3 ms·
As sib notes, this is sort of trying to beat them at their own game. I think the better move is to reject the proposition that far future population estimates/E
by MaxfordAndSons 4y ago
As sib notes, this is sort of trying to beat them at their own game. I think the better move is to reject the proposition that far future population estimates/EV calculations of various projects are meaningful at all, on the grounds that the further out we project the more sensitive to errors or noise in the initial input said calculations are (aka the butterfly effect). We have ample evidence that we (humans) are great at short term predictions, okay at medium term predictions, and pretty shit at long term predictions. The longtermists presume to be an exception to this rule, but they should not be given so much credit. (Also I don't think our mathematical edifices should be considered as separate from us, as they are still artifacts/products of human reasoning, though I know this is a whole other can of worms).