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A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in t

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructure, not so much. "The EMP robustness of the civilian infrastructure of the United States can be summarized far less equivocally: it is entirely non-existent. Our civilian telephony, electricity, broadband communications and electronics plants are all naked to our nuclear-armed enemies. They were neither designed, nor engineered, nor constructed nor are they operated so as to survive nuclear explosion effects, even at very great distances – for the 'invisible hand' of the marketplace provides no incentives for EMP robustness, nor penalties for failing to so prepare. Large electric power and telephony systems are known to fail under the effects of solar storms, which impose far smaller electromagnetic stresses than are known to arise from high-altitude nuclear explosions of even modest scales. Consequently, even a modest, single-explosion EMP attack on the U.S. might well devastate us as a modern, post-industrial nation." https://spp.fas.org/starwars/congress/1999_h/99-10-07wood.htm https://spp.fas.org/starwars/congress/1999_h/99-10-07wood.ht...

gjsman-1000 4y ago
But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel backup with enough fuel to last… “one to two weeks.” Meh… if I’m an EMP-empowered nation who hates the US, the grid looks tempting… sure, they can counterattack, but if you make investigating difficult and spread enough pandemonium… all you need to do is keep the government haphazardly distracted and confused for two weeks and you win…
- theteapot 4y ago
  Soldiers and their families would likely be some of the last to starve. Hardened.
- acidburnNSA 4y ago
  > As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. Well the nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers have power plants, and a few military bases used to be powered with nuclear (Camp Century, Ft. Greenly, McMurdo Station). But your point is reasonable. We'd be able to counterattack militarily, but it still would not be a happy day, nor a lasting integrity.
- sixstringtheory 4y ago
  > As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. FYI, Eielson AFB in Alaska has a coal plant and is working on an experimental nuclear microreactor installation, the first of its kind that the military plans to expand to other bases.
- areoform 4y ago
  > is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play, Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished— (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such other punishment as a court-martial may direct; and (2) if the offense is committed at any other time, by such punishment, other than death, as a court-martial may direct.
  - gjsman-1000 4y ago
    Right… but if a military base loses power, and the soldiers are starving, you may find that you quickly lose the ability to enforce the UCMJ effectively. And the moment you lose even a bit of control in such a situation, it will unravel potentially within hours. The UCMJ works great when you can shame a soldier, have a Justice system to rely on, can seize assets or pay, have superiors in other states, and so forth. When it’s pandemonium everywhere… not much to keep it enforced especially when it gets really bad. The system works when a solider has something to lose… but when soldiers feel they have nothing to lose, heck, risk starving and actually losing more by staying…
RetpolineDrama 4y ago
We want civilian EMP hardening not just for a nuclear war, but also for an unexpected solar event. We want to be able to handle whatever nature throws at us, our fellow apes combined. I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage, all EMP hardened to well above carrington event levels. Most of you have a house full of IoT crap dependent on AWS (region) to function.
- PragmaticPulp 4y ago
  > I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage How are you producing 120kw? That's the equivalent of around 300 solar panels (assuming 400W panels).
  - ltbarcly3 4y ago
    That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. If you have plenty of room and you can install them on the ground, and you are remote enough you can do it without permits or permits are easy to deal with (so really this means not California or New York) and wind isn't a huge concern (so not the Atlantic or Gulf coast) and your neighbors aren't constantly in your business (so not Texas) then this is easily done by someone who has a strong interest, a moderate income, and is a little handy. It is especially easy if you live somewhere so dry that wildfire is not a huge concern, and of course you need enough sunny days for it to be economical somewhat (although with this many panels you could live off this setup even in an Alaskan winter). My guess is they live in New Mexico or Nevada.
    - PragmaticPulp 4y ago
      > That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. I brought it up more for the space requirements. That’s a physically huge system. Panels are only a fraction of the overall cost. Unless you have a massive commercial building somewhere, 300 panels are going to take up a huge amount of ground-mount space. You also need a lot of inverters, wiring, etc. They also make claims about EMP hardening, which puts this into exotic build territory. Or maybe just a fantasy?
wildstrawberry 4y ago
The creator of the grid collapse video also made a video about the risk of EMPs, and argued that while the impacts could be severe, the 'hollywood-style' devastation that many predict on the internet (and in this thread) is not likely. https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuclear-emp-affect-the-power-grid https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuc...
lettergram 4y ago
If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food storage, fire starting kit, water collection, etc. for those in the country it’s really not much. A solar generator with a big battery could probably work for those in the country (with a well). For those in the suburbs you’ll need enough to hunker down for a few weeks (and guns). For the city, you need an escape plan and a place to go. A true grid collapse would be insane. Most people don’t know how to do any of the basics all our families did only a generation or two ago. How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it? I’ve spent the past couple years learning some of these skills and preparing the tools. To be clear grid collapse is inevitable on a long enough time horizon. Being prepared with food, water and shelter is a bare minimum.
- roflyear 4y ago
  Prepare sure. But make sure you stock up on salt ;)
- pc86 4y ago
  Where did you learn these skills? Hell I barely know how to change the oil in my car because I never had someone teach me and only recently got to a place in my life where I realized that sort of thing is important. I'm making headway, slowly but surely, but something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.
  - Falkon1313 4y ago
    >something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon. Funny to think that for our grandparents, that was just a typical Tuesday. They did pickling, canning, preserves, all that stuff. Some might've done smoking and curing. Kept a spare freezer stocked. After the Great Depression, they weren't going to be caught empty-handed again. Two generations later, we learned nothing from them and look at that as comparable to going to the moon. Wow. But yeah, I don't know how to do any of that either. To learn, talk to some older people, I guess?
baybal2 4y ago
EMP was mostly relevant for the time when there was no digital grid protection. Powerlines worked as giant antennas picking up the VLF component of the blast, driving voltages in megavolts for a brief while. All tricky analog devicery which was used to control the grid in seventies had no protection. Now, fast acting digital safeties will certainly be more robust.
therockspush 4y ago
Is the military fully hardened? Seems like they have some more hardening to do. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/22/air-force-wants-harden-b-2-bomber-withstand-emp-attack.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/22/air-force-wan...
zikduruqe 4y ago
I highly recommend reading One Second After by William R. Forstchen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After I used to teach and consult on various preparedness topics and people used to ask me what my favorite "survival manual" was. It is this book. TL;DR - 90% of the US population dies in 1 year.
- firstSpeaker 4y ago
  Yep, this is indeed a good series to read. When I read that it felt as close to a reality of the outcome as it can get.

