4 ms·

I know it’s getting boring to talk about Musk, but the ongoing Twitter experiment is just so fascinating because it’s the first time in history that someone has

by pavlov 4y ago

I know it’s getting boring to talk about Musk, but the ongoing Twitter experiment is just so fascinating because it’s the first time in history that someone has tried to autocratically reboot a $40 billion tech company with massive regulatory liabilities. So I’m wondering about this part: > Elon is currently applying the playbook to Twitter: > Scale back drastically, ideally the closest to your Series A size and cost base; > Protect your core: engineering and science What exactly is he doing to protect the core? It seems like it’s been all stick, no carrot. What are the incentives for Twitter’s best to stay, other than second-hand exposure to the Musk aura?

texasbigdata 4y ago
Speculation: option pools (at least pre-ipo) are generally a fixed %age and therefore relative size. With fewer engineers the ones left get a higher piece of the pie? Just a guess.
- pavlov 4y ago
  But will that compensate for the almost inevitable outcome that the next liquidity event will be a massive downround compared to the $44B valuation of the acquisition? Maybe there’s only 25% of employees left to share the pie, but the pie itself is now only worth $10B. That’s not a great incentive when asked to work nights and weekends on capricious initiatives that come and go.
  - 411111111111111 4y ago
    It is if stopping to work is equivalent with getting deported though. Great system the US created with h-1b
    - ghaff 4y ago
      The problem is that the following is what is was intended for: "The H-1B program allows companies and other employers in the United States to temporarily employ foreign workers in occupations that require the theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge and a bachelor’s degree or higher in the specific specialty, or its equivalent." Note, among other things, the word "temporarily" and the phrase :highly specialized knowledge." The real problem is that H-1Bs are often used by companies in very different ways than their stated purpose.
  - texasbigdata 4y ago
    I’ve never received RSUs in a public company but can’t you basically set the strike price at whatever value you want? It’s just a financial instrument after all. NOTE, I’m not arguing for backdating.
    - toast0 4y ago
      RSUs have a strike price of $0 kind of by definition. And they're income when the restriction lapses, and that's complex when the stock is illiquid, so that's not ideal (sometimes, there's a dual restriction with time and liquidity, but that's messy as well) Stock options could have a strike price of whatever, but tax favored stock options need to be granted at fair market value. Granting non-favored options away from FMV needs to be treated as immediate income, which is messy.
- eschneider 4y ago
  Assume that's true. Ask yourself this question: Is Elon Musk the sort of person who'd fire you just before you vest so he didn't have to pay out?
  - texasbigdata 4y ago
    Not sure, but I’d assume I’d be such a rounding error on the cap table that it probably wouldn’t be worth a milisecond of his processing time.
    - eropple 4y ago
      He spends his time complaining on Twitter and hosting faux polls to unban right-wing trolls while misquoting "vox populi, vox dei". He can almost certainly make time for spite.
- lucideer 4y ago
  That makes the incredibly naïve (but equally incredibly common) that employees are literal resources of equivalent value. In actual fact, excepting "cultural loyalty" (which is usually interrupted in any such large acquisition/disruption event) essential employees are typically the most transient/difficult to retain. Many are not as remuneration-driven (more likely to be comfortable & their competence is often driven by a more vocational motivating factor) & even those who are can negotiate good terms elsewhere with relative ease. This leads to a concentrated brain-drain where the fewer engineers remaining to partake in the pie aren't contributing as much value. That ain't protecting your core.
luckylion 4y ago
> What are the incentives for Twitter’s best to stay, other than second-hand exposure to the Musk aura? Fun, maybe? I'm not smart enough to work on those kinds of problems, but I do love a challenge. If I was an actual CS person with relevant experience, I could totally see myself working at that kind of company. It's not what you do forever, but it's totally fun.
- pavlov 4y ago
