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Right, but if you find yourself (like me) dismissing MANY stories that sound "crazy" or like "conspiracy theories" but then turn out to be true at what point do
by snapcaster 4y ago
Right, but if you find yourself (like me) dismissing MANY stories that sound "crazy" or like "conspiracy theories" but then turn out to be true at what point do you change your priors? I'm not saying you should update to "all conspiracies are true" I'm personally not sure how much I should update but it does seem like there is a hole in my world model that I keep making this mistake over and over (like everyone else)
- dwallin 4y agoThis way madness lies. It's impossible to reach 100% accuracy when evaluating the veracity of a story, we are always operating with imperfect information. How critical you are of evidence helps sets the boundary for your range of reality but if you expand that sphere to make sure you don't leave out anything that might be true you are going to start including an increasingly large amount of things that aren't.