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The phrase "Tesla killers" needs to be killed. Every EV maker sells every EV they make. EVs are supply constrained. When a legacy manufacturer or EV startup ad

by bhauer 4y ago

The phrase "Tesla killers" needs to be killed. Every EV maker sells every EV they make. EVs are supply constrained. When a legacy manufacturer or EV startup adds to the EV supply, it takes from ICE vehicle market share, not Tesla market share. So any new EV is an ICE killer, not a Tesla killer. The majority of people buying EVs from legacy brands are doing so because they are fans of those brands; they weren't going to be buying a Tesla anyway. And even those who considered Tesla and chose another brand do not result in a lost sale to Tesla since someone else will buy that unit. Demand exceeds supply. Another faux pas the article makes is assuming that the number of models has any meaningful relationship to the number of units delivered to customers. Tesla continues to dominate the world EV market with just four models: a mid-size sedan, a CUV, a full-size sedan, and a mid-size SUV. It doesn't matter if you have 11, 14, or 30 models in the pipeline if you simply cannot manufacture as many units because of battery constraints or whatever excuse applies at the moment. It's also bizarre to see Tesla's very high R&D capital efficiency as a liability: > Tesla, by contrast, has spent less in total vehicle R&D since 2008 than Toyota and Mercedes-Benz each spent in 2020 alone. Toyota has essentially nothing of note in the BEV space to show for their big R&D expenditures in 2020, aside from the underwhelming BZ4X. The article claims traditional OEMs are poised to out-produce Tesla with no explanation of how they expect to achieve Tesla's current production rate, let alone Tesla's future production rate with two big factories spinning up in Austin and Berlin. Don't get me wrong. I really like the looks of several EVs from the likes of Polestar and Nio. But it's clickbait to call these "Tesla killers." Just be honest: they are ICE killers.

Maarten88 4y ago
All true, it will take a while for EV supply to catch up with demand, and Tesla is in a very good position, they seem to have locked in a lot of battery supply, their production is very efficient and they have much better margins than all other manufacturers. Most traditional manufacturers sell EV´s at a loss, and talk about 50% EV´s in 2030, which seems far to little too late, I think they´ll need to move much faster if they want to avoid bankruptcy. I do think Tesla´s position is very similar to Ford´s position over a hundred years ago. Ford initially had all the same advantages with the T model. Yet Ford was overtaken in the 1920´s by GM who started segmenting the market, giving customers different brands, models and options to choose from. For the coming years no manufacturer will be able to really compete with Tesla, but I do think Tesla will need to introduce more models and start covering more niches in the car market.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > For the coming years no manufacturer will be able to really compete with Tesla If you look at it by brand, Tesla is the best selling EV brand in Europe in 2022: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2022 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2022 But Volkswagen, for example, owns many brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Porsche, etc.) and its EV sales are split across many models. By auto group, Volkswagen is the biggest EV maker in Europe. Tesla has gone from number 1 in 2019 to number 3 so far this year: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y... The EV model segmentation you're talking about is already happening.
timbit42 4y ago
If there aren't enough batteries, we should be focused on PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles). They use 1/5th the amount of batteries but provide 90% of the electric driving as an EV because 90% of trips are less than 50 kms. You only use fuel if you go beyond 50 kms. We could have 5 times as many vehicles reducing fuel usage by 90% instead of having 1/5th the EVs reducing fuel usage by 100%. Also, when the battery on a PHEV runs out, it switches to hybrid mode which is still more efficient than and ICE. Additionally, with a PHEV, you don't have range anxiety and don't need a supercharger network. With 1/5th the batteries, you can charge overnight on 120v instead of having to install an expensive 240v charger at your home. Of course, a PHEV is more complex than an EV, requiring oil changes, etc., but their engines are smaller, more efficient because they run at their optimal RPM, and aren't strained like engines in ICE vehicles. Consumer Reports claims hybrids and plug-in hybrids are very, very reliable.

by bhauer 4y ago

Maarten88 4y ago

All true, it will take a while for EV supply to catch up with demand, and Tesla is in a very good position, they seem to have locked in a lot of battery supply, their production is very efficient and they have much better margins than all other manufacturers. Most traditional manufacturers sell EV´s at a loss, and talk about 50% EV´s in 2030, which seems far to little too late, I think they´ll need to move much faster if they want to avoid bankruptcy. I do think Tesla´s position is very similar to Ford´s position over a hundred years ago. Ford initially had all the same advantages with the T model. Yet Ford was overtaken in the 1920´s by GM who started segmenting the market, giving customers different brands, models and options to choose from. For the coming years no manufacturer will be able to really compete with Tesla, but I do think Tesla will need to introduce more models and start covering more niches in the car market.

clouddrover 4y ago
> For the coming years no manufacturer will be able to really compete with Tesla If you look at it by brand, Tesla is the best selling EV brand in Europe in 2022: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2022 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2022 But Volkswagen, for example, owns many brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Porsche, etc.) and its EV sales are split across many models. By auto group, Volkswagen is the biggest EV maker in Europe. Tesla has gone from number 1 in 2019 to number 3 so far this year: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y... The EV model segmentation you're talking about is already happening.

timbit42 4y ago

If there aren't enough batteries, we should be focused on PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles). They use 1/5th the amount of batteries but provide 90% of the electric driving as an EV because 90% of trips are less than 50 kms. You only use fuel if you go beyond 50 kms. We could have 5 times as many vehicles reducing fuel usage by 90% instead of having 1/5th the EVs reducing fuel usage by 100%. Also, when the battery on a PHEV runs out, it switches to hybrid mode which is still more efficient than and ICE. Additionally, with a PHEV, you don't have range anxiety and don't need a supercharger network. With 1/5th the batteries, you can charge overnight on 120v instead of having to install an expensive 240v charger at your home. Of course, a PHEV is more complex than an EV, requiring oil changes, etc., but their engines are smaller, more efficient because they run at their optimal RPM, and aren't strained like engines in ICE vehicles. Consumer Reports claims hybrids and plug-in hybrids are very, very reliable.