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will survive: doctor bricklayer programmer Reasons all the same: difficult to automate with AI due to non-repeating nature of work. However repeating parts

by kuwoze 4y ago

will survive: doctor bricklayer programmer Reasons all the same: difficult to automate with AI due to non-repeating nature of work. However repeating parts will be automated, hence GP likely to be a bot, also things like co-pilot will replace most web-devs. also houses can be mass built in container-like pods and stacked. so this is very nuanced. check-mate cheeky comment section. will not survive: retail worker non-luxury goods delivery driver in cities with regular grid-like streets aka most of the US truck drivers between cities Twitter content moderator Reasons all the same: easy to automate with AI due to repeating nature of work. I think the common theme is that if you want something nice like seeing a human doctor, some personlised service, or a nice brick house you are going to see a human. But this will cost tremenduously. So rich people will interact with humans for most services/products while poor people will be interacting with bots. It's already happening (auto-bot callcentre helplines). Overall very distopian.

JetAlone 4y ago
A new line of work will be created; Butlerian Jihadi.
- nonrandomstring 4y ago
  Kinda yes, in a more serious sense, there will be new roles for humans to play with respect to moderating technologies; "Bladerunners" might not be exactly what P.K Dick imagined, but maybe not so far off. If we take AI to be the science fiction vision we seem to wish for then it will require managing, stewarding, planning, opposing, judging, teaching, healing, hunting down and deactivating, sabotaging, negotiating with.... Bricklayers became architects, surveyors and town planners as complexity increased in the construction world. Cities evolved to have traffic wardens and police... but the same has yet to really mature in digital technology. We imagine all these benefits of "smart cities" and "digital working" - many ideologies that have been around since the 1970s. Yet software engineering is still in its infancy with respect to civic function, ethics, rights and responsibilities, remedies and rules. We have a more or less laissez-faire free-for-all market economy that produces isolated "goods". The failure of this default model can be seen in the tombstones of the Google graveyard. And, while it was a driver of innovation for some time, it isn't really working out in the big "civic" sense, and we certainly cannot rely upon centralised mega monopoly Big-Tech to do the right thing (except in a William Gibson style techno-fascist dystopia). So I think many timeless jobs will adapt so that technologies can fit into our society, as welcome, well-managed friends, rather than allowing them to take-over our society. Maintaining that balance will be a new frontier for human intellectual labour in teaching, legal, planning and policing functions.
teddyuk 4y ago
>> delivery driver in cities with regular grid-like streets aka most of the US So no good in any country older than 245 years old?
oytis 4y ago
We're getting closer to automate programmer's job too though. In the end it's a text problem - get a textual description (ticket) and generate code that fits it. We have models that can generate non-repeating art, why not non-repeating code?
- rob74 4y ago
  ...but once you get your "textual description" to be as exact as it needs to be so code can be generated from it directly, it will be basically indistinguishable from code.
  - flir 4y ago
    Unless the AI is allowed to ask questions, like a regular programmer would? I think we're getting close to strong AI there though, so I don't see it happening any time soon.
    - mkmk3 4y ago
      >> I think we're getting close to strong AI there though, so I don't see it happening any time soon. It's unclear which clause is meant to be negative or positive here. If we're close to strong AI, systems which ask clarifying questions would be close as well, no?
      - flir 4y ago
        Sorry. To be clear: I think strong AI is "fifty years away" and has been for seventy five years. So yeah, an expert system that can read a natural language description of a feature and ask questions until it has enough detail to generate the code is science fiction in my opinion. Having said that, maybe it could be achieved in a limited domain, SHRDLU-style. But that's just a way to deal with the ambiguity by excising it.
  - oytis 4y ago
    It doesn't have to be exact, no more than your input to Dall-E should be exact. Give the AI some understanding of intent of the project, some automatic metrics that will check AI's job quality and let it optimise against it. If AI doesn't generate what you wanted on the first run, correct it and let it learn. Basically what you would do with a junior developer.
defrost 4y ago
> bricklayer Bricklaying was automated 5+ years ago .. locally they've been in heavy use for new homes for three years or so. Robotic bricklayer builds houses 3x faster than humans ( 5 years ago ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6IQB5S1N5I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6IQB5S1N5I
- kuwoze 4y ago
  lol you are indeed the cheeky comment section: yes laying bricks in a long straight line is automated. Laying bricks in more intricate ways would take a lot more time. Also the machine still has to have human super vision and they seem to clean the mortar. It's nuanced

by kuwoze 4y ago

JetAlone 4y ago

A new line of work will be created; Butlerian Jihadi.

