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At a minimum optimizing for "replacement" theoretically allows a population to continue to exist as it is (assuming all kinds of things like everyone backfills
by spicyusername 4y ago
At a minimum optimizing for "replacement" theoretically allows a population to continue to exist as it is (assuming all kinds of things like everyone backfills the jobs that are already filled, etc, etc)
A shrinking population is terrible as there are less and less people to support existing institutions like social services, infrastructure, healthcare, etc.
A very simple example is social security. It is a net wealth transfer from working age people to retirement age people.
If there's not enough working age people then there is not enough to support the retirement age people.
- seydor 4y agoWe have to assume then that people are calculating otherwise: - Smaller population will need less infrastructure - They don't plan to support the old - Pension plans were fit for 20th century, esp. post-WW2, but they can't work anymore
- gervwyk 4y agoWith you on the pension fund remark, bit whats next / else?
- seydor 4y agonothing
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago> They don't plan to support the old Plot twist: They're going to become the old. They don't seem to have that as part of their calculation...
- _nalply 4y agoI am sure that some do. However even if they have many children it doesn't help them if everybody else doesn't.
- jtbayly 4y agoIt sure can. Having children who love you and will take care of you was how it worked for millennia.
- _nalply 4y agoYou misunderstood me. I was writing about demographics.
- jtbayly 4y agoBut the question is whether there is a benefit to having children once you get old, even if nobody else does (ie including getting old yourself in “the calculation”). Demographically you’re in a world of trouble still, but then having children is actually far more important if society and its safety nets are collapsing.
- deltree7 4y agoIt's very simplistic. At the end of the day it is all about productivity. If 1 person (augmented with AI) can be 5x productive then you can easily support aging population. At the end of the day, population needs goods and services (not money) to improve their standard of living.
- rich_sasha 4y agoI don't think we see it play out this way. Japan is the poster child for this. They also like technology and don't like immigration. But their economy has deep structural issues.
- Jensson 4y agoDoes it have more issues for the people living there than in other countries, or is it just that capitalists doesn't feel they can make enough profit in Japan? Often times the "economy" just refers to the amount of profits and not the amount of value delivered to end users.
- RestlessMind 4y agoI haven't seen any evidence that we can be 5x productive. Do you have any data to back your argument?
- xboxnolifes 4y agoThis is looking at it from the wrong perspective though. People, by and large, optimize their choices for their self, not for "society". Replacement rate is a concept that exists at an abstraction level above the individual. It's not something that an individual can fix, and optimizing for it doesn't necessarily help the individual. At best its something that you may see cultural push for.