5 ms·

I think so. I've started buying shares every month in Cloudflare and Shopify - use their products and think they have fantastic momentum and great teams working

I think so. I've started buying shares every month in Cloudflare and Shopify - use their products and think they have fantastic momentum and great teams working on industry-defining tech. Disclaimer - I don't work/have never worked at either

stcredzero 4y ago
This is the way to do it, IMO. - Do a proper valuation of the company - If the price is right, start Dollar Cost Averaging into a position during a downturn No one can perfectly time the market. However, we certainly can approximate the proper value of solid companies, and we generally can tell when sentiments and market conditions are biasing low. (Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Do your own research, etc.)
- maest 4y ago
  > If the price is right That is doing a lot of the work. In particular, you need to be able to predict what interest rates will be doing in the future.
- luckylion 4y ago
  The problem is the "proper valuation" though, isn't it? Especially for something like CloudFlare. I'm a customer, I understand their product and what they're offering, I like their products, I think it works pretty well, I see them having a lots of sites on their CDN, I think they're providing value. I don't have the faintest idea what their suites of products are worth to the average website owner, and how many of those average users they have, or how much it would be worth to large enterprises etc. And even if I did, I wouldn't have any idea of what that should translate to in share prices. So in the end all I can reasonably do is very basic stuff like looking at revenue vs share price, and maybe at how competitors are valued. Are you going to have any success with that kind of analysis that's barely scratching the surface?
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  Literally all of finance boils down to trying to correctly price assets and financial instruments in regards to future performance. Anyone who can consistently and correctly price any asset at any point in the future will be incredibly wealthy. The best we can do mathematically is to say that at small time scales, right now, things are priced what the market believes they should be price and that's as "correct" as possible. Everything else is speculation.
kmlx 4y ago
considering how many companies are preparing for a recession, and since i’m reading recession next year in a lot of places, i think this is a bit premature. but time will tell.
- swyx 4y ago
  the thing about buying the lows is that expectations have to be low for that to happen :) by the time its obvious the stocks will have already recovered. the difficult question to ask is - how much worse could things get relative to current expectation.
  - tebbers 4y ago
    Exactly this. Everyone else is happy to buy when things are booming and it's baked into the price.
keepquestioning 4y ago
You are going to get rekt
TylerE 4y ago
I am skeptical of Shopify. They have a major scam problem they seem unable to deal with. (Not saying a large portion of shopify sites are scams, but a very very very large percentage of scam sites are built on shopify).

stcredzero 4y ago

This is the way to do it, IMO. - Do a proper valuation of the company - If the price is right, start Dollar Cost Averaging into a position during a downturn No one can perfectly time the market. However, we certainly can approximate the proper value of solid companies, and we generally can tell when sentiments and market conditions are biasing low. (Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Do your own research, etc.)

maest 4y ago
> If the price is right That is doing a lot of the work. In particular, you need to be able to predict what interest rates will be doing in the future.
luckylion 4y ago
The problem is the "proper valuation" though, isn't it? Especially for something like CloudFlare. I'm a customer, I understand their product and what they're offering, I like their products, I think it works pretty well, I see them having a lots of sites on their CDN, I think they're providing value. I don't have the faintest idea what their suites of products are worth to the average website owner, and how many of those average users they have, or how much it would be worth to large enterprises etc. And even if I did, I wouldn't have any idea of what that should translate to in share prices. So in the end all I can reasonably do is very basic stuff like looking at revenue vs share price, and maybe at how competitors are valued. Are you going to have any success with that kind of analysis that's barely scratching the surface?
time_to_smile 4y ago
Literally all of finance boils down to trying to correctly price assets and financial instruments in regards to future performance. Anyone who can consistently and correctly price any asset at any point in the future will be incredibly wealthy. The best we can do mathematically is to say that at small time scales, right now, things are priced what the market believes they should be price and that's as "correct" as possible. Everything else is speculation.

kmlx 4y ago

considering how many companies are preparing for a recession, and since i’m reading recession next year in a lot of places, i think this is a bit premature. but time will tell.

swyx 4y ago
the thing about buying the lows is that expectations have to be low for that to happen :) by the time its obvious the stocks will have already recovered. the difficult question to ask is - how much worse could things get relative to current expectation.
- tebbers 4y ago
  Exactly this. Everyone else is happy to buy when things are booming and it's baked into the price.

keepquestioning 4y ago

You are going to get rekt

TylerE 4y ago

I am skeptical of Shopify. They have a major scam problem they seem unable to deal with. (Not saying a large portion of shopify sites are scams, but a very very very large percentage of scam sites are built on shopify).