3 ms·
Election Betting vs. FiveThirtyEight
- edmundsauto 4y agoWould it have changed anything if three had used a Brier score? I’m inclined to say no but am not a stats whiz.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Imnimo 4y agoIf it were the case that 538 were better than the betting markets, then obviously the bettors would just start following 538's odds until the gap closed. Like if you believe betting markets work at all, you should have always expected them to be at least as good as the best publicly available models. The only interesting outcome would have been if the betting markets were significantly better. All this tells me is that betting markets offer little to no (depending on how large or small you think the error bars on their brier scores are) additional information over statistical modeling.
- wilg 4y agoNate Silver definitely is aware of these betting markets. He regularly mentions them in articles and podcasts (though he usually calls them “the Scottish teens” for some reason I assume is quite funny).