nonrandomstring 4y ago
Kinda yes, in a more serious sense, there will be new roles for humans to play with respect to moderating technologies; "Bladerunners" might not be exactly what P.K Dick imagined, but maybe not so far off. If we take AI to be the science fiction vision we seem to wish for then it will require managing, stewarding, planning, opposing, judging, teaching, healing, hunting down and deactivating, sabotaging, negotiating with.... Bricklayers became architects, surveyors and town planners as complexity increased in the construction world. Cities evolved to have traffic wardens and police... but the same has yet to really mature in digital technology. We imagine all these benefits of "smart cities" and "digital working" - many ideologies that have been around since the 1970s. Yet software engineering is still in its infancy with respect to civic function, ethics, rights and responsibilities, remedies and rules. We have a more or less laissez-faire free-for-all market economy that produces isolated "goods". The failure of this default model can be seen in the tombstones of the Google graveyard. And, while it was a driver of innovation for some time, it isn't really working out in the big "civic" sense, and we certainly cannot rely upon centralised mega monopoly Big-Tech to do the right thing (except in a William Gibson style techno-fascist dystopia). So I think many timeless jobs will adapt so that technologies can fit into our society, as welcome, well-managed friends, rather than allowing them to take-over our society. Maintaining that balance will be a new frontier for human intellectual labour in teaching, legal, planning and policing functions.

teddyuk 4y ago

>> delivery driver in cities with regular grid-like streets aka most of the US So no good in any country older than 245 years old?

oytis 4y ago

We're getting closer to automate programmer's job too though. In the end it's a text problem - get a textual description (ticket) and generate code that fits it. We have models that can generate non-repeating art, why not non-repeating code?

rob74 4y ago
...but once you get your "textual description" to be as exact as it needs to be so code can be generated from it directly, it will be basically indistinguishable from code.
- flir 4y ago
  Unless the AI is allowed to ask questions, like a regular programmer would? I think we're getting close to strong AI there though, so I don't see it happening any time soon.
  - mkmk3 4y ago
    >> I think we're getting close to strong AI there though, so I don't see it happening any time soon. It's unclear which clause is meant to be negative or positive here. If we're close to strong AI, systems which ask clarifying questions would be close as well, no?
    - flir 4y ago
      Sorry. To be clear: I think strong AI is "fifty years away" and has been for seventy five years. So yeah, an expert system that can read a natural language description of a feature and ask questions until it has enough detail to generate the code is science fiction in my opinion. Having said that, maybe it could be achieved in a limited domain, SHRDLU-style. But that's just a way to deal with the ambiguity by excising it.
- oytis 4y ago
  It doesn't have to be exact, no more than your input to Dall-E should be exact. Give the AI some understanding of intent of the project, some automatic metrics that will check AI's job quality and let it optimise against it. If AI doesn't generate what you wanted on the first run, correct it and let it learn. Basically what you would do with a junior developer.

defrost 4y ago

> bricklayer Bricklaying was automated 5+ years ago .. locally they've been in heavy use for new homes for three years or so. Robotic bricklayer builds houses 3x faster than humans ( 5 years ago ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6IQB5S1N5I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6IQB5S1N5I

kuwoze 4y ago
lol you are indeed the cheeky comment section: yes laying bricks in a long straight line is automated. Laying bricks in more intricate ways would take a lot more time. Also the machine still has to have human super vision and they seem to clean the mortar. It's nuanced