5 ms·

>This presents a bit of a puzzle for Bitcoin skeptics. Uh, no, it presents absolutely no puzzle at all for those of us who believe Bitcoin will follow a boom-b

>This presents a bit of a puzzle for Bitcoin skeptics. Uh, no, it presents absolutely no puzzle at all for those of us who believe Bitcoin will follow a boom-bust cycle without ever providing a truly stable currency.

schraeds 15y ago
Wonder what will last longer, the euro or bitcoin.
- bunderbunder 15y ago
  I don't think that's an analogy you really want to draw. The Euro's current problems are due to governments with Euro-denominated debt being unable to take the easy way out of servicing their debt by printing money. One of Bitcoin's defining features is that it's impossible for governments to devalue the currency by just printing money. Since both currencies behave the same way in this regard, a Bitcoin economy would feature the exact same Achilles heel that is causing such trouble for the Eurozone right now.
  - vrotaru 15y ago
    Oh, no. The governments which will borrow more in bitcoin than will be able to pay back, will just default. When Argentina/Russia defaulted on their debts denominated in dollars, how bad was that for the dollar? So... Bad for them (governments), bad for their foolish creditors but a matter of trifling importance for bitcoin as protocol and store of value.
    - lmm 15y ago
      So I think there's a reason they call the time when Russia defaulted the "Rouble crisis".
  - jordanb 15y ago
    "Easy way out of servicing their debt" is a facile misrepresentation of the problem. The problem for a country like, for instance Spain, is that their current account balance has gone highly negative. This can be due to government overspending or private overspending and contraction. In fact Spain didn't have a big public debt problem before the crisis. Their problems stem mostly from contraction of the private sector. If Spain had its own currency, the current account deficit would create a surplus of peseta on the international markets and drive up the price of imports for Spain, while making products produced in Spain cheaper and easier to export. Devaluation would cause short term pain as Spaniards find themselves unable to afford foreign goods but long term prosperity as it would allow their economy to require its footing through favorable export terms. The Euro itself won't be devalued as long as Germany retains a current account surplus. Ironically a very substantial part of Germany's surplus is exports to the so-called "PIIGS." In the US we have examples of winner and loser regions due to our common currency. Witness: Michigan vs. Georgia. The situation here is different though because money can still flow into a loser state like Michigan through the federal government (social security payments, for instance, and highway funds). And most importantly Americans are highly mobile; Michiganders can head off to Chicago or Atlanta so while the prospects for Michigan itself remain bleak, people aren't trapped. The people in the "PIIGS" countries are facing a truly bleak future. The Euro system has denied their countries the tools needed to recover on their own. And the practical realities of (the lack of) labor mobility in the Euro zone mean the people are trapped.
    - chalst 15y ago
      This is an excellent summary. Some minor points: Spain not only didn't have a public debt problem, it was running a surplus on a debt of 60%. And Spain understood the risk of the asset bubble and tried to stop bad property lending by reforming its banks - no help at all, since German banks stepped in to provide inadequately covered loans to finance the bubble... Now PIIGS countries must not default so that foolish non-PIIGS banks don't have their balance sheets destroyed. The simple morality tale that many try to weave does not survive a closer look at events. While I agree with your characterisation of the problem, devaluation is no panacea since (i) it tends to cause inflation, (ii) it only works as advertised if there is adequate global demand, and (iii) the devaluation is equivalent to a default from the point of view of creditors. I lean towards some sort of Eurobond supported by an intra-Eurozone investment programme to support trade imbalances. Finally PIIGS is an awful acronym, who came up with it? PIGIS would be much better, and could be pronounced "piggies".
- creativeembassy 15y ago
  I would wager the bitcoin. I can't believe the euro will last that much longer. Bitcoin's downfall of not being tied to any other currency or institution is also a huge reason to adopt it for the same reason. Because code and ideas behind it are so solid, it won't ever completely lose value. It just needs to stabilize. I can't say the same for the Euro.
gweinberg 15y ago
If Bitcoin were nothing but the pyramid scheme its detractors say it is, it should not have recovered. Collapsed pyramids don't reassemble themselves.
- Steko 15y ago
  There are various groups of Bitcoin detractors and to lump all of them into one is a pretty clear straw man.
- fennecfoxen 15y ago
  My preferred quip is that Bitcoin isn't a pyramid scheme. Technically, it's a 'pump-and-dump'. ;)
nextparadigms 15y ago
I wouldn't say never, but I agree there will be smaller booms and busts for a while, at least until all 21 million Bitcoins are made so there is no more mining, and until Bitcoins starts to be used in regular stores.

