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The article claims that the BLM protests made little difference, and include a graph of various states comparing the amount of shoplifting with the amount of pr

The article claims that the BLM protests made little difference, and include a graph of various states comparing the amount of shoplifting with the amount of prosecution. Generally there doesn’t seem to be a correlation between states with large BLM protests and reduced prosecution. For example, Oregon had huge protests and weak government responses, and yet prosecutes large amounts of shoplifting. Blaming this on the response to BLM seems intuitive, but I have yet to see data that supports it.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
As others have said, aggregating at the state level makes no sense. For example, in Austin, TX, I can't speak for retail crimes in particular but there has most definitely been a change in prosecuting other crimes. Hit-and-runs are an epidemic now in the city, primarily because the police won't even respond unless there is a major injury. I was in a hit and run, I got a detailed description of the car and license plate, and yet there were 0 consequences to the person that hit me. It actually makes more sense to run if you hit someone because there are literally no downsides (except for people with a conscience, of course). But if you looked across TX as a whole, this data would definitely not show up.
Bud 4y ago
cm2187 4y ago
Law enforcement is not done at the state level but at the city level.
- compiler-guy 4y ago
  The stats are prosecutions aggregated by state, not state prosecutions.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    My point is that you can have a democrat city abdicating law enforcement in a republican state. What matters for local crime is the city, not the wider state.
- AuthorizedCust 4y ago
  False. Law enforcement has many layers with concurrent jurisdiction. It’s not just city. How each jurisdiction polices can vary widely depending on where you are.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    State police doesn't deal with shoplifting.
tyrfing 4y ago
> For example, Oregon had huge protests and weak government responses, and yet prosecutes large amounts of shoplifting. https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/multnomah-county-misdemeanor-theft-shoplifting-prosecutions/283-f787c79b-a70c-4cb6-b48a-fb22cafbc15d https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/multnomah-co... There were not protests state wide, they were in a single county, the one in which shoplifting isn't prosecuted as much. A couple miles away, with different DAs, you will get arrested and prosecuted for even very minor theft. > Unseating [Washington Co DA] Barton has been a priority for national progressive groups funding criminal justice reform in Oregon. > “Washington County is the most extreme county I’ve ever worked in, and that’s because of the tough on crime, war on drugs, lock 'em up and throw away the key fanaticism coming from the DA’s office,” Decker said. This is the person responsible for a 93% prosecution rate, being re-elected on the basis of "law and order" and relatively conservative viewpoints, backlash against the BLM protest responses that you talk about.
- Retric 4y ago
  Protests draw from a much wider area than just where they physically take place.
- rhaway84773 4y ago
  And yet the shoplifting problem is across those county lines and across state lines even. Whit contradicts the idea that the BLM protests are responsible.
psychphysic 4y ago
Invariably people will blame BLM there's a lot of latent disgruntlement.
- nverno 4y ago
  People love simple explanations. BLM obviously wasn't a causal factor, but general mayhem/disorder certainly facilitated things like shoplifting. There were a lot of people doing what sublime did back in '92 [1]. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ttchToDa7Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ttchToDa7Y
NotYourLawyer 4y ago
Policing, not prosecutions.
throw__away7391 4y ago
And what do you suppose would happen to the career of a researcher who published a study showing such a correlation?
- acdha 4y ago
  That depends on how rigorous their work was. If they did a good job, that would be a major career boost and would likely get them tenure. If they did a flawed but plausible sounding job, they’d likely get a book deal and could become a fixture on conservative media which would pay more but would limit the places they get tenure.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

As others have said, aggregating at the state level makes no sense. For example, in Austin, TX, I can't speak for retail crimes in particular but there has most definitely been a change in prosecuting other crimes. Hit-and-runs are an epidemic now in the city, primarily because the police won't even respond unless there is a major injury. I was in a hit and run, I got a detailed description of the car and license plate, and yet there were 0 consequences to the person that hit me. It actually makes more sense to run if you hit someone because there are literally no downsides (except for people with a conscience, of course). But if you looked across TX as a whole, this data would definitely not show up.

Bud 4y ago

cm2187 4y ago

Law enforcement is not done at the state level but at the city level.

compiler-guy 4y ago
The stats are prosecutions aggregated by state, not state prosecutions.
- cm2187 4y ago
  My point is that you can have a democrat city abdicating law enforcement in a republican state. What matters for local crime is the city, not the wider state.
AuthorizedCust 4y ago
False. Law enforcement has many layers with concurrent jurisdiction. It’s not just city. How each jurisdiction polices can vary widely depending on where you are.
- cm2187 4y ago
  State police doesn't deal with shoplifting.

tyrfing 4y ago

> For example, Oregon had huge protests and weak government responses, and yet prosecutes large amounts of shoplifting. https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/multnomah-county-misdemeanor-theft-shoplifting-prosecutions/283-f787c79b-a70c-4cb6-b48a-fb22cafbc15d https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/multnomah-co... There were not protests state wide, they were in a single county, the one in which shoplifting isn't prosecuted as much. A couple miles away, with different DAs, you will get arrested and prosecuted for even very minor theft. > Unseating [Washington Co DA] Barton has been a priority for national progressive groups funding criminal justice reform in Oregon. > “Washington County is the most extreme county I’ve ever worked in, and that’s because of the tough on crime, war on drugs, lock 'em up and throw away the key fanaticism coming from the DA’s office,” Decker said. This is the person responsible for a 93% prosecution rate, being re-elected on the basis of "law and order" and relatively conservative viewpoints, backlash against the BLM protest responses that you talk about.

Retric 4y ago
Protests draw from a much wider area than just where they physically take place.
rhaway84773 4y ago
And yet the shoplifting problem is across those county lines and across state lines even. Whit contradicts the idea that the BLM protests are responsible.

psychphysic 4y ago

Invariably people will blame BLM there's a lot of latent disgruntlement.

nverno 4y ago
People love simple explanations. BLM obviously wasn't a causal factor, but general mayhem/disorder certainly facilitated things like shoplifting. There were a lot of people doing what sublime did back in '92 [1]. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ttchToDa7Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ttchToDa7Y

NotYourLawyer 4y ago

Policing, not prosecutions.

throw__away7391 4y ago

And what do you suppose would happen to the career of a researcher who published a study showing such a correlation?

acdha 4y ago
That depends on how rigorous their work was. If they did a good job, that would be a major career boost and would likely get them tenure. If they did a flawed but plausible sounding job, they’d likely get a book deal and could become a fixture on conservative media which would pay more but would limit the places they get tenure.