4 ms·
What a great way to remove everyone who gives a shit from the next generation.
by insanitybit 4y ago
What a great way to remove everyone who gives a shit from the next generation.
- ouid 4y ago
- rayiner 4y agoBut Republicans are the ones having kids. The GOP leads democrats 2:1 among people with kids at home. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_102022.pdf https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmout... (PDF page 10)
- svnt 4y agoSampling by telephone is a terrible methodology.
- rayiner 4y ago538 gives Monmouth University an “A” in its ratings of pollsters: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings. I think they know what they’re doing. (This October poll also nailed the actual 4 point spread in the congressional popular vote.)
- svnt 4y agoThat’s great, but you can get that without getting blue parents. I have a small sample of red parents but a large sample of blue parents in my circle and they don’t answer unknown numbers. I realize this is anecdotal.
- rayiner 4y agoMost people don’t answer unknown phone calls, but the ones who do answer the phone don’t skew more red or blue compared to the folks who don’t: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2017/05/15/what-low-response-rates-mean-for-telephone-surveys https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2017/05/15/what-low-resp... (“Telephone poll estimates for party affiliation, political ideology and religious affiliation continue to track well with estimates from high response rate surveys conducted in-person, like the General Social Survey.”) Pew is of course the gold standard in polling organizations.
- svnt 4y agoYour linked article discusses how telephone methodology has numerous significant flaws. > The finding that a low response rate leads to substantial bias on some topics (e.g., volunteering) but not others (e.g., partisanship or religious affiliation) underscores the importance of having high response rate in-person surveys, which make such knowledge possible. The above quote is saying “we can’t get accurate detailed demographics via phone” but using positively-oriented PR speak to do it. This is another way of admitting “in detail our demographics do not match the underlying population.” This could mean that their blue skews young, their red skews old, or their blue skews uneducated or vice versa, etc. The article is from 5.5 years ago when they were just transitioning from landline polling to cell phone polling. Call spam has increased significantly since then. Pew was founded in 1990 to do telephone research so of course they were going to defend it, but 2017 is when questions were just starting to be asked about it (in the context of a shift to mobile).
- 8note 4y agoThat doesn't necessarily mean that those kids will also be republican. Young people continuously move more to the left. After all, the jokes about no politics at Thanksgiving has a lot to do with much more conservative old people having different ideas than the youth
- vixen99 4y ago> Young people continuously move more to the left. And then to the right as they get older. A surprising number of British politicians on the right were Marxists in their youth.
- rayiner 4y agoSame for Gen-X in the US: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/20/cherie-westrich-alt-rock-gen-x-maga-00033769 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/20/cherie-wes... > Now, though, there is no confusion: Generation X is safely Republican. One model from 2014 measuring only white voters through the 2012 election shows those born in the mid-to-late 1960s being the most Republican-leaning of all, more so than the older Boomers and Silent generation.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- tptacek 4y agoPage 10 of this document doesn't say what you say it does.
- rayiner 4y agoPDF page 10 (page 2 of the cross tabs) asks “would you rather see republicans or democrats control the house.” 64% say republicans or lean Republican, versus 29% that say democrats or lean democrats. 6% say no lean or not sure.
- tptacek 4y agoAmong other issues, that number will change sharply depending on who's in the White House.
- idlewords 4y agoWoke kids are radicalizing their parents!