4 ms·

You could say that if he was new to the party. But he did change the world with his companies already, didn't he?

by mirekrusin 4y ago

ldng 4y ago
Really? Has he ?
- bobsmooth 4y ago
  Before Tesla, EVs were a joke. Before SpaceX, satellite internet was a joke.
  - qwytw 4y ago
    And that makes him infallible? If anyone else but Musk bought Twitter and started doing what he did they'd be the laughing stock of the financial world. His reputation is the only thing keeping him afloat (in this specific case, he might still do great with SpaceX and Tesla but so what? People like Jobs, Buffet, Gates etc. also made significant blunders at some points in their career)
    - mirekrusin 4y ago
      It makes him more credible than random dudes on internet.
      - qwytw 4y ago
        Or you know... you could try looking at facts and data an try to form your own opinion.
        mirekrusin 4y ago
        I think Musk did better homework on it than you.
        qwytw 4y ago
        Or maybe Musk has different goals. Anyway there is no need for you to be (I hope)purposefully obtuse...
mcv 4y ago
Yes, and that's why he's getting worshipped, and that's what's making him go off the rails here.
qwytw 4y ago
Any optimization he might do is unlikely to offset the cost of servicing the debt he offloaded to Twitter's balance sheet after the acquisition. So at 5% interest the yearly cost is 650 million, even at some obscene and unrealistic payroll per employee (including not only developers), like let's say 400k he'd have to fire over 1600 people just to balance this out. There is no way to spin this positively. Also due to no more RSUs cash comp for remaining employee would need to increase. Add to that the the loss in advertisement revenue do to obvious reasons. Taking these facts into account could you please explain how is Musk NOT a liability to Twitter? He basically spent 31 billion (plus 13 billion he offload to Twitter) just to buy the trademark and the user base (and some proportion of advertisers...). From a financial standpoint that's an objectively terrible deal. Musk might have other goals and that's great but in no way this is comparable to Tesla or SpaceX. >But he did change the world with his companies already, didn't he? History is full of examples of extraordinary successful people who get blinded by their own success and start thinking that they are infallible. This ussually results which in pretty unhinged behavior when they get older. Musk does not seem like the most grounded person ever so he's likely at a much higher risk of this than almost every tech billionaire I can think of.
- mirekrusin 4y ago
  also: History is full of examples of extraordinary successful people [period]. Maybe somebody with Musk track record can be seen as more credible than some random "qwytw" on the internet? I mean incentives are on his side, aren't they? For one his famous. It's his toy, so he won't let it disappear into irrelevance without fighting for it. There are not many people currently alive with comparable track record, being recognized world wide, with deep pockets like him. What if in few years time from now people will be stepping on each other writing posts and books on how they really knew all of that from the beginning, that obviously he was right etc. - doesn't sound unreal or alien to me, quite opposite actually. To be honest, I don't even think anything extraordinary needs to happen for all of it to work out just fine. For all people saying technically it's not just rendering short messages - well it is just that at the end. Look at stackoverflow - most people don't realize it's just single monolith application running on 6 servers - all of it. There are still thousands of people employed there, which feels like too many if anything.

You could say that if he was new to the party. But he did change the world with his companies already, didn't he?

ldng 4y ago

Really? Has he ?

bobsmooth 4y ago
Before Tesla, EVs were a joke. Before SpaceX, satellite internet was a joke.
- qwytw 4y ago
  And that makes him infallible? If anyone else but Musk bought Twitter and started doing what he did they'd be the laughing stock of the financial world. His reputation is the only thing keeping him afloat (in this specific case, he might still do great with SpaceX and Tesla but so what? People like Jobs, Buffet, Gates etc. also made significant blunders at some points in their career)
  - mirekrusin 4y ago
    It makes him more credible than random dudes on internet.
    - qwytw 4y ago
      Or you know... you could try looking at facts and data an try to form your own opinion.
      - mirekrusin 4y ago
        I think Musk did better homework on it than you.
        qwytw 4y ago
        Or maybe Musk has different goals. Anyway there is no need for you to be (I hope)purposefully obtuse...

mcv 4y ago

Yes, and that's why he's getting worshipped, and that's what's making him go off the rails here.

qwytw 4y ago

Any optimization he might do is unlikely to offset the cost of servicing the debt he offloaded to Twitter's balance sheet after the acquisition. So at 5% interest the yearly cost is 650 million, even at some obscene and unrealistic payroll per employee (including not only developers), like let's say 400k he'd have to fire over 1600 people just to balance this out. There is no way to spin this positively. Also due to no more RSUs cash comp for remaining employee would need to increase. Add to that the the loss in advertisement revenue do to obvious reasons. Taking these facts into account could you please explain how is Musk NOT a liability to Twitter? He basically spent 31 billion (plus 13 billion he offload to Twitter) just to buy the trademark and the user base (and some proportion of advertisers...). From a financial standpoint that's an objectively terrible deal. Musk might have other goals and that's great but in no way this is comparable to Tesla or SpaceX. >But he did change the world with his companies already, didn't he? History is full of examples of extraordinary successful people who get blinded by their own success and start thinking that they are infallible. This ussually results which in pretty unhinged behavior when they get older. Musk does not seem like the most grounded person ever so he's likely at a much higher risk of this than almost every tech billionaire I can think of.

mirekrusin 4y ago
also: History is full of examples of extraordinary successful people [period]. Maybe somebody with Musk track record can be seen as more credible than some random "qwytw" on the internet? I mean incentives are on his side, aren't they? For one his famous. It's his toy, so he won't let it disappear into irrelevance without fighting for it. There are not many people currently alive with comparable track record, being recognized world wide, with deep pockets like him. What if in few years time from now people will be stepping on each other writing posts and books on how they really knew all of that from the beginning, that obviously he was right etc. - doesn't sound unreal or alien to me, quite opposite actually. To be honest, I don't even think anything extraordinary needs to happen for all of it to work out just fine. For all people saying technically it's not just rendering short messages - well it is just that at the end. Look at stackoverflow - most people don't realize it's just single monolith application running on 6 servers - all of it. There are still thousands of people employed there, which feels like too many if anything.