  That’s the same kind of fun one can have at a well-funded startup, and it doesn’t come with the technical and regulatory baggage that Twitter carries. From my POV, the massive scale of Twitter is nothing but downside for engineering focus in the current situation where all the moderation and legal frameworks have been blown to bits. I spent a couple of years at Facebook, so I’ve seen what the legal reality is for product work in high-volume social media. Nothing could entice me to work in a situation where I as an engineer became personally responsible for managing that. Yet that’s the de facto situation at Twitter. They’re not even taking meetings with EU regulators anymore because there’s nobody left at the company! It’s not my kind of fun if I’m being asked to make rushed decisions that can lead to multi-billion fines and/or distress and physical harm to users.
  - luckylion 4y ago
    Maybe, but most startups aren't at that scale and impact yet (and they'd be smart not to build as if they were imho), so it's a different kind of fun, and t. The mental reward of getting a fire-fighting assignment and putting out the flames is something I enjoy occasionally. I'd imagine the same exists on the legal and product side, too. They need people who love a challenge and want to see whether they can overcome it, they need adventurers. No clue if it'll be successful, but I can see the appeal.
dalbasal 4y ago
One of the reasons MuskStuff us getting boring us that he hasn't said anything real/significant regarding his intentions, strategies, motivations, analyses and whatnot. There was an investor case/ business plan that could have been prepared by 19year old MBAs. There was some nonspecific media bait on free speech. That kind of noncontent is pretty typical for business comms, but it's not what Musk did before. With Tesla/SpaceX/neuralink/etc... Musk told us the strategic case. We knew what he was up to, what the main risks were, the goals the milestones, the reasons. All commentary about Twitter is rooted in speculation and smartarsery. Maybe what you describe (reboot) is what Musk's up to. We don't know. It's like taking sides in the abusive screaming session happening in the house next door. No one cares when
YetAnotherNick 4y ago
> What are the incentives for Twitter’s best to stay? Money maybe? If the employee count is half and they have more lax firing due to non performance, theoretically it could allow them to better reward top performers. Not sure if that is practically what is happening, but Musk seems to have good enough track record previously in building teams of productive people. Also lot of best people like to work in productive teams, and don't like teammates that slack off without repercussion.
- jsnell 4y ago
  Musk has a great track record at building top teams in situations where the company has a world-changing mission, and the company is basically the only place in the world you can work to achieve that mission (Tesla, SpaceX). That attracts people who care about that mission, and means they'll accept relatively low pay and Musk's abusive management practices. Nu-Twitter doesn't have that. They've got interesting infrastructrure problems, but so do a dozen other companies working at similar scale. Musk's product vision seems to be incredibly incremental, e.g. the $8 checkmarks. Honestly, the only mission that Musk seems to be setting up in his public writing is the free speech bit, applying only to his alt-right pals? And if that's the mission he tries to build a team around, it's hard to see advertisers and normal users sticking to the platform for much longer.
  - willmadden 4y ago
    He hasn’t shown you his hand. The obvious stuff: * adding features people want but are denied by ESG transnationals (privacy, e2e encryption, removing politically motivated censorship) - this is huge and a guaranteed win short term. Stuff that will happen if the google/Apple make the wrong moves, which they likely will: * programmable mobile phone with crypto chip and starlink carrier for recurring revenue when/if google and Apple ban Twitter app from their walled gardens * adding crypto/stable coin based “wallet” to Twitter which cross-sells the mobile phone with crypto chip
    - nkohari 4y ago
      > programmable mobile phone with crypto chip and starlink carrier for recurring revenue when/if google and Apple ban Twitter app from their walled gardens This would be a world-class feat of engineering, which would also require that Twitter hire a set of engineers entirely different than the ones they have. It's difficult to see how they'd pull this off successfully.
cyrilgrislain 4y ago
I think we may find the answers by reflecting upon: what were the incentives for the best astro-aero engineers to leave Nasa, Boeing, etc and join SpaceX in its beginning? Join Elon who had 0 track record in Space, came from dot.com SW? he paid quite poorly. Nobody believed in SpaceX. He made clear he had money for only 3 attempts. etc, etc. Also, when you are part of a company that used to run with 7000 people, and you realize it can run with a fraction of that AND you have been chosen to be part of that fraction, that must (and should) speak highly to many.