schraeds 15y ago

Wonder what will last longer, the euro or bitcoin.

bunderbunder 15y ago
I don't think that's an analogy you really want to draw. The Euro's current problems are due to governments with Euro-denominated debt being unable to take the easy way out of servicing their debt by printing money. One of Bitcoin's defining features is that it's impossible for governments to devalue the currency by just printing money. Since both currencies behave the same way in this regard, a Bitcoin economy would feature the exact same Achilles heel that is causing such trouble for the Eurozone right now.
- vrotaru 15y ago
  Oh, no. The governments which will borrow more in bitcoin than will be able to pay back, will just default. When Argentina/Russia defaulted on their debts denominated in dollars, how bad was that for the dollar? So... Bad for them (governments), bad for their foolish creditors but a matter of trifling importance for bitcoin as protocol and store of value.
  - lmm 15y ago
    So I think there's a reason they call the time when Russia defaulted the "Rouble crisis".
- jordanb 15y ago
  "Easy way out of servicing their debt" is a facile misrepresentation of the problem. The problem for a country like, for instance Spain, is that their current account balance has gone highly negative. This can be due to government overspending or private overspending and contraction. In fact Spain didn't have a big public debt problem before the crisis. Their problems stem mostly from contraction of the private sector. If Spain had its own currency, the current account deficit would create a surplus of peseta on the international markets and drive up the price of imports for Spain, while making products produced in Spain cheaper and easier to export. Devaluation would cause short term pain as Spaniards find themselves unable to afford foreign goods but long term prosperity as it would allow their economy to require its footing through favorable export terms. The Euro itself won't be devalued as long as Germany retains a current account surplus. Ironically a very substantial part of Germany's surplus is exports to the so-called "PIIGS." In the US we have examples of winner and loser regions due to our common currency. Witness: Michigan vs. Georgia. The situation here is different though because money can still flow into a loser state like Michigan through the federal government (social security payments, for instance, and highway funds). And most importantly Americans are highly mobile; Michiganders can head off to Chicago or Atlanta so while the prospects for Michigan itself remain bleak, people aren't trapped. The people in the "PIIGS" countries are facing a truly bleak future. The Euro system has denied their countries the tools needed to recover on their own. And the practical realities of (the lack of) labor mobility in the Euro zone mean the people are trapped.
  - chalst 15y ago
    This is an excellent summary. Some minor points: Spain not only didn't have a public debt problem, it was running a surplus on a debt of 60%. And Spain understood the risk of the asset bubble and tried to stop bad property lending by reforming its banks - no help at all, since German banks stepped in to provide inadequately covered loans to finance the bubble... Now PIIGS countries must not default so that foolish non-PIIGS banks don't have their balance sheets destroyed. The simple morality tale that many try to weave does not survive a closer look at events. While I agree with your characterisation of the problem, devaluation is no panacea since (i) it tends to cause inflation, (ii) it only works as advertised if there is adequate global demand, and (iii) the devaluation is equivalent to a default from the point of view of creditors. I lean towards some sort of Eurobond supported by an intra-Eurozone investment programme to support trade imbalances. Finally PIIGS is an awful acronym, who came up with it? PIGIS would be much better, and could be pronounced "piggies".
creativeembassy 15y ago
I would wager the bitcoin. I can't believe the euro will last that much longer. Bitcoin's downfall of not being tied to any other currency or institution is also a huge reason to adopt it for the same reason. Because code and ideas behind it are so solid, it won't ever completely lose value. It just needs to stabilize. I can't say the same for the Euro.

gweinberg 15y ago

If Bitcoin were nothing but the pyramid scheme its detractors say it is, it should not have recovered. Collapsed pyramids don't reassemble themselves.

Steko 15y ago
There are various groups of Bitcoin detractors and to lump all of them into one is a pretty clear straw man.
fennecfoxen 15y ago
My preferred quip is that Bitcoin isn't a pyramid scheme. Technically, it's a 'pump-and-dump'. ;)

nextparadigms 15y ago

I wouldn't say never, but I agree there will be smaller booms and busts for a while, at least until all 21 million Bitcoins are made so there is no more mining, and until Bitcoins starts to be used in regular stores.