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My prediction on Metaculus from May 2021 was Aug 2027. Today I still think that they will need 4-5 more years. They seem to be going at about 2x improvement ra

My prediction on Metaculus from May 2021 was Aug 2027. Today I still think that they will need 4-5 more years. They seem to be going at about 2x improvement rate every 6 months. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11608/self-driving-taxis-available-to-metaculites/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11608/self-driving-taxis... My very rough guess is that they still need to make it some 10000x better. log2(10000) ∗ 0.5 year = 6.64 years The improvement needed also roughly matches Tesla internal expectations. According to CJ Moore, Tesla’s director of autopilot software: > The ratio of driver interaction would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver interaction to move into higher levels of automation. So, my current prediction is Aug 2027: - 5% before July 2023 - 25% before Aug 2025 - 50% before Aug 2027 - 75% before May 2030 - 95% before Apr 2034

redox99 4y ago
To be fair I don't think it will be robotaxi level in 2 or 3 years. I agree that robotaxi level is probably more like 2027. In 2 or 3 years by successful I mean that your average Tesla owner will use it in their every day, and will be able to handle their daily commute fully. But they'll still be behind the steering wheel.
- Isinlor 4y ago
  I'm really curious how it will work out for them. The conventional wisdom in self-driving space seems to be that humans are not reliable controllers of automated systems that need input once every day or so. I'm quite sure that there will be a lot of people overestimating this system if it tries to kill you only once per 1000 kilometers or once per 2 weeks. Right now it tries to kill you every other drive, so people really pay attention.