by pavlov 4y ago

texasbigdata 4y ago

Speculation: option pools (at least pre-ipo) are generally a fixed %age and therefore relative size. With fewer engineers the ones left get a higher piece of the pie? Just a guess.

pavlov 4y ago
But will that compensate for the almost inevitable outcome that the next liquidity event will be a massive downround compared to the $44B valuation of the acquisition? Maybe there’s only 25% of employees left to share the pie, but the pie itself is now only worth $10B. That’s not a great incentive when asked to work nights and weekends on capricious initiatives that come and go.
- 411111111111111 4y ago
  It is if stopping to work is equivalent with getting deported though. Great system the US created with h-1b
  - ghaff 4y ago
    The problem is that the following is what is was intended for: "The H-1B program allows companies and other employers in the United States to temporarily employ foreign workers in occupations that require the theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge and a bachelor’s degree or higher in the specific specialty, or its equivalent." Note, among other things, the word "temporarily" and the phrase :highly specialized knowledge." The real problem is that H-1Bs are often used by companies in very different ways than their stated purpose.
- texasbigdata 4y ago
  I’ve never received RSUs in a public company but can’t you basically set the strike price at whatever value you want? It’s just a financial instrument after all. NOTE, I’m not arguing for backdating.
  - toast0 4y ago
    RSUs have a strike price of $0 kind of by definition. And they're income when the restriction lapses, and that's complex when the stock is illiquid, so that's not ideal (sometimes, there's a dual restriction with time and liquidity, but that's messy as well) Stock options could have a strike price of whatever, but tax favored stock options need to be granted at fair market value. Granting non-favored options away from FMV needs to be treated as immediate income, which is messy.
eschneider 4y ago
Assume that's true. Ask yourself this question: Is Elon Musk the sort of person who'd fire you just before you vest so he didn't have to pay out?
- texasbigdata 4y ago
  Not sure, but I’d assume I’d be such a rounding error on the cap table that it probably wouldn’t be worth a milisecond of his processing time.
  - eropple 4y ago
    He spends his time complaining on Twitter and hosting faux polls to unban right-wing trolls while misquoting "vox populi, vox dei". He can almost certainly make time for spite.
lucideer 4y ago
That makes the incredibly naïve (but equally incredibly common) that employees are literal resources of equivalent value. In actual fact, excepting "cultural loyalty" (which is usually interrupted in any such large acquisition/disruption event) essential employees are typically the most transient/difficult to retain. Many are not as remuneration-driven (more likely to be comfortable & their competence is often driven by a more vocational motivating factor) & even those who are can negotiate good terms elsewhere with relative ease. This leads to a concentrated brain-drain where the fewer engineers remaining to partake in the pie aren't contributing as much value. That ain't protecting your core.

luckylion 4y ago

> What are the incentives for Twitter’s best to stay, other than second-hand exposure to the Musk aura? Fun, maybe? I'm not smart enough to work on those kinds of problems, but I do love a challenge. If I was an actual CS person with relevant experience, I could totally see myself working at that kind of company. It's not what you do forever, but it's totally fun.

