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I think people are missing the forest for the trees here. Beyond Meat had a mad run up in the same way that loads of companies had a mad run up in the ZIRP envi

I think people are missing the forest for the trees here. Beyond Meat had a mad run up in the same way that loads of companies had a mad run up in the ZIRP environment, and now the real questions are being asked: What's the actual TAM, what's the long term margins, what are the competitors in this space. Their market cap was like $7Bn, compared to Kraft Heinz at 45Bn. In the long term, do plant based meat alternatives form anything other than another type of food in the existing market? No. Do BYND have a monopoly on plant based meat alternatives? Also no. So why would BYND trade like anything other than comparable food companies? On top of that, does BYND really seem likely to be a independent company long term considering the other consolidation we see in the market? This is a market where on the supply side you have Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, Neslte - massive consolidation. On the demand side you have Walmart. What does that mean? It means it needs to either grow massively to the point where it can be independent, or the price needs to come down to the point where an acquisition is attractive. We're probably reaching the latter of those two right now. It could be that plant based meats in general grow to became atleast as big as the meat industry, but the likelihood of that being reflected in BYND's stock price is slim.

JeremyNT 4y ago
I think you are on the money. Despite the article's headline (and anecdotes) implying a broader downturn in the sector, I'm inclined to write this off to Beyond expectations being completely out of touch with reality, and possibly some mismanagement / marketing problems specific to Beyond. This statement from Impossible (which is included in the article) directly contradicts the "plant based meats are failing" subtext the article seems to want to push otherwise: > “We’re not experiencing anything like what Beyond Meat has reported or some of the other brands in the space,” Keely Sulprizio, a spokeswoman for Impossible Foods, said in an email. “Quite the opposite: We’re seeing hypergrowth, with over 60 percent year-over-year dollar sales growth in retail alone.” > The IRI data show that while volume sales of Impossible ground meat and faux burger patties were down slightly, volumes of other categories, including frozen faux meat and chicken, soared.

JeremyNT 4y ago

I think you are on the money. Despite the article's headline (and anecdotes) implying a broader downturn in the sector, I'm inclined to write this off to Beyond expectations being completely out of touch with reality, and possibly some mismanagement / marketing problems specific to Beyond. This statement from Impossible (which is included in the article) directly contradicts the "plant based meats are failing" subtext the article seems to want to push otherwise: > “We’re not experiencing anything like what Beyond Meat has reported or some of the other brands in the space,” Keely Sulprizio, a spokeswoman for Impossible Foods, said in an email. “Quite the opposite: We’re seeing hypergrowth, with over 60 percent year-over-year dollar sales growth in retail alone.” > The IRI data show that while volume sales of Impossible ground meat and faux burger patties were down slightly, volumes of other categories, including frozen faux meat and chicken, soared.