6 ms·

> Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been a

by pron 4y ago

> Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been as dominant since Java. > It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon. Not even close for either one of these. I was already programming in Pascal's heyday, and it was mostly used in education. It was never very popular in industry. Python is extremely popular, but many of its users are not professional programmers, and it isn't dominant in big server software at all. In the early 2000s, Java dominated servers, clients, and education. I don't think any language is even remotely approaching that today, but JS would be the closest (although still very far). Java today is the #1 most popular server-side language, certainly for big software, and by a big margin. According to the best data we have [1][2], it's about 1.5x-2x more popular than C#, maintaining the same gap those two languages have had for about 15 years. It's about 7-15x more popular than Go. So other JS and Python, all other languages's are doing worse than Java, with prospects that look significantly worse than Java's. No language is even coming close to threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby were. Node.JS looked like it could have for a while, but then it sank quickly; some thought Go might do it, but while it's certainly interesting and there's much we can learn from it, its growth has stalled. Comparing Java to itself 20 years ago is unfair, because it was an unusual time for programming. But when you compare it to the competition today, you see that Java is doing spectacularly. I would like to see it taught more in schools, though, where Python has overtaken it. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/

Retric 4y ago
The thing is even Java’s heyday was far more fragmented than Pascal’s. Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Java is practically non existent on client side web, system programming, desktop applications, iOS, scientific computing etc. So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak.
- pron 4y ago
  > Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Quite the opposite. If you look at the hiring labs data, iOS and Android combined make up less than 1/3 of the Java market alone. That's not surprising. There are lots of mobile apps, but they don't require that many hours of work. > So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak. But no other single language has better prospects, with only JS and Python in the same game. Java is not as super-dominant as it once was, but it is more dominant than almost any other language in existence. Everyone else is doing worse (or about as well in the case of Python and JS). Moreover, there currently aren't languages that are seriously threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby (and maybe JS with Node.JS) once were. The observation that the market is more fragmented than before with all languages commanding smaller portions than some did in the past is true. But if you're worried about Java's position, you need to be much more worried about, say, Go's.
  - Retric 4y ago
    The data I looked at suggests without Android Java falls behind JavaScript. Also, Python is starting to take over at CS schools which is usually a sign it’s going to be even more popular in the future. I suspect Python is going to take over from Java fairly soon, even if it might not reach Java’s mid 2000 dominance. That said, Java never reached the dominance of C, and C never reached the dominance of Fortran so I don’t think such arbitrary benchmarks mean much. In absolute numbers we have far more programmers so the next dominant language is likely to surpass past peaks by that metric.
    - pron 4y ago
      I don't know if Android matters that much (it's quite small), but regardless, as I've said several times, JS and Python are indeed the only languages with arguably better prospects than Java at the moment. Those who want Java to remain in that top tier should at least understand why, if we'd emulate anyone in any way, we'd try to emulate them rather than languages that are doing so much worse than Java. But it's also good to remember that both JS and Python have their own issues, that are by no means smaller than Java's, and neither of them currently threatens Java's dominance on the server, and no one else does either (although PHP and Ruby did in the past).

by pron 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

The thing is even Java’s heyday was far more fragmented than Pascal’s. Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Java is practically non existent on client side web, system programming, desktop applications, iOS, scientific computing etc. So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak.

pron 4y ago
> Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Quite the opposite. If you look at the hiring labs data, iOS and Android combined make up less than 1/3 of the Java market alone. That's not surprising. There are lots of mobile apps, but they don't require that many hours of work. > So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak. But no other single language has better prospects, with only JS and Python in the same game. Java is not as super-dominant as it once was, but it is more dominant than almost any other language in existence. Everyone else is doing worse (or about as well in the case of Python and JS). Moreover, there currently aren't languages that are seriously threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby (and maybe JS with Node.JS) once were. The observation that the market is more fragmented than before with all languages commanding smaller portions than some did in the past is true. But if you're worried about Java's position, you need to be much more worried about, say, Go's.
- Retric 4y ago
  The data I looked at suggests without Android Java falls behind JavaScript. Also, Python is starting to take over at CS schools which is usually a sign it’s going to be even more popular in the future. I suspect Python is going to take over from Java fairly soon, even if it might not reach Java’s mid 2000 dominance. That said, Java never reached the dominance of C, and C never reached the dominance of Fortran so I don’t think such arbitrary benchmarks mean much. In absolute numbers we have far more programmers so the next dominant language is likely to surpass past peaks by that metric.
  - pron 4y ago
    I don't know if Android matters that much (it's quite small), but regardless, as I've said several times, JS and Python are indeed the only languages with arguably better prospects than Java at the moment. Those who want Java to remain in that top tier should at least understand why, if we'd emulate anyone in any way, we'd try to emulate them rather than languages that are doing so much worse than Java. But it's also good to remember that both JS and Python have their own issues, that are by no means smaller than Java's, and neither of them currently threatens Java's dominance on the server, and no one else does either (although PHP and Ruby did in the past).