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Java's mid 2000 peak was anomalous, not just for Java, but for any language. I can't think of a language (maybe C in the 80s?) ever dominating so much of the ma

by pron 4y ago

Java's mid 2000 peak was anomalous, not just for Java, but for any language. I can't think of a language (maybe C in the 80s?) ever dominating so much of the market. The market is now much more fragmented. What you should be asking is, which language is doing better? JS and Python are the only candidates. No single language is currently posed to take its place (although PHP and Ruby came closest), and no language outside that group of three (with the possible exception of TypeScript) seems to be threatening any of them. So Java isn't as dominant as it was 20 years ago, but no one else is, either. And when you compare Java to current landscape, you see that it's in a very enviable position, and it's as safe a bet today as it ever was.

Retric 4y ago
Several languages had similar levels of dominance. Fortran was even more dominant in the late 1960’s, then C in the early 90’s followed by Java in the 2000’s all had clear dominance. It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon.
- pron 4y ago
  > Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been as dominant since Java. > It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon. Not even close for either one of these. I was already programming in Pascal's heyday, and it was mostly used in education. It was never very popular in industry. Python is extremely popular, but many of its users are not professional programmers, and it isn't dominant in big server software at all. In the early 2000s, Java dominated servers, clients, and education. I don't think any language is even remotely approaching that today, but JS would be the closest (although still very far). Java today is the #1 most popular server-side language, certainly for big software, and by a big margin. According to the best data we have [1][2], it's about 1.5x-2x more popular than C#, maintaining the same gap those two languages have had for about 15 years. It's about 7-15x more popular than Go. So other JS and Python, all other languages's are doing worse than Java, with prospects that look significantly worse than Java's. No language is even coming close to threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby were. Node.JS looked like it could have for a while, but then it sank quickly; some thought Go might do it, but while it's certainly interesting and there's much we can learn from it, its growth has stalled. Comparing Java to itself 20 years ago is unfair, because it was an unusual time for programming. But when you compare it to the competition today, you see that Java is doing spectacularly. I would like to see it taught more in schools, though, where Python has overtaken it. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/
  - Retric 4y ago
    The thing is even Java’s heyday was far more fragmented than Pascal’s. Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Java is practically non existent on client side web, system programming, desktop applications, iOS, scientific computing etc. So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak.
    - pron 4y ago
      > Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Quite the opposite. If you look at the hiring labs data, iOS and Android combined make up less than 1/3 of the Java market alone. That's not surprising. There are lots of mobile apps, but they don't require that many hours of work. > So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak. But no other single language has better prospects, with only JS and Python in the same game. Java is not as super-dominant as it once was, but it is more dominant than almost any other language in existence. Everyone else is doing worse (or about as well in the case of Python and JS). Moreover, there currently aren't languages that are seriously threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby (and maybe JS with Node.JS) once were. The observation that the market is more fragmented than before with all languages commanding smaller portions than some did in the past is true. But if you're worried about Java's position, you need to be much more worried about, say, Go's.
      - Retric 4y ago
        The data I looked at suggests without Android Java falls behind JavaScript. Also, Python is starting to take over at CS schools which is usually a sign it’s going to be even more popular in the future. I suspect Python is going to take over from Java fairly soon, even if it might not reach Java’s mid 2000 dominance. That said, Java never reached the dominance of C, and C never reached the dominance of Fortran so I don’t think such arbitrary benchmarks mean much. In absolute numbers we have far more programmers so the next dominant language is likely to surpass past peaks by that metric.

by pron 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

Several languages had similar levels of dominance. Fortran was even more dominant in the late 1960’s, then C in the early 90’s followed by Java in the 2000’s all had clear dominance. It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon.

pron 4y ago
> Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been as dominant since Java. > It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon. Not even close for either one of these. I was already programming in Pascal's heyday, and it was mostly used in education. It was never very popular in industry. Python is extremely popular, but many of its users are not professional programmers, and it isn't dominant in big server software at all. In the early 2000s, Java dominated servers, clients, and education. I don't think any language is even remotely approaching that today, but JS would be the closest (although still very far). Java today is the #1 most popular server-side language, certainly for big software, and by a big margin. According to the best data we have [1][2], it's about 1.5x-2x more popular than C#, maintaining the same gap those two languages have had for about 15 years. It's about 7-15x more popular than Go. So other JS and Python, all other languages's are doing worse than Java, with prospects that look significantly worse than Java's. No language is even coming close to threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby were. Node.JS looked like it could have for a while, but then it sank quickly; some thought Go might do it, but while it's certainly interesting and there's much we can learn from it, its growth has stalled. Comparing Java to itself 20 years ago is unfair, because it was an unusual time for programming. But when you compare it to the competition today, you see that Java is doing spectacularly. I would like to see it taught more in schools, though, where Python has overtaken it. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/
- Retric 4y ago
  The thing is even Java’s heyday was far more fragmented than Pascal’s. Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Java is practically non existent on client side web, system programming, desktop applications, iOS, scientific computing etc. So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak.
  - pron 4y ago
    > Despite what HN suggest sever side programming isn’t that big. Android is currently a major component of it’s position, if you don’t include Android then Java isn’t the most popular language. Quite the opposite. If you look at the hiring labs data, iOS and Android combined make up less than 1/3 of the Java market alone. That's not surprising. There are lots of mobile apps, but they don't require that many hours of work. > So only something like 20% of programmers are using Java as their primary language and it might have topped 35% at it’s peak. But no other single language has better prospects, with only JS and Python in the same game. Java is not as super-dominant as it once was, but it is more dominant than almost any other language in existence. Everyone else is doing worse (or about as well in the case of Python and JS). Moreover, there currently aren't languages that are seriously threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby (and maybe JS with Node.JS) once were. The observation that the market is more fragmented than before with all languages commanding smaller portions than some did in the past is true. But if you're worried about Java's position, you need to be much more worried about, say, Go's.
    - Retric 4y ago
      The data I looked at suggests without Android Java falls behind JavaScript. Also, Python is starting to take over at CS schools which is usually a sign it’s going to be even more popular in the future. I suspect Python is going to take over from Java fairly soon, even if it might not reach Java’s mid 2000 dominance. That said, Java never reached the dominance of C, and C never reached the dominance of Fortran so I don’t think such arbitrary benchmarks mean much. In absolute numbers we have far more programmers so the next dominant language is likely to surpass past peaks by that metric.