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>> Seems like a ridiculous idea to me that so many houses will be built that prices will crash down to the level that anyone can buy them There is an entire hi
by danielmarkbruce 4y ago
>> Seems like a ridiculous idea to me that so many houses will be built that prices will crash down to the level that anyone can buy them
There is an entire history of business where that exact thing happens (assuming anyone isn't literal). Watch the markets for energy (increased drilling causes prices to drop), metals (mines come online, prices drop), ag commodities... and real estate. There was a massive overbuild in the US during the late 90's and early 2000s, which resulted in a big drop in prices.
See here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts#:~:text=Housing%20Starts%20in%20the%20United,units%20in%20April%20of%202009 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts#:~....
The US needed around 1-1.2 million houses to cover new household formation during that period. Massive overbuild. Now look at prices:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
Notice the dip after there had been a build up of supply? Prices dropped about 30%. Then notice the shortage of building for several years... and a run up in prices shortly after? The old supply and demand...
Just using common sense - land is a gigantic part of the cost of a house. If zoning laws made it such that you can build more units on a given piece of land...how could prices do anything but go down?
The old "supply is the solution" is old because it has been true since the beginning of humans buying and selling things.
- nerdponx 4y agoIt's not a theoretical question, but a practical question of relative magnitudes. Can we actually supply enough housing to stabilize prices? And let's say we did, perhaps a great cost, but then what happens in the next big demographic shift? And what of the environmental impact in the process? The "direct" solution is not always the best. This line of thinking always reminds me of the approach to medicine where they'd rather cut out your gallbladder than put you on an elimination diet and send you to an acupuncturist.
- sokoloff 4y agoGiven that there are many areas of the US where there is enough housing for houses to be affordable by the barely or not-quite middle class, it seems like that is possible. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Richmond, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Philly and lots of the surrounding suburban and rural areas.
- danielmarkbruce 4y agoThose statistics above aren't theoretical, it's empirical data, and prices went down 30%.