4 ms·

I have got a bet with a friend going that by the end of the decade we will have found life, 500usd heh I am feeling quite optimistic, the spectroscopy of jwst

I have got a bet with a friend going that by the end of the decade we will have found life, 500usd heh I am feeling quite optimistic, the spectroscopy of jwst has me quite pumped... If worst came to happen, I might still be able to eek out a win on my bet with ELT in Atacama... But I think that jwst will be enough!

lupire 4y ago
What telescope or spacecraft in existence is even capable of detecting life? Maybe a Mars rover could. JWST is only reporting chemicals inferred because of the way they change the spectrum of light in the atmosphere. That requiresassive concentration of one chemical.
suby 4y ago
Hopefully you spelled out the conditions and confidence required for life being found, because I can see it being debatable. We might detect compounds on other planets which to our knowledge can only come about through industrial civilization, but one can argue that there's some other process that is currently unknown to us which could give rise to these compounds. It's similar to the phosphine discovery on Venus, which is indicative of life but certainly debatable. Though in the phosphine case I think there's debate over whether or not they actually detected phosphine? Regardless, I too am excited about the possibility of detecting signs of intelligent life soon.
- ksaj 4y ago
  Likewise, if/when we find life, how would we recognize it? We have some understood rule sets for life here, yet we have life forms that don't 100% conform to any one of them. There is no guarantee life on another planet will even have the same DNA structure we have, let alone adhere to the model we've come to agree on for Earthen life. We only have LUCA to understand our own life forms, and zero idea what became and begat LUCA (Last Universal Common Ancestor). The word "Common" is important there, because we know there was a lot of life before LUCA. I took an Origins of Life course that really opened my eyes about how complicated things get when looking for life at different scales.
  - TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
    It would be astounding if alien life had terrestrial DNA. A lot of scifi movies get this hopelessly wrong. It's reasonable to expect some kind of DNA-analog: a system, not necessarily using familiar amino acids, that does a similar job. We live in a relatively cold and squishy regime. I suspect the range of possible DNA-analogs is much wider than we think it is. Many will exist in not-at-all-Earth-like conditions.
6177c40f 4y ago
I feel like spectroscopy would only give you suggestive evidence of life at best, like if significant quantities of oxygen were detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-like exoplanet in the habitable zone. I think your best bet for direct detection of life would come from Mars rover or maybe a mission to one of the Jovian moons (but AFAIK no probe will arrive at a Jovian moon in this decade). Not sure either will detect life in this decade, but I sincerely hope you win your bet!
- jarenmf 4y ago
  Maybe detecting a seasonal cycle for certain compounds will be a very strong evidence. Like the amount of atmospheric CO2 in air changes with seasons on earth.
  - nisegami 4y ago
    That also happens on Mars as the ice (CO2) at the poles melts and re-forms with the seasons.
    - MacsHeadroom 4y ago
      Methane similarly fluctuates on mars. Neither is strong evidence for life. But it remains possible, if unlikely, that some component of these fluctuations could have a microbial origin.
RosanaAnaDana 4y ago
I think thats a great bet. My suspicion is that we'll find life, or at least its precursors inside of the solar system in a similar time frame.
AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
I'd take that bet, because I am one of the universe's born pessimists, but I would be quite pleased to pay $500 to be proven wrong.
euroderf 4y ago
Does it count as a win if you only detect proxies ? I mean, consider the "tic-tac" UAPs. If they are robo-ships that have taken some tens or hundreds of years to get here and screw with the US Navy... do they count for your bet ?

lupire 4y ago

What telescope or spacecraft in existence is even capable of detecting life? Maybe a Mars rover could. JWST is only reporting chemicals inferred because of the way they change the spectrum of light in the atmosphere. That requiresassive concentration of one chemical.

suby 4y ago

Hopefully you spelled out the conditions and confidence required for life being found, because I can see it being debatable. We might detect compounds on other planets which to our knowledge can only come about through industrial civilization, but one can argue that there's some other process that is currently unknown to us which could give rise to these compounds. It's similar to the phosphine discovery on Venus, which is indicative of life but certainly debatable. Though in the phosphine case I think there's debate over whether or not they actually detected phosphine? Regardless, I too am excited about the possibility of detecting signs of intelligent life soon.

ksaj 4y ago
Likewise, if/when we find life, how would we recognize it? We have some understood rule sets for life here, yet we have life forms that don't 100% conform to any one of them. There is no guarantee life on another planet will even have the same DNA structure we have, let alone adhere to the model we've come to agree on for Earthen life. We only have LUCA to understand our own life forms, and zero idea what became and begat LUCA (Last Universal Common Ancestor). The word "Common" is important there, because we know there was a lot of life before LUCA. I took an Origins of Life course that really opened my eyes about how complicated things get when looking for life at different scales.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  It would be astounding if alien life had terrestrial DNA. A lot of scifi movies get this hopelessly wrong. It's reasonable to expect some kind of DNA-analog: a system, not necessarily using familiar amino acids, that does a similar job. We live in a relatively cold and squishy regime. I suspect the range of possible DNA-analogs is much wider than we think it is. Many will exist in not-at-all-Earth-like conditions.

6177c40f 4y ago

I feel like spectroscopy would only give you suggestive evidence of life at best, like if significant quantities of oxygen were detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-like exoplanet in the habitable zone. I think your best bet for direct detection of life would come from Mars rover or maybe a mission to one of the Jovian moons (but AFAIK no probe will arrive at a Jovian moon in this decade). Not sure either will detect life in this decade, but I sincerely hope you win your bet!

jarenmf 4y ago
Maybe detecting a seasonal cycle for certain compounds will be a very strong evidence. Like the amount of atmospheric CO2 in air changes with seasons on earth.
- nisegami 4y ago
  That also happens on Mars as the ice (CO2) at the poles melts and re-forms with the seasons.
  - MacsHeadroom 4y ago
    Methane similarly fluctuates on mars. Neither is strong evidence for life. But it remains possible, if unlikely, that some component of these fluctuations could have a microbial origin.

RosanaAnaDana 4y ago

I think thats a great bet. My suspicion is that we'll find life, or at least its precursors inside of the solar system in a similar time frame.

AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago

I'd take that bet, because I am one of the universe's born pessimists, but I would be quite pleased to pay $500 to be proven wrong.

euroderf 4y ago

Does it count as a win if you only detect proxies ? I mean, consider the "tic-tac" UAPs. If they are robo-ships that have taken some tens or hundreds of years to get here and screw with the US Navy... do they count for your bet ?