Yes. 55:45. And normally that would be a reasonable answer - if you had a situation where you could ask the same question every year for an irrecoverable chang

Yes. 55:45. And normally that would be a reasonable answer - if you had a situation where you could ask the same question every year for an irrecoverable change that would be chaos. The question is how long the "term" should be - 5 years is the term for a national government so that would be too short, but 15 years, 30 years? However I certainly have sympathy with the idea of a new referendum 1) Leaving the EU was a material change, one which factored significantly into the 2014 debate 2) The SNP, who's entire reason to exist is for Scottish Independence, has won significant vote share (45% off a 68% turnout in 2019, 48% off 63% in 2022) 3) Devo Max hasn't worked out the way it was promised in 2014 Certainly if the SNP were to get a majority of votes in 2024 then there could be a mandate for another referendum based on the new reality. I suspect the SNP would not want to wait that long though because 2024 would also likely herald the departure of the tory government and potentially a swing back towards no (remain part of UK). The larger problem is that when a country is roughly evenly divided (50-50, 48-52, 45-55), there are no good answers. Unfortunately the UK as a whole has set a public precedent that a single poll of 52% off 72% is all you need to cause massive constitutional change to the point of removing peoples citizenship. When you have a situation where you have a sustained 2:1 or 3:1 majority in favour of a referendum for years at a time, like in Catalonia, then there's certainly no excuse not to have one, and if the result is a supermajority like Catalonia probably would be then it should be progressed. With Scotland though, opinion polls on independence are where they were in 2014. There was a "no" surge in 2017, a "yes" surge in 2020, but neither were sustained. It's quite plausible that Yes/Independence would win. It's also plausible that No/Remain would win. If No won 55:45 again, it wouldn't make the Yes side satisfied, and wouldn't be the end of discussion. If Yes won 55:45, then the No side wouldn't be satisfied, although the change would be done. It's quite plausible the margin would be even closer that those. It's also worth noting that the SNP have not managed to get a majority of votes in any election (in 2015 they got 49.97%, but since then their %age has dropped off)