modeling.