4 ms·

So? There's still lots and lots and lots of cheap labor to import for decades. The „competitive pressure“ will just worsen corporate pressure on local labour.

by mantas 4y ago

So? There's still lots and lots and lots of cheap labor to import for decades. The „competitive pressure“ will just worsen corporate pressure on local labour. Oh, immigration is getting lower, so we need more tax exemptions for new arrivals! Think „digital nomads“ (or whatever fancy term nowadays) visas.

vidarh 4y ago
It's insufficient to have cheap unskilled labour. Shortages of skilled labour will come much sooner. More importantly, even small changes in demand means immigrants can and will be more picky about where to go. Growth in their original countries also means a reduced supply of willing candidates. E.g. the UK saw that with Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge. As the demographics shift starts hitting more countries, it's not just that the total number of people in working age in those countries drop, but the proportion of them who has it financially bad enough at home to want to leave drops.
- Reason077 4y ago
  > ”Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge.” There has always been steady flow of Polish migrant workers to and from the UK. Workers would make money and develop skills in the UK, sometimes remaining permanently but also often returning after a number of years, particularly once you get you the “raising a family” stage in life where lower cost of living and being close to extended family becomes a bigger attraction. The difference now is that the supply of new workers has been reduced by Brexit, so only those existing workers with residency rights remain. I doubt there has been any significant increase in the number of workers leaving, aside from temporary changes during the pandemic.
  - vidarh 4y ago
    The return of Polish workers and falloff of new ones started several years before Brexit, as Poland started experiencing a lack of skilled builders and salaries grew significantly as a result. Exchange rate changes also contributed significantly. The same effect was seen elsewhere too, e.g. in Norway. The first reports of a massively reduced influx goes as far back as 2008, which is also when we started seeing reports of a significant outflow w/the Home Office estimating in 2008 that about 25% returned.

by mantas 4y ago

vidarh 4y ago

It's insufficient to have cheap unskilled labour. Shortages of skilled labour will come much sooner. More importantly, even small changes in demand means immigrants can and will be more picky about where to go. Growth in their original countries also means a reduced supply of willing candidates. E.g. the UK saw that with Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge. As the demographics shift starts hitting more countries, it's not just that the total number of people in working age in those countries drop, but the proportion of them who has it financially bad enough at home to want to leave drops.

Reason077 4y ago
> ”Polish immigrants in the building trade who started returning as salaries increased at home, despite the disparity still being huge.” There has always been steady flow of Polish migrant workers to and from the UK. Workers would make money and develop skills in the UK, sometimes remaining permanently but also often returning after a number of years, particularly once you get you the “raising a family” stage in life where lower cost of living and being close to extended family becomes a bigger attraction. The difference now is that the supply of new workers has been reduced by Brexit, so only those existing workers with residency rights remain. I doubt there has been any significant increase in the number of workers leaving, aside from temporary changes during the pandemic.
- vidarh 4y ago
  The return of Polish workers and falloff of new ones started several years before Brexit, as Poland started experiencing a lack of skilled builders and salaries grew significantly as a result. Exchange rate changes also contributed significantly. The same effect was seen elsewhere too, e.g. in Norway. The first reports of a massively reduced influx goes as far back as 2008, which is also when we started seeing reports of a significant outflow w/the Home Office estimating in 2008 that about 25% returned.