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This is 100% caused by the anti-Russian sanctions policy, yet not a single comment on this thread so far has even mentioned the sanctions and tried to engage in

by rsj_hn 4y ago

This is 100% caused by the anti-Russian sanctions policy, yet not a single comment on this thread so far has even mentioned the sanctions and tried to engage in a reasoned debate about whether the economic costs paid by Europe (and especially the energy insecure nations within the EU) were worth whatever moral good boy points the sanctions buy us. Some have suggested the sanctions help Ukraine, but haven't articulated a plausible mechanism by which this happens. I can see how sending weapons to Ukraine helps their war effort. I can see how sending money to Ukraine helps their war effort. But I fail to see how Europe de-industrializing and being plunged into a low standard of living helps Ukraine. Weakening Europe doesn't seem to be a pro-Ukraine policy position. And it's hard to think of another geopolitical tool that has a near 100% failure rate yet which is everyone's favorite tool. It's Alice in wonderland. Meanwhile, the Russians are laughing, they have record trade surpluses and budget surpluses (in the middle of prosecuting a war) and their economy is growing again. They are not finding it hard to find buyers for their fertilizer, wheat, oil, gas, coal, etc. These are things that everyone needs, not just Europe. China and India are both backing Russia and massively ramping up trade with them. A massive trade deal with Iran is being signed. OPEC is backing them and increasing trade. Latin America is increasing trade. Africa is increasing trade, as are the central asian republics and southeast Asia. All of this should put an end to the idea that Russia needs to trade with Europe or that Europe matters a whole lot to Russia's future. But back in Europe, which is forced to pay premiums for Russian LNG laundered through China and Russian Oil laundered through India and Malaysia, there is complete silence on the foolishness of sanctions, as article after article comes out about UK standard of living declines and German de-industrialization, with no one discussing why energy costs so much more in Europe than in the rest of the world. Instead, people are talking about Brexit, corporate greed, etc -- all the usual talking points, without a single mention of what is causing this dramatic economic decline. Truly a bizarre state of public discourse.

zx85wes 4y ago
I expect more people will vote far right or far left as a consequence. I'm a moderate, but the centre parties that created this mess won't get my vote again.
nathanaldensr 4y ago
You're noticing the depth of the indoctrination and just how little people actually think for themselves. Even thinking about an unpopular explanation is enough to cause intense cognitive dissonance.
drozycki 4y ago
> yet not a single comment on this thread so far There were only three top-level comments when you posted this. You could have opened this discussion calmly, but you came in running with resentment towards the community. Why did you choose to do that?
mensetmanusman 4y ago
The ~100,000 Russian families who just had their son thrown into a meat grinder aren’t laughing. War is hell. People have been warning for years that Russia would continue attacking neighboring countries every other year or so, since it has been going on for years. Can’t blame the world for finally starting to fight back. If the UK government had war gamed this scenario, they would have realized many preparatory actions that could have been taken to protect their economy.
- rsj_hn 4y ago
  I mean, if, by "fighting back", you mean destroying its own economy, then yes, The West is "fighting back". But not the world, as the vast majority of nations - 7 Billion people -- are not imposing any sanctions because they have more rational leadership than in the 1 Billion people that are destroying their own economy in the name of "fighting back". The main reason why the West is in rapid decline at the moment is because it is adopting policies based on their therapeutic value to the administrative class, rather than their effectiveness. That's a recipe for failure, and if you want to succeed rather than fail, then you need to choose your actions carefully and strategically rather than slamming your head against a granite wall because you think this means you are "fighting back".
  - kentrado 4y ago
    What would you do instead?
    - rsj_hn 4y ago
      I would not apply sanctions, and not do anything until the opportunity arose to do something that is effective. The idea that we must perform an ineffective and self-destructive measure just because it's the only one we can think of doing is not good statecraft.
  - mensetmanusman 4y ago
    The vast majority of the world has no economic power to impose meaningful sanctions. They are suffering already. The Ukraine situation is also a message to China, which makes it more worthwhile.
zpeti 4y ago
I just can't help but think there's some truth in the conspiracy theory I read on twitter from Kim Dotcom... this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia. Which is a massive win for... the US. Who definitely didn't do much to PREVENT this war at any point. I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional, but it definitely seems like an energy independent, moderately industrial, innovative USA is THE biggest beneficiary of this war on the relative scale.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  The war was and is caused by exactly one party, and that's Russia.
  - theironhammer 4y ago
    That's totally false. They've had a war in Ukraine since 2014.
- unity1001 4y ago
  > this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia Its amazing how that needs to be said and how that is a conspiracy theory even as US foreign policy think tanks have been advocating for that and even laid out many published, well thought out plans that are being implemented to the letter now. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html That's CIA's PR arm. It published that in 2019. Every single policy that it outlined is being carried out now. The propensity of the Angloamerican public to ignore what is inconvenient and see what they like is amazing. The Brexit process and the Ukraine war has been literal sociology cases in which one could finally understand how the nonexistent Iraqi WMDs and the ensuing war was sold to the Angloamerican public. > I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional Oh boy, it was 100% intentional. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/european-industry-starts-shutting-down-as-energy-prices-soar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/european-... The Eu is removing itself as a competitor to the US as of this very moment. The UK had destroyed itself before that with Brexit.
pydry 4y ago
It is amazing that in March the media was gleefully writing obituaries for the Russian economy. In the end when Putin told us our sanctions were stupid and would hurt ourselves more than Russia it turned out that the bluster was on our side.
phlipski 4y ago
Do you have any sources showing how the Russian economy is growing?
- timeon 4y ago
  Especially since there are sources [0] stating the opposite. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/e4f0cb9b-695c-4cc3-92c8-f8371de2ac38 https://www.ft.com/content/e4f0cb9b-695c-4cc3-92c8-f8371de2a...
- unity1001 4y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contract-29-2022-economy-minister-2022-09-06/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contr... https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/23/why-the-russian-economy-keeps-beating-expectations https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/23/w...
- rsj_hn 4y ago
  Well what happened was that sanctions created a sharp, fast, contraction -- maybe 5% or so. Russia measures GDP year over year, so there are still declines. But the standard way of measuring GDP is continuously -- e.g. quarter over quarter, annualized. So according to more realtime data, the contraction lasted a couple of months and they are now in expansion, but it will probably be around 2Q 2023 before the year over year data turns positive. A reference is here, using Goldman-Sachs faster frequency data. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/a...
timeon 4y ago
Is you username relevant here?

