5 ms·

I don't think the fact he's walking around in necessarily evidence of corruption, so much as it's evidence of governments (and there are multiple jurisdictions

I don't think the fact he's walking around in necessarily evidence of corruption, so much as it's evidence of governments (and there are multiple jurisdictions here) being slow to act. As to the idea that connections will always get you out of trouble, again I don't think that's universally true. Elizabeth Holmes is extremely well connected as was Bernie Madoff but that didn't stop either of them being prosecuted and convicted. My guess here is that once the dust settles on exactly what's happened with FTX (which is still unclear in a lot of ways) SBF will be charged.

pjc50 4y ago
I wonder what the time-to-arrest was on Madoff from his scheme collapsing? Have we just become too accustomed to operating on Internet time when these things always take months?
- raesene9 4y ago
  I can't remember the timeline too well with Madoff but looking at this timeline of Theranos https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fall/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fa... it was years between the start of problems and her actual arrest.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > I wonder what the time-to-arrest was on Madoff from his scheme collapsing? Have we just become too accustomed to operating on Internet time when these things always take months? Ken Lay was Dec 2001 -> July 2004 Madoff was very quick from the collapse to arrest (December 2008 for both), but that’s largely because he confessed to his sons and told them he planned to surrender to authorities, who talked to the FBI, who visited Madoff who then confessed that it was “all one big lie” to them.
  - notch656a 4y ago
    If only SBF had confessed on Twitter about stealing customer deposits...
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > If only SBF had confessed on Twitter about stealing customer deposits… The reason it was fast with Madoff wasn’t the confession, per se, it was that it came with the telegraphed (and actual) intent to surrender to the authorities. Though I suspect SBF’s inability to control his public statements is an indicator that it is likely to be quicker to line up things against him than it was against Lay, its not going to be as easy as with someone who was burned out and done fighting like Madoff.
      - notch656a 4y ago
        I mean the authorities had no trouble getting a federal search warrant against me merely because a LEO fabricated a story that a dog alerted on me. They woke up a federal judge, in the middle of the night, within several hours and even convinced the judge to waive normal hours for serving the warrant. Yet they can't quickly get one for SBF? Definitely some people are more equal than others. And I realize he is in the Bahamas. ---------- re: premise below There is plenty of non-fabricated probable cause for SBF, pretty much all of below is a false premise.
        dragonwriter 4y ago
        > I mean the authorities had no trouble getting a federal search warrant against me merely because a LEO fabricated a story that a dog alerted on me. They woke up a federal judge, in the middle of the night, within several hours. Yet they can’t quickly get one for SBF? A search warrant needs to specify a particular place to search and particular things to search for. So, even if there was an LEO that was going to fabricate evidence to support such a warrant…what would they fabricate evidence to point toward that would actually be useful? Also, while it may not have mattered to the LEO fabricating evidence against you–assuming your story is accurate–it may be that the particular folks involved in the SBF investigations are less willing to commit crimes of their own to advance it, if not for ethical reasons, potentially because the attention to the case and the resources likely to be deployed by the defense make it rather more likely than in your case that either (1) such a crime would result in criminal consequences for the government agent committing it, or (2) manufacturing evidence would compromise any prosecution of SBF.

pjc50 4y ago

I wonder what the time-to-arrest was on Madoff from his scheme collapsing? Have we just become too accustomed to operating on Internet time when these things always take months?

raesene9 4y ago
I can't remember the timeline too well with Madoff but looking at this timeline of Theranos https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fall/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fa... it was years between the start of problems and her actual arrest.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> I wonder what the time-to-arrest was on Madoff from his scheme collapsing? Have we just become too accustomed to operating on Internet time when these things always take months? Ken Lay was Dec 2001 -> July 2004 Madoff was very quick from the collapse to arrest (December 2008 for both), but that’s largely because he confessed to his sons and told them he planned to surrender to authorities, who talked to the FBI, who visited Madoff who then confessed that it was “all one big lie” to them.
- notch656a 4y ago
  If only SBF had confessed on Twitter about stealing customer deposits...
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > If only SBF had confessed on Twitter about stealing customer deposits… The reason it was fast with Madoff wasn’t the confession, per se, it was that it came with the telegraphed (and actual) intent to surrender to the authorities. Though I suspect SBF’s inability to control his public statements is an indicator that it is likely to be quicker to line up things against him than it was against Lay, its not going to be as easy as with someone who was burned out and done fighting like Madoff.
    - notch656a 4y ago
      I mean the authorities had no trouble getting a federal search warrant against me merely because a LEO fabricated a story that a dog alerted on me. They woke up a federal judge, in the middle of the night, within several hours and even convinced the judge to waive normal hours for serving the warrant. Yet they can't quickly get one for SBF? Definitely some people are more equal than others. And I realize he is in the Bahamas. ---------- re: premise below There is plenty of non-fabricated probable cause for SBF, pretty much all of below is a false premise.
      - dragonwriter 4y ago
        > I mean the authorities had no trouble getting a federal search warrant against me merely because a LEO fabricated a story that a dog alerted on me. They woke up a federal judge, in the middle of the night, within several hours. Yet they can’t quickly get one for SBF? A search warrant needs to specify a particular place to search and particular things to search for. So, even if there was an LEO that was going to fabricate evidence to support such a warrant…what would they fabricate evidence to point toward that would actually be useful? Also, while it may not have mattered to the LEO fabricating evidence against you–assuming your story is accurate–it may be that the particular folks involved in the SBF investigations are less willing to commit crimes of their own to advance it, if not for ethical reasons, potentially because the attention to the case and the resources likely to be deployed by the defense make it rather more likely than in your case that either (1) such a crime would result in criminal consequences for the government agent committing it, or (2) manufacturing evidence would compromise any prosecution of SBF.