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> I very frequently get the question: “What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” That’s a very interesting question. I almost never get the question: “What’

> I very frequently get the question: “What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” That’s a very interesting question. I almost never get the question: “What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?” And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two. You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. In our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. Also Bezos (paraphrased): "While working at D.E. Shaw, I heard that the internet was growing at 2,300% per year. And I asked myself: 'what kind of business makes sense to start in the context of that kind of growth?'" The Holy Grail is when a big change allows you to get a foothold in solving a fundamental, unchanging problem better than it has been solved before - and then leveraging that foothold with rapid iteration and growth.

makestuff 4y ago
I wonder if back in 1990s people were as skeptical of the internet as they are of the metaverse/web3/crypto/autonomous driving today. All of the big money bets seem to be in these areas, and I wonder if there were a similar group of 4-5 industries that all of the money was going to in the 90s only for the internet to win out in the end as the best returns for investors.
- tabtab 4y ago
  "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." ― Yogi Berra For every ten IT trends/fads, roughly only one has staying power in my observation. The others often move into niches or fade. If anyone was that good at predicting the diamonds from the duds, they'd be golfing with Warren Buffett instead of poking around Hacker News. Note that I thought the internet had big potential in the late 90's, as I was getting hooked on Compuserve (a precursor to webbish things). I just didn't think it would ruin biz CRUD/GUI's, rather staying in the consumer lane.
- galdosdi 4y ago
  I remember that time, and no, it was nothing like crypto. A better analogy would be electric vehicles today. Yes, a loose analogy can be made in that there was a hyped technology that some people thought might become huge, others thought might merely become large or medium sized, and most others were pretty unaware or didn't care. Unlike with crypto, during the late 90s internet/PC/web usage explosion, though, there were decades of successful smaller scale use (BBSes, academic use of the internet, etc). It was just a matter of scaling it up. The future was already here, just unevenly distributed. Unlike crypto, a lot of the usages were not just emotionally exciting, but actually practical. You could look up a stock quote right away instead of looking at an outdated quote in the paper, or calling a broker on the phone, or having a dedicated fancy service just for that. You could email a friend half way around the world. You could read the full text of a book for free, if it was from before 1923. In general, you could transmit information freely and cheaply across the world -- as long as both recipient and sender were on the internet somehow. All of those things previously were not possible that easily. There were faxes and landline phones already, but they had their obvious limitations. Crypto is totally different. It's been hyped for two decades and, except for illegal activities, still hasn't enabled anything that could not be done more efficiently with SQL database to track who owns what, and a system of courts and law enforcement to enforce property rights and enforce contracts. If you think they are similar you probably don't remember just how different it was to not have a single simple easy way to get and receive information. You had to actually go specific places or talk to specific people. You would do stuff like check movie times in the newspaper, and make specific plans to meet people at specific times. I still remember when Tell Me came out. It was a phone number interface to some basic internet applications like weather, news, sports, movie times. You called 1-800-TELL-ME and followed the prompts. It was massively popular. Where is crypto's TellMe moment? Nowhere. The only useful thing I've ever been able to do with crypto is accidentally profit $8000 because I forgot I had owned some I had bought as a joke... which came directly out of someone else's pocket later when it crashed. If you're looking for a historical analogy, tulipmania is a good one. So is the boom in joint stock companies in the 1600s. So is the plank road boom of the late 1800s. Nobody had as strong opinions about the internet being a horrifying scam, like many do about crypto. Because it wasn't, and there was no reason to think it was. The main "issue" was, would it catch on? Was it too nerdy? I mean, it's not like now, where the internet is almost slightly cool to some young people. Buying a modem was extremely uncool. And it cost a lot of money. So it was more of a question of "Is it really ready for prime time yet or does it need to become easier to use and cheaper?" much like EVs today. And, again, like EVs today, the problem was solved gradually but exponentially... each succeessive cost decrease or simplicity increase lead to another wave of converts, which made the whole thing more useful, solving the chicken and egg problem gradually

makestuff 4y ago

I wonder if back in 1990s people were as skeptical of the internet as they are of the metaverse/web3/crypto/autonomous driving today. All of the big money bets seem to be in these areas, and I wonder if there were a similar group of 4-5 industries that all of the money was going to in the 90s only for the internet to win out in the end as the best returns for investors.

tabtab 4y ago
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." ― Yogi Berra For every ten IT trends/fads, roughly only one has staying power in my observation. The others often move into niches or fade. If anyone was that good at predicting the diamonds from the duds, they'd be golfing with Warren Buffett instead of poking around Hacker News. Note that I thought the internet had big potential in the late 90's, as I was getting hooked on Compuserve (a precursor to webbish things). I just didn't think it would ruin biz CRUD/GUI's, rather staying in the consumer lane.
galdosdi 4y ago
I remember that time, and no, it was nothing like crypto. A better analogy would be electric vehicles today. Yes, a loose analogy can be made in that there was a hyped technology that some people thought might become huge, others thought might merely become large or medium sized, and most others were pretty unaware or didn't care. Unlike with crypto, during the late 90s internet/PC/web usage explosion, though, there were decades of successful smaller scale use (BBSes, academic use of the internet, etc). It was just a matter of scaling it up. The future was already here, just unevenly distributed. Unlike crypto, a lot of the usages were not just emotionally exciting, but actually practical. You could look up a stock quote right away instead of looking at an outdated quote in the paper, or calling a broker on the phone, or having a dedicated fancy service just for that. You could email a friend half way around the world. You could read the full text of a book for free, if it was from before 1923. In general, you could transmit information freely and cheaply across the world -- as long as both recipient and sender were on the internet somehow. All of those things previously were not possible that easily. There were faxes and landline phones already, but they had their obvious limitations. Crypto is totally different. It's been hyped for two decades and, except for illegal activities, still hasn't enabled anything that could not be done more efficiently with SQL database to track who owns what, and a system of courts and law enforcement to enforce property rights and enforce contracts. If you think they are similar you probably don't remember just how different it was to not have a single simple easy way to get and receive information. You had to actually go specific places or talk to specific people. You would do stuff like check movie times in the newspaper, and make specific plans to meet people at specific times. I still remember when Tell Me came out. It was a phone number interface to some basic internet applications like weather, news, sports, movie times. You called 1-800-TELL-ME and followed the prompts. It was massively popular. Where is crypto's TellMe moment? Nowhere. The only useful thing I've ever been able to do with crypto is accidentally profit $8000 because I forgot I had owned some I had bought as a joke... which came directly out of someone else's pocket later when it crashed. If you're looking for a historical analogy, tulipmania is a good one. So is the boom in joint stock companies in the 1600s. So is the plank road boom of the late 1800s. Nobody had as strong opinions about the internet being a horrifying scam, like many do about crypto. Because it wasn't, and there was no reason to think it was. The main "issue" was, would it catch on? Was it too nerdy? I mean, it's not like now, where the internet is almost slightly cool to some young people. Buying a modem was extremely uncool. And it cost a lot of money. So it was more of a question of "Is it really ready for prime time yet or does it need to become easier to use and cheaper?" much like EVs today. And, again, like EVs today, the problem was solved gradually but exponentially... each succeessive cost decrease or simplicity increase lead to another wave of converts, which made the whole thing more useful, solving the chicken and egg problem gradually