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> Twitter has averaged a 25% average growth rate per year, and if it sustained that level of growth it would soon be worth what Elon paid for it. I'm sorry but

> Twitter has averaged a 25% average growth rate per year, and if it sustained that level of growth it would soon be worth what Elon paid for it. I'm sorry but I'm very skeptical of this. It's unclear to me if you mean revenue or MAU but I would doubt it's growing at 25%. That would be an insane curve of exponential growth which I'm fairly certain is not the case for Twitter.

akamaka 4y ago
I should have been more clear, 25% is their average annual revenue growth over the last decade. Obviously there have been good years and bad, but in 2021 they hit 37%, so the capacity for big growth is clearly not in the past. Elon bought the company for $44 billion, so he too clearly agrees that the potential for growth is high.
- jdmoreira 4y ago
  I'm still not sure if those percentages you are mentioning are revenue (from ads) or MAUI. If they are from revenue from ads, well those were bound to go down a lot as soon as the economy flipped. > Elon bought the company for $44 billion It's more complicated than that. He agreed to pay $44 billion at a certain moment in time where interest rates were negative. The way these acquisitions work is by borrowing a huge amount of money (something like 80% of the deal) putting up a much lower percentage of your own money (say 20%) and then using the business itself as collateral agains the loan. The math changes a lot when interest rates change. That's why he tried to bail out of seeing it through.
  - encoderer 4y ago
    Yes, he made a terrible deal. He had terrible timing, showed no discipline by waiving due diligence, and overpaid for twitter.
  - shagie 4y ago
    > He agreed to pay $44 billion at a certain moment in time where interest rates were negative. For $50 and $4.20 I would question how deeply he thought about the price and how much of that was his thumbing his nose at the SEC.

akamaka 4y ago

I should have been more clear, 25% is their average annual revenue growth over the last decade. Obviously there have been good years and bad, but in 2021 they hit 37%, so the capacity for big growth is clearly not in the past. Elon bought the company for $44 billion, so he too clearly agrees that the potential for growth is high.

jdmoreira 4y ago
I'm still not sure if those percentages you are mentioning are revenue (from ads) or MAUI. If they are from revenue from ads, well those were bound to go down a lot as soon as the economy flipped. > Elon bought the company for $44 billion It's more complicated than that. He agreed to pay $44 billion at a certain moment in time where interest rates were negative. The way these acquisitions work is by borrowing a huge amount of money (something like 80% of the deal) putting up a much lower percentage of your own money (say 20%) and then using the business itself as collateral agains the loan. The math changes a lot when interest rates change. That's why he tried to bail out of seeing it through.
- encoderer 4y ago
  Yes, he made a terrible deal. He had terrible timing, showed no discipline by waiving due diligence, and overpaid for twitter.
- shagie 4y ago
  > He agreed to pay $44 billion at a certain moment in time where interest rates were negative. For $50 and $4.20 I would question how deeply he thought about the price and how much of that was his thumbing his nose at the SEC.