by rsj_hn 4y ago

zx85wes 4y ago

I expect more people will vote far right or far left as a consequence. I'm a moderate, but the centre parties that created this mess won't get my vote again.

nathanaldensr 4y ago

You're noticing the depth of the indoctrination and just how little people actually think for themselves. Even thinking about an unpopular explanation is enough to cause intense cognitive dissonance.

drozycki 4y ago

> yet not a single comment on this thread so far There were only three top-level comments when you posted this. You could have opened this discussion calmly, but you came in running with resentment towards the community. Why did you choose to do that?

mensetmanusman 4y ago

The ~100,000 Russian families who just had their son thrown into a meat grinder aren’t laughing. War is hell. People have been warning for years that Russia would continue attacking neighboring countries every other year or so, since it has been going on for years. Can’t blame the world for finally starting to fight back. If the UK government had war gamed this scenario, they would have realized many preparatory actions that could have been taken to protect their economy.

rsj_hn 4y ago
I mean, if, by "fighting back", you mean destroying its own economy, then yes, The West is "fighting back". But not the world, as the vast majority of nations - 7 Billion people -- are not imposing any sanctions because they have more rational leadership than in the 1 Billion people that are destroying their own economy in the name of "fighting back". The main reason why the West is in rapid decline at the moment is because it is adopting policies based on their therapeutic value to the administrative class, rather than their effectiveness. That's a recipe for failure, and if you want to succeed rather than fail, then you need to choose your actions carefully and strategically rather than slamming your head against a granite wall because you think this means you are "fighting back".
- kentrado 4y ago
  What would you do instead?
  - rsj_hn 4y ago
    I would not apply sanctions, and not do anything until the opportunity arose to do something that is effective. The idea that we must perform an ineffective and self-destructive measure just because it's the only one we can think of doing is not good statecraft.
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  The vast majority of the world has no economic power to impose meaningful sanctions. They are suffering already. The Ukraine situation is also a message to China, which makes it more worthwhile.

zpeti 4y ago

I just can't help but think there's some truth in the conspiracy theory I read on twitter from Kim Dotcom... this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia. Which is a massive win for... the US. Who definitely didn't do much to PREVENT this war at any point. I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional, but it definitely seems like an energy independent, moderately industrial, innovative USA is THE biggest beneficiary of this war on the relative scale.

rich_sasha 4y ago
The war was and is caused by exactly one party, and that's Russia.
- theironhammer 4y ago
  That's totally false. They've had a war in Ukraine since 2014.
unity1001 4y ago
> this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia Its amazing how that needs to be said and how that is a conspiracy theory even as US foreign policy think tanks have been advocating for that and even laid out many published, well thought out plans that are being implemented to the letter now. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html That's CIA's PR arm. It published that in 2019. Every single policy that it outlined is being carried out now. The propensity of the Angloamerican public to ignore what is inconvenient and see what they like is amazing. The Brexit process and the Ukraine war has been literal sociology cases in which one could finally understand how the nonexistent Iraqi WMDs and the ensuing war was sold to the Angloamerican public. > I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional Oh boy, it was 100% intentional. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/european-industry-starts-shutting-down-as-energy-prices-soar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/european-... The Eu is removing itself as a competitor to the US as of this very moment. The UK had destroyed itself before that with Brexit.

pydry 4y ago

It is amazing that in March the media was gleefully writing obituaries for the Russian economy. In the end when Putin told us our sanctions were stupid and would hurt ourselves more than Russia it turned out that the bluster was on our side.

phlipski 4y ago

Do you have any sources showing how the Russian economy is growing?

timeon 4y ago
Especially since there are sources [0] stating the opposite. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/e4f0cb9b-695c-4cc3-92c8-f8371de2ac38 https://www.ft.com/content/e4f0cb9b-695c-4cc3-92c8-f8371de2a...
unity1001 4y ago
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contract-29-2022-economy-minister-2022-09-06/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contr... https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/23/why-the-russian-economy-keeps-beating-expectations https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/23/w...
rsj_hn 4y ago
Well what happened was that sanctions created a sharp, fast, contraction -- maybe 5% or so. Russia measures GDP year over year, so there are still declines. But the standard way of measuring GDP is continuously -- e.g. quarter over quarter, annualized. So according to more realtime data, the contraction lasted a couple of months and they are now in expansion, but it will probably be around 2Q 2023 before the year over year data turns positive. A reference is here, using Goldman-Sachs faster frequency data. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/a...

timeon 4y ago

Is you username relevant here?