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Facebook is the largest seller of online display advertising in the world (bigger than Google), and they've still got a relatively immature advertising platform

by ig1 15y ago

Facebook is the largest seller of online display advertising in the world (bigger than Google), and they've still got a relatively immature advertising platform.

jseliger 15y ago
Hard drives are also commodities, which means they sell near cost. If Samsung charges $10 more, people buy from another maker. Facebook is almost the exact opposite: its userbase means that, right now, there is no homologous replacement (including Google+, because they don't have the users). Which doesn't mean FB is "worth" what it's worth—to me it seems overvalued, but then again no one is holding a gun to my head and forcing me to buy its stock. The nice thing about markets is that we can bet with our money, or not.
- bunderbunder 15y ago
  On the other hand, online user bases are notoriously mercurial. Facebook's valuation implies an assumption that Facebook won't fall victim to the forces that have claimed every social site to come before it. That's a pretty gutsy assumption, considering Facebook could plausibly be seriously damaged by something as simple as kids deciding they don't want to hang out at the same place their parents do.
  - ig1 15y ago
    You do realize you could say the same thing about pretty much every company in existence. No-one ever stays on top forever, it's a question of how long you can stay on top for and how much profit you can generate over that period.
- smackfu 15y ago
  Further problems with the hard drive market: 1) SSDs are taking over the market, and that favors flash suppliers like Samsung. 2) All the research dollars to increase sizes just drive the prices down. 3) At some point soon, there will be no need for further drive size increases. Unless someone comes up with a more space-hungry format than 1080p video.
  - mmetzger 15y ago
    In reference to #3, there are 2k and 4k video formats that will likely make the jump to consumer level soon. Saw an 80" LCD TV the other day that looked pixellated - higher res would help.

by ig1 15y ago

Facebook is the largest seller of online display advertising in the world (bigger than Google), and they've still got a relatively immature advertising platform.

jseliger 15y ago

Hard drives are also commodities, which means they sell near cost. If Samsung charges $10 more, people buy from another maker. Facebook is almost the exact opposite: its userbase means that, right now, there is no homologous replacement (including Google+, because they don't have the users). Which doesn't mean FB is "worth" what it's worth—to me it seems overvalued, but then again no one is holding a gun to my head and forcing me to buy its stock. The nice thing about markets is that we can bet with our money, or not.

bunderbunder 15y ago
On the other hand, online user bases are notoriously mercurial. Facebook's valuation implies an assumption that Facebook won't fall victim to the forces that have claimed every social site to come before it. That's a pretty gutsy assumption, considering Facebook could plausibly be seriously damaged by something as simple as kids deciding they don't want to hang out at the same place their parents do.
- ig1 15y ago
  You do realize you could say the same thing about pretty much every company in existence. No-one ever stays on top forever, it's a question of how long you can stay on top for and how much profit you can generate over that period.
smackfu 15y ago
Further problems with the hard drive market: 1) SSDs are taking over the market, and that favors flash suppliers like Samsung. 2) All the research dollars to increase sizes just drive the prices down. 3) At some point soon, there will be no need for further drive size increases. Unless someone comes up with a more space-hungry format than 1080p video.
- mmetzger 15y ago
  In reference to #3, there are 2k and 4k video formats that will likely make the jump to consumer level soon. Saw an 80" LCD TV the other day that looked pixellated - higher res would help.