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I think this will depend hugely on the "where" part of the question. For instance I think self driving technology has near zero chance of being successful in pl
by dustedcodes 4y ago
I think this will depend hugely on the "where" part of the question. For instance I think self driving technology has near zero chance of being successful in places like Europe in the next 50 years. Streets are not built in grids and are super narrow with a lot of "complex" rules like multi lane roundabouts. Europe also has a lot of common sense driving with unspoken rules. Take a narrow road with two way traffic. It's common that both cars would drive at each other and both drivers see a gap where they know that one of the two cars will sideline to let the other car past it. Sometimes a car is already tucked aside and gives the oncoming car a light signal to indicate that they give them priority. Sometimes this is more formal, where you have narrow bridge crossings where there is an official traffic sign that tells who has priority in case of two cars coming at each other and so on. Then there are so many other things like height restrictions due to low bridges and so much more. Observing the "progress" that self driving cars made in the Valley it is clear that it would be a catastrophe anywhere else in their current state.
Having said this, I think we will see a lot more "service" jobs in the future. The wealth gap is widening and there will be more people with a lot of disposable income and many people who will want to make a small cut from those people by providing all sorts of services:
- intimacy (non sexual), this is already a thing in Tokyo where you can pay someone to cuddle with you or hug you
- friends to hire (e.g. someone to go to the theatre, etc.), again already a thing in Japan
- someone to stand in a queue for you in places where you can't make a reservation, Apple stores, etc. (already seen in some places)
- getting paid for a surrogacy pregnancy, for couples who want children but the women is too "busy" for being pregnant
- etc.
There is no end to the creativity of those "service" jobs. Initially it will be weird but in 200 years people will think it's a normal job, just like we think it is normal for someone to file the dead skin of your feet today, cut your nails or wax someone's harry back.
The most secure job will be Doctors and other medical professionals. People are getting older and every human being will require medical treatment in their lives and still we will all die from some medical condition. Healthcare is 100% immune to all other external factors such as how well the economy is doing or what not. People are always ill and the population will still grow to approx. 12 billion before it will start to decline and until then there will be an ever growing pressure on the medical sector. Any technology in that sector will see huge growth if they are not completely sh*t.