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Their bet on VR/AR (“metaverse”) hasn’t been widely rejected, it’s just growing very slowly. They’re hoping it grows much faster, but there’s very hard technolo

Their bet on VR/AR (“metaverse”) hasn’t been widely rejected, it’s just growing very slowly. They’re hoping it grows much faster, but there’s very hard technology to figure out before they can unlock the value. Like you said, their other businesses are slowly receding so they’re racing against time. But AR/VR is the only bet they have that’s large enough to keep growth going. The world is still waiting to see what happens, and in the mean time they’re continuing to pump out billions of dollars in profit.

Eisenstein 4y ago
It isn't really the technology that they need. It would definitely be great to have a lighter headset, to have enough computing power to overlay 3D structures onto the existing world, to be all to do full body tracking with an inside-out system, etc, but those things are actually limited to things that you can't really fast track (chip production improvements are moore's law and battery tech is pretty much at a roadblock). What they need is a 'killer app'. The PC would never have gotten on to a desktop if it weren't for spreadsheets and word processing, and the internet wouldn't have become ubiquitous if it weren't for the web. The metaverse currently has nothing to motivate normal people to want to strap on a headset to use it for more than a few minutes at a time to play a game or maybe watch a movie, currently, so Meta is struggling to find a compelling consumer appeal. Most people who get a Quest end up sticking in their closet after playing with it for a few weeks.
- erikpukinskis 4y ago
  None of that is necessary. They just need one thing: Eye Tracking, for one feature: Eye Contact. With that, they can be to the early 21st century office what Microsoft was to the late 20th century office. The problem is Facebook is a consumer company, and VR will be an office tech (at first) and I’m not sure Facebook has the culture to do what Microsoft did. They need to adapt fast. But technologically, they’re already there. The Meta Quest pro has everything it needs to be what Dell was to business in the 90s and 2000s. At this point Software and Sales is the game they stand to lose. If I were Slack I would be gunning for the same prize. But I haven’t heard anything about VR at Slack, so it seems like they’re going to lose.
  - Eisenstein 4y ago
    When I tell people that the Quest Pro's new hot feature is 'eye-tracking', then follow up with 'so now Meta knows what you look at and for how long', they are creeped out.
  - infotogivenm 4y ago
    Can you expand on this claim a little? Why does eye contact make a huge difference in a VR office suite software?
    - hypertele-Xii 4y ago
      The sole reason our eyes evolved whites was to see where other people are looking. It's a valuable and deeply-ingrained instinct.

Eisenstein 4y ago

It isn't really the technology that they need. It would definitely be great to have a lighter headset, to have enough computing power to overlay 3D structures onto the existing world, to be all to do full body tracking with an inside-out system, etc, but those things are actually limited to things that you can't really fast track (chip production improvements are moore's law and battery tech is pretty much at a roadblock). What they need is a 'killer app'. The PC would never have gotten on to a desktop if it weren't for spreadsheets and word processing, and the internet wouldn't have become ubiquitous if it weren't for the web. The metaverse currently has nothing to motivate normal people to want to strap on a headset to use it for more than a few minutes at a time to play a game or maybe watch a movie, currently, so Meta is struggling to find a compelling consumer appeal. Most people who get a Quest end up sticking in their closet after playing with it for a few weeks.

erikpukinskis 4y ago
None of that is necessary. They just need one thing: Eye Tracking, for one feature: Eye Contact. With that, they can be to the early 21st century office what Microsoft was to the late 20th century office. The problem is Facebook is a consumer company, and VR will be an office tech (at first) and I’m not sure Facebook has the culture to do what Microsoft did. They need to adapt fast. But technologically, they’re already there. The Meta Quest pro has everything it needs to be what Dell was to business in the 90s and 2000s. At this point Software and Sales is the game they stand to lose. If I were Slack I would be gunning for the same prize. But I haven’t heard anything about VR at Slack, so it seems like they’re going to lose.
- Eisenstein 4y ago
  When I tell people that the Quest Pro's new hot feature is 'eye-tracking', then follow up with 'so now Meta knows what you look at and for how long', they are creeped out.
- infotogivenm 4y ago
  Can you expand on this claim a little? Why does eye contact make a huge difference in a VR office suite software?
  - hypertele-Xii 4y ago
    The sole reason our eyes evolved whites was to see where other people are looking. It's a valuable and deeply-ingrained instinct.