pavlov 4y ago
That’s the same kind of fun one can have at a well-funded startup, and it doesn’t come with the technical and regulatory baggage that Twitter carries. From my POV, the massive scale of Twitter is nothing but downside for engineering focus in the current situation where all the moderation and legal frameworks have been blown to bits. I spent a couple of years at Facebook, so I’ve seen what the legal reality is for product work in high-volume social media. Nothing could entice me to work in a situation where I as an engineer became personally responsible for managing that. Yet that’s the de facto situation at Twitter. They’re not even taking meetings with EU regulators anymore because there’s nobody left at the company! It’s not my kind of fun if I’m being asked to make rushed decisions that can lead to multi-billion fines and/or distress and physical harm to users.
- luckylion 4y ago
  Maybe, but most startups aren't at that scale and impact yet (and they'd be smart not to build as if they were imho), so it's a different kind of fun, and t. The mental reward of getting a fire-fighting assignment and putting out the flames is something I enjoy occasionally. I'd imagine the same exists on the legal and product side, too. They need people who love a challenge and want to see whether they can overcome it, they need adventurers. No clue if it'll be successful, but I can see the appeal.

dalbasal 4y ago

One of the reasons MuskStuff us getting boring us that he hasn't said anything real/significant regarding his intentions, strategies, motivations, analyses and whatnot. There was an investor case/ business plan that could have been prepared by 19year old MBAs. There was some nonspecific media bait on free speech. That kind of noncontent is pretty typical for business comms, but it's not what Musk did before. With Tesla/SpaceX/neuralink/etc... Musk told us the strategic case. We knew what he was up to, what the main risks were, the goals the milestones, the reasons. All commentary about Twitter is rooted in speculation and smartarsery. Maybe what you describe (reboot) is what Musk's up to. We don't know. It's like taking sides in the abusive screaming session happening in the house next door. No one cares when

YetAnotherNick 4y ago

> What are the incentives for Twitter’s best to stay? Money maybe? If the employee count is half and they have more lax firing due to non performance, theoretically it could allow them to better reward top performers. Not sure if that is practically what is happening, but Musk seems to have good enough track record previously in building teams of productive people. Also lot of best people like to work in productive teams, and don't like teammates that slack off without repercussion.

jsnell 4y ago
Musk has a great track record at building top teams in situations where the company has a world-changing mission, and the company is basically the only place in the world you can work to achieve that mission (Tesla, SpaceX). That attracts people who care about that mission, and means they'll accept relatively low pay and Musk's abusive management practices. Nu-Twitter doesn't have that. They've got interesting infrastructrure problems, but so do a dozen other companies working at similar scale. Musk's product vision seems to be incredibly incremental, e.g. the $8 checkmarks. Honestly, the only mission that Musk seems to be setting up in his public writing is the free speech bit, applying only to his alt-right pals? And if that's the mission he tries to build a team around, it's hard to see advertisers and normal users sticking to the platform for much longer.
- willmadden 4y ago
  He hasn’t shown you his hand. The obvious stuff: * adding features people want but are denied by ESG transnationals (privacy, e2e encryption, removing politically motivated censorship) - this is huge and a guaranteed win short term. Stuff that will happen if the google/Apple make the wrong moves, which they likely will: * programmable mobile phone with crypto chip and starlink carrier for recurring revenue when/if google and Apple ban Twitter app from their walled gardens * adding crypto/stable coin based “wallet” to Twitter which cross-sells the mobile phone with crypto chip
  - nkohari 4y ago
    > programmable mobile phone with crypto chip and starlink carrier for recurring revenue when/if google and Apple ban Twitter app from their walled gardens This would be a world-class feat of engineering, which would also require that Twitter hire a set of engineers entirely different than the ones they have. It's difficult to see how they'd pull this off successfully.

cyrilgrislain 4y ago

I think we may find the answers by reflecting upon: what were the incentives for the best astro-aero engineers to leave Nasa, Boeing, etc and join SpaceX in its beginning? Join Elon who had 0 track record in Space, came from dot.com SW? he paid quite poorly. Nobody believed in SpaceX. He made clear he had money for only 3 attempts. etc, etc. Also, when you are part of a company that used to run with 7000 people, and you realize it can run with a fraction of that AND you have been chosen to be part of that fraction, that must (and should) speak highly to many.