Brexit became a possibility the second UKIP became a threat to the electoral chances of the Conservative party. It's very likely that Labour would have won in 2

Brexit became a possibility the second UKIP became a threat to the electoral chances of the Conservative party. It's very likely that Labour would have won in 2015 if Cameron didn't promise that referendum. Scottish Labour already has a committed anti-independence position, so they likely will let the SNP win over doing a similar promise. The only other possibility is a coalition government with Labour, but I don't see any government making the same mistake after 2016.