3 ms·

And you could probably say the same for JavaScript and Python, that, together with Java, make up the current topmost tier of super-popular programming languages

by pron 4y ago

And you could probably say the same for JavaScript and Python, that, together with Java, make up the current topmost tier of super-popular programming languages, which is why I think your conclusion is wrong. These three languages are often first languages (or, at least, first professional languages), which is a necessary (though insufficient) condition for being super-popular. All of these languages more than make up for the loss of programmers who prefer richer languages with the programmers for whom it's a first (professional) language. Different programmers indeed prefer different languages, but that doesn't mean that the preferences are easily distributed. My rough personal estimate is a 90-10 split, where the 10% prefer more feature-rich, faster-moving languages. That's a very big minority, but Java addresses it by offering the Java language for the 90%, and supporting other languages on the Java platform for the 10%. You can also see that while the market is becoming more fragmented, no language is currently threatening those top three (although TypeScript could threaten JS, I think), and no language is doing better than them. I.e. other strategies seem to be doing worse. So knowing that for every X programmers you win you lose Y no matter what you do means that we try to carefully balance the evolution. I can tell you that we are more worried about teachers telling us that Java is getting too many features too quickly, and that it's harder to teach than Python (hence "Paving the Onramp [1] and other planned features) than the programmers asking for more features quicker. The former represent a much larger group than the latter. Also, moving more toward the latter group is both easier and less reversible, so it has to be done with great care. [1]: https://openjdk.org/projects/amber/design-notes/on-ramp https://openjdk.org/projects/amber/design-notes/on-ramp

Retric 4y ago
This isn’t just me, the language’s popularity has been steadily falling from a peak in the mid 2000’s. You can quibble about specific numbers, but the overall trend seems to be languages peak and then slowly fade, and Java is following Fortran, Pascal, and C as languages that simply aren’t keeping up with the shifting demands of the modern workforce. Ex: https://youtu.be/UNSoPa-XQN0 https://youtu.be/UNSoPa-XQN0
- pron 4y ago
  Java's mid 2000 peak was anomalous, not just for Java, but for any language. I can't think of a language (maybe C in the 80s?) ever dominating so much of the market. The market is now much more fragmented. What you should be asking is, which language is doing better? JS and Python are the only candidates. No single language is currently posed to take its place (although PHP and Ruby came closest), and no language outside that group of three (with the possible exception of TypeScript) seems to be threatening any of them. So Java isn't as dominant as it was 20 years ago, but no one else is, either. And when you compare Java to current landscape, you see that it's in a very enviable position, and it's as safe a bet today as it ever was.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Several languages had similar levels of dominance. Fortran was even more dominant in the late 1960’s, then C in the early 90’s followed by Java in the 2000’s all had clear dominance. It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon.
    - pron 4y ago
      > Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been as dominant since Java. > It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon. Not even close for either one of these. I was already programming in Pascal's heyday, and it was mostly used in education. It was never very popular in industry. Python is extremely popular, but many of its users are not professional programmers, and it isn't dominant in big server software at all. In the early 2000s, Java dominated servers, clients, and education. I don't think any language is even remotely approaching that today, but JS would be the closest (although still very far). Java today is the #1 most popular server-side language, certainly for big software, and by a big margin. According to the best data we have [1][2], it's about 1.5x-2x more popular than C#, maintaining the same gap those two languages have had for about 15 years. It's about 7-15x more popular than Go. So other JS and Python, all other languages's are doing worse than Java, with prospects that look significantly worse than Java's. No language is even coming close to threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby were. Node.JS looked like it could have for a while, but then it sank quickly; some thought Go might do it, but while it's certainly interesting and there's much we can learn from it, its growth has stalled. Comparing Java to itself 20 years ago is unfair, because it was an unusual time for programming. But when you compare it to the competition today, you see that Java is doing spectacularly. I would like to see it taught more in schools, though, where Python has overtaken it. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/

by pron 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

This isn’t just me, the language’s popularity has been steadily falling from a peak in the mid 2000’s. You can quibble about specific numbers, but the overall trend seems to be languages peak and then slowly fade, and Java is following Fortran, Pascal, and C as languages that simply aren’t keeping up with the shifting demands of the modern workforce. Ex: https://youtu.be/UNSoPa-XQN0 https://youtu.be/UNSoPa-XQN0

pron 4y ago
Java's mid 2000 peak was anomalous, not just for Java, but for any language. I can't think of a language (maybe C in the 80s?) ever dominating so much of the market. The market is now much more fragmented. What you should be asking is, which language is doing better? JS and Python are the only candidates. No single language is currently posed to take its place (although PHP and Ruby came closest), and no language outside that group of three (with the possible exception of TypeScript) seems to be threatening any of them. So Java isn't as dominant as it was 20 years ago, but no one else is, either. And when you compare Java to current landscape, you see that it's in a very enviable position, and it's as safe a bet today as it ever was.
- Retric 4y ago
  Several languages had similar levels of dominance. Fortran was even more dominant in the late 1960’s, then C in the early 90’s followed by Java in the 2000’s all had clear dominance. It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon.
  - pron 4y ago
    > Several languages had similar levels of dominance. I don't think Fortran was ever quite that dominant, but we can certainly agree that no language has been as dominant since Java. > It’s possible though harder to verify if Pascal reached that level and we might see Python hitting it soon. Not even close for either one of these. I was already programming in Pascal's heyday, and it was mostly used in education. It was never very popular in industry. Python is extremely popular, but many of its users are not professional programmers, and it isn't dominant in big server software at all. In the early 2000s, Java dominated servers, clients, and education. I don't think any language is even remotely approaching that today, but JS would be the closest (although still very far). Java today is the #1 most popular server-side language, certainly for big software, and by a big margin. According to the best data we have [1][2], it's about 1.5x-2x more popular than C#, maintaining the same gap those two languages have had for about 15 years. It's about 7-15x more popular than Go. So other JS and Python, all other languages's are doing worse than Java, with prospects that look significantly worse than Java's. No language is even coming close to threatening Java's position as PHP and Ruby were. Node.JS looked like it could have for a while, but then it sank quickly; some thought Go might do it, but while it's certainly interesting and there's much we can learn from it, its growth has stalled. Comparing Java to itself 20 years ago is unfair, because it was an unusual time for programming. But when you compare it to the competition today, you see that Java is doing spectacularly. I would like to see it taught more in schools, though, where Python has overtaken it. [1]: https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-languages-in-2022/ https://www.devjobsscanner.com/blog/top-8-most-demanded-lang... [2]: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/11/19/todays-top-tech-skills/