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To make policy we should measure lethal heat events against lethal cold events. Cold events seem to be more dangerous on the whole. Do they decrease as the glob

To make policy we should measure lethal heat events against lethal cold events. Cold events seem to be more dangerous on the whole. Do they decrease as the globe warms? "Researchers analyzed data on heat- and cold-related injuries that required a hospital visit in [Illinois] between 2011 and 2018. They identified around 24,000 cases each related to the cold and to heat. "Of those, there were 1,935 cold-related deaths and 70 heat-related ones. The cold caused 94% of temperature-related deaths, even though hypothermia (a drop in the body's core temperature) was responsible for only 27% of temperature-related hospital visits." -- https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20200827/what-is-more-deadly-in-the-us-hot-weather-or-cold https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20200827/what-is-mor...

kbutler 4y ago
Yes, cold deaths vastly outnumber heat deaths (600k from heat but 4.5m from cold annually worldwide). And yes, increased warmth decreases cold deaths - about 2x (283k avoided cold deaths vs 116k increased heat deaths per year). https://www.lomborg.com/the-heresy-of-heat-and-cold-deaths https://www.lomborg.com/the-heresy-of-heat-and-cold-deaths This effect is probably magnified by the fact that more warming occurs in nighttime temperatures, winter temperatures, and polar areas.
- AstralStorm 4y ago
  Ever been to a desert? They get very cold at night... So heating might well enhance the cold fatalities, much like ones due to other disasters like floods, dust, droughts, crop failures etc.
defrost 4y ago
> Do they decrease as the globe warms? In the near term (next century) they may well increase in ferocity and intensity. The physics is straightforward, "mean temp rising" across the entire Earth surface translates to more free energy trapped at the near earth land and water layers, that's more enery for winds (storm) and driving heat pumps (freezing cells). A relevant overly simplified high physics question is: There is a freezer with its door open in a sealed room .. over time does the room get hotter or colder? AGW is projected to have many knock on effects about the globe, pinning down which of these will happen where and to what degree is harder than the simple conclusion that such things will happen - and they are all disruptive to life as we humans know it.

kbutler 4y ago

Yes, cold deaths vastly outnumber heat deaths (600k from heat but 4.5m from cold annually worldwide). And yes, increased warmth decreases cold deaths - about 2x (283k avoided cold deaths vs 116k increased heat deaths per year). https://www.lomborg.com/the-heresy-of-heat-and-cold-deaths https://www.lomborg.com/the-heresy-of-heat-and-cold-deaths This effect is probably magnified by the fact that more warming occurs in nighttime temperatures, winter temperatures, and polar areas.

AstralStorm 4y ago
Ever been to a desert? They get very cold at night... So heating might well enhance the cold fatalities, much like ones due to other disasters like floods, dust, droughts, crop failures etc.

defrost 4y ago

> Do they decrease as the globe warms? In the near term (next century) they may well increase in ferocity and intensity. The physics is straightforward, "mean temp rising" across the entire Earth surface translates to more free energy trapped at the near earth land and water layers, that's more enery for winds (storm) and driving heat pumps (freezing cells). A relevant overly simplified high physics question is: There is a freezer with its door open in a sealed room .. over time does the room get hotter or colder? AGW is projected to have many knock on effects about the globe, pinning down which of these will happen where and to what degree is harder than the simple conclusion that such things will happen - and they are all disruptive to life as we humans know it.