gjsman-1000 4y ago

But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel backup with enough fuel to last… “one to two weeks.” Meh… if I’m an EMP-empowered nation who hates the US, the grid looks tempting… sure, they can counterattack, but if you make investigating difficult and spread enough pandemonium… all you need to do is keep the government haphazardly distracted and confused for two weeks and you win…

theteapot 4y ago
Soldiers and their families would likely be some of the last to starve. Hardened.
acidburnNSA 4y ago
> As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. Well the nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers have power plants, and a few military bases used to be powered with nuclear (Camp Century, Ft. Greenly, McMurdo Station). But your point is reasonable. We'd be able to counterattack militarily, but it still would not be a happy day, nor a lasting integrity.
sixstringtheory 4y ago
> As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. FYI, Eielson AFB in Alaska has a coal plant and is working on an experimental nuclear microreactor installation, the first of its kind that the military plans to expand to other bases.
areoform 4y ago
> is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play, Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished— (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such other punishment as a court-martial may direct; and (2) if the offense is committed at any other time, by such punishment, other than death, as a court-martial may direct.
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  Right… but if a military base loses power, and the soldiers are starving, you may find that you quickly lose the ability to enforce the UCMJ effectively. And the moment you lose even a bit of control in such a situation, it will unravel potentially within hours. The UCMJ works great when you can shame a soldier, have a Justice system to rely on, can seize assets or pay, have superiors in other states, and so forth. When it’s pandemonium everywhere… not much to keep it enforced especially when it gets really bad. The system works when a solider has something to lose… but when soldiers feel they have nothing to lose, heck, risk starving and actually losing more by staying…

RetpolineDrama 4y ago

We want civilian EMP hardening not just for a nuclear war, but also for an unexpected solar event. We want to be able to handle whatever nature throws at us, our fellow apes combined. I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage, all EMP hardened to well above carrington event levels. Most of you have a house full of IoT crap dependent on AWS (region) to function.

PragmaticPulp 4y ago
> I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage How are you producing 120kw? That's the equivalent of around 300 solar panels (assuming 400W panels).
- ltbarcly3 4y ago
  That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. If you have plenty of room and you can install them on the ground, and you are remote enough you can do it without permits or permits are easy to deal with (so really this means not California or New York) and wind isn't a huge concern (so not the Atlantic or Gulf coast) and your neighbors aren't constantly in your business (so not Texas) then this is easily done by someone who has a strong interest, a moderate income, and is a little handy. It is especially easy if you live somewhere so dry that wildfire is not a huge concern, and of course you need enough sunny days for it to be economical somewhat (although with this many panels you could live off this setup even in an Alaskan winter). My guess is they live in New Mexico or Nevada.
  - PragmaticPulp 4y ago
    > That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. I brought it up more for the space requirements. That’s a physically huge system. Panels are only a fraction of the overall cost. Unless you have a massive commercial building somewhere, 300 panels are going to take up a huge amount of ground-mount space. You also need a lot of inverters, wiring, etc. They also make claims about EMP hardening, which puts this into exotic build territory. Or maybe just a fantasy?

wildstrawberry 4y ago

The creator of the grid collapse video also made a video about the risk of EMPs, and argued that while the impacts could be severe, the 'hollywood-style' devastation that many predict on the internet (and in this thread) is not likely. https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuclear-emp-affect-the-power-grid https://practical.engineering/blog/2022/11/7/how-would-a-nuc...

lettergram 4y ago

If I recall correctly, in that situation we’d expect a 90% fatality in 1 year. https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... People thought I was nuts in 2021 when the lockdowns continued and I bought enough tools to survive such an event. I figured, people aren’t working, things gonna break. Lol For reference, some basics would go a long way — survival straw to filter water, 3 month emergency food storage, fire starting kit, water collection, etc. for those in the country it’s really not much. A solar generator with a big battery could probably work for those in the country (with a well). For those in the suburbs you’ll need enough to hunker down for a few weeks (and guns). For the city, you need an escape plan and a place to go. A true grid collapse would be insane. Most people don’t know how to do any of the basics all our families did only a generation or two ago. How many people can? How many know how to preserve meat for long periods without a freezer? How many know how to grow food and store it? I’ve spent the past couple years learning some of these skills and preparing the tools. To be clear grid collapse is inevitable on a long enough time horizon. Being prepared with food, water and shelter is a bare minimum.

roflyear 4y ago
Prepare sure. But make sure you stock up on salt ;)
pc86 4y ago
Where did you learn these skills? Hell I barely know how to change the oil in my car because I never had someone teach me and only recently got to a place in my life where I realized that sort of thing is important. I'm making headway, slowly but surely, but something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon.
- Falkon1313 4y ago
  >something like growing enough food for a family or acquiring meat, let alone preserving it, might as well be trying to get to the moon. Funny to think that for our grandparents, that was just a typical Tuesday. They did pickling, canning, preserves, all that stuff. Some might've done smoking and curing. Kept a spare freezer stocked. After the Great Depression, they weren't going to be caught empty-handed again. Two generations later, we learned nothing from them and look at that as comparable to going to the moon. Wow. But yeah, I don't know how to do any of that either. To learn, talk to some older people, I guess?

baybal2 4y ago

EMP was mostly relevant for the time when there was no digital grid protection. Powerlines worked as giant antennas picking up the VLF component of the blast, driving voltages in megavolts for a brief while. All tricky analog devicery which was used to control the grid in seventies had no protection. Now, fast acting digital safeties will certainly be more robust.

therockspush 4y ago

Is the military fully hardened? Seems like they have some more hardening to do. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/22/air-force-wants-harden-b-2-bomber-withstand-emp-attack.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/22/air-force-wan...

zikduruqe 4y ago

I highly recommend reading One Second After by William R. Forstchen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After I used to teach and consult on various preparedness topics and people used to ask me what my favorite "survival manual" was. It is this book. TL;DR - 90% of the US population dies in 1 year.

firstSpeaker 4y ago
Yep, this is indeed a good series to read. When I read that it felt as close to a reality of the outcome as it can get.