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I 100% believe in market timing. I usually do extremely well during market crashes, and average during market rises. I missed the dotcom crash because I didn't
by purpleblue 4y ago
I 100% believe in market timing. I usually do extremely well during market crashes, and average during market rises.
I missed the dotcom crash because I didn't want to invest at all, but caught all of the 2008-2009 crash and went long on the bottom in March 2009, but was mostly average after the crash. I caught the entire pandemic drop in March 2020 and also got long at the bottom, but again was only average for the last 2 years. I then went extremely short November 2021 and have been short ever since, and have doubled my trading account. I'm still very short, but by rolling over my options and extending the strike price, I've pocketed most of my gains so if the market rips higher from here I'll only lose about 10% of my gains, but I'm also long META and other stocks, so I'll participate on the long side as well.
- lotsofpulp 4y agoHave you considered opening up your own hedge fund?
- purpleblue 4y agoNo, I'm not that good. I enjoy trading very much for myself and trading with other people's money would be too stressful.
- medvezhenok 4y agoMarket timing both works and is bad advice for the average person by definition (it takes being way better than average to be a successful market timer). Also you're competing with people who have access to insider information (even though they're "not supposed to"), so it's kind of tilted against the average person; though not impossible to still come out ahead. It's similar to poker. For the average person playing poker is a -EV game because of rake, but if you're skilled, poker can be very much +EV.
- sumedh 4y agoHave you compared your performance with the index?
- V__ 4y agoHow do you reason whether a crash is near or has